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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 31, 2020 8:48:31 GMT -6
 This came up in my Facebook memory for this day, the Sunset Hills tornado on New Years Eve 2010. Wow... do I remember that day. Has it really been 10 years? |
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 31, 2020 8:48:44 GMT -6
Plan to do a moderate to heavy pretreat on my lots that are open overnight and tomorrow. Which with the holiday is only half of my clients list.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 31, 2020 8:51:12 GMT -6
Saturday evening/night looks like a nice bonus snow potential if we can saturate. The 500mb low is in a great position...we just lack moisture.
Still... I wouldn't be surprised to see some 1-2 totals from that thing. Maybe wishcasting...who knows.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 31, 2020 8:56:31 GMT -6
The RAP and Hrrrr continue to look nasty tonight. It will be interesting to see how they trend throughout the day.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 31, 2020 9:09:52 GMT -6
The following is a list of good things that happened in 2020:
That is all.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 31, 2020 9:26:58 GMT -6
The gfs and NAM are definitely on their own with the warmer solution. They are a lot cooler that two days ago , but a much less impactful event for sure.
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 31, 2020 9:35:45 GMT -6
RGEM goes absolutely bonkers over the area. No way we stay cold that long. Correct. These Canadian models have a definitive cold bias. In fact that model initialized local temps several degrees too cold at 12z right out of the gate. 22F vs. 25F at KSTL and 20F vs. 23F at KSUS. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 31, 2020 9:44:25 GMT -6
The gfs and NAM are definitely on their own with the warmer solution. They are a lot cooler that two days ago , but a much less impactful event for sure. The last couple runs of both have trended colder and icier. I just glanced at the 06z euro earlier but it looked a little colder than the 00z run |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 31, 2020 9:53:55 GMT -6
I think the gems are a little to cold and the gfs and NAM are a little to warm. It will probably be somewhere between the two sets .
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Post by mchafin on Dec 31, 2020 10:02:15 GMT -6
So it’s the battle between a too cold solution and a warming up too fast solution? The GEM and RGEM have been consistent and insistent. The GFS and NAM have been waffling. Which will win? Find out next time on Another World!
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 31, 2020 10:10:08 GMT -6
With east to northeasterly surface winds at the onset of precip I can see cold air hanging on just a bit longer than modeled in the metro. But as the low approaches both the NAM/GFS lift the freezing (melting) line up to Hannibal by morning. Even if that's too far north I think conditions are going to be just too marginal for efficient ice accumulation. Still should be at least a brief window for some ice accumulation, especially considering some dry advection initially, but I think nothing too crazy.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 31, 2020 10:37:03 GMT -6
With east to northeasterly surface winds at the onset of precip I can see cold air hanging on just a bit longer than modeled in the metro. But as the low approaches both the NAM/GFS lift the freezing (melting) line up to Hannibal by morning. Even if that's too far north I think conditions are going to be just too marginal for efficient ice accumulation. Still should be at least a brief window for some ice accumulation, especially considering some dry advection initially, but I think nothing too crazy. These are my thoughts as well. Sleet at the onset could make for a higher impact event, but zr totals should be limited. Then, with temps warming above freezing, the window of impact is further limited. Looking ahead, a major SSW is underway and a PV displacement is likely by January 6/7. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 31, 2020 10:40:13 GMT -6
My thinking is the sleet makes for a rough couple hours in the middle of the night, but with quick improvement.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Dec 31, 2020 10:50:02 GMT -6
WC what will the SSW do to our weather and chances of cold and snow
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 31, 2020 10:54:55 GMT -6
A major strat warming usually brings it's major cold and storm changes to europe or Asia. While we get nice and warm. Sometimes though we can get lucky and get cold and stormy here. There are signs of a bigtime negative west based NAO developing too, which could help. Or maybe suppress things too much. We shall see.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 31, 2020 10:55:34 GMT -6
Ukmet brings maybe an inch of snow on Saturday evening.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 31, 2020 11:05:13 GMT -6
Interesting looking pattern developing as we head into the new year. Usually a monster ridge over northern Canada combined with a monster trough near Alaska would mean warm weather here but there’s a signal for ridging over the western US and troughing over the southern US that could make things interesting around here. The GFS has a blitz of short waves that don’t have a ton of cold to work with but want to take favorable tracks for winter weather around here  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2020 11:10:32 GMT -6
