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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2020 21:28:12 GMT -6
RGEM would be a beefy little ice storm, probably overdone but wow , temps in upper 20’s with a lot of moisture keeps the low well south’s d east FRAM output is widespread .50” accretion. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 30, 2020 21:36:05 GMT -6
That’s pretty beefy
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 30, 2020 21:39:20 GMT -6
The rgem should come with a cold bias disclaimer
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Post by landscaper on Dec 30, 2020 21:43:38 GMT -6
Very true , but it has a lot of other support from pretty much every model except the gfs and NAM . Euro/Icon/HRRR/Ukmet are all cold as well. Not as cold but still decent amounts of ice. Definitely not a big storm but I could see some icing over night for sure.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 30, 2020 21:44:58 GMT -6
gfs ain't got time for that
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Post by landscaper on Dec 30, 2020