Looking more likely we'll get a parting shot from the ULL center Friday evening per the HRRR/RAP and 3KM NAM hints at it as well but northwest of the metro. Still pretty stout lift for a couple hours could yield 1-2" of snow if it's cold enough or at least a mixture of precip. When I said earlier that this is a messy system with pieces behind I meant it. Looks like Friday PM and Saturday are testament to that idea.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2020 11:12:15 GMT -6
Interesting looking pattern developing as we head into the new year. Usually a monster ridge over northern Canada combined with a monster trough near Alaska would mean warm weather here but there’s a signal for ridging over the western US and troughing over the southern US that could make things interesting around here. The GFS has a blitz of short waves that don’t have a ton of cold to work with but want to take favorable tracks for winter weather around here Southern jet alive and well so if nothing else we'll have systems to track rather than weeks of sunshine and boring-ness. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 31, 2020 11:13:51 GMT -6
That monster near 920 low in the north Pacific near the Bering Sea is a beaut on satellite.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 31, 2020 11:16:05 GMT -6
A major strat warming usually brings it's major cold and storm changes to europe or Asia. While we get nice and warm. Sometimes though we can get lucky and get cold and stormy here. There are signs of a bigtime negative west based NAO developing too, which could help. Or maybe suppress things too much. We shall see. An eventual split could have wide ranging impacts. Initial warmth is common in the eastern US, but we will likely see impacts by the back half of January that are more favorable |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2020 11:27:07 GMT -6
Global patterns would be textbook perfect for an epic Winter except for the Pacific that doesn't want to play nice. As long as troughing remains on the gulf of Alaska into the northwest and a screaming Japan to USA jet stream continues then it's going to be tough to get any favorable pattern lasting. If it was March or April we'd be talking about epic severe weather potential but not there yet. If the pattern continues it could be a early but very noisy/busy Spring likely followed by a moderate drought developing in Summer with ridge favored to be overhead if the La Nina holds out. Long range ideas...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 31, 2020 11:32:25 GMT -6
Global patterns would be textbook perfect for an epic Winter except for the Pacific that doesn't want to play nice. As long as troughing remains on the gulf of Alaska into the northwest and a screaming Japan to USA jet stream continues then it's going to be tough to get any favorable pattern lasting. If it was March or April we'd be talking about epic severe weather potential but not there yet. If the pattern continues it could be a early but very noisy/busy Spring likely followed by a moderate drought developing in Summer with ridge favored to be overhead if the La Nina holds out. Long range ideas... On one of his streams recently Reed Timmer described the upcoming tornado season as “historic” and “record breaking” so it will probably be well below average lol |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2020 11:38:09 GMT -6
Central Gulf Coast and parts of Dixie Alley getting a taste apparently today. Expect that to continue with increasing frequency as we push through mid-late January lasting into early March than shifting our way mid-March into late April/Early May before the 'tap shuts off' and we enter into a drier hotter pattern.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 31, 2020 11:42:31 GMT -6
I predict the summer of 2030 will be brutal.
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 31, 2020 11:58:08 GMT -6
Global patterns would be textbook perfect for an epic Winter except for the Pacific that doesn't want to play nice. As long as troughing remains on the gulf of Alaska into the northwest and a screaming Japan to USA jet stream continues then it's going to be tough to get any favorable pattern lasting. If it was March or April we'd be talking about epic severe weather potential but not there yet. If the pattern continues it could be a early but very noisy/busy Spring likely followed by a moderate drought developing in Summer with ridge favored to be overhead if the La Nina holds out. Long range ideas... On one of his streams recently Reed Timmer described the upcoming tornado season as “historic” and “record breaking” so it will probably be well below average lol Ha yeah. La Nina Springs do tend to have increased severe weather but it's not Reed if it's not hype. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 31, 2020 12:09:14 GMT -6
Euro came in a little warmer, closer to the gfs now
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 31, 2020 12:15:42 GMT -6
Euro came in a little warmer, closer to the gfs now FRAM map was basically identical the the one I posted last night. It really increases ice totals east to west across the metro |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 31, 2020 12:20:16 GMT -6
Euro came in a little warmer, closer to the gfs now FRAM map was basically identical the the one I posted last night. It really increases ice totals east to west across the metro So more ice accumulation than 00z for the metro? When do surface temps get above freezing on that run? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 31, 2020 12:23:27 GMT -6
FRAM map was basically identical the the one I posted last night. It really increases ice totals east to west across the metro So more ice accumulation than 00z for the metro? When do surface temps get above freezing on that run?  |
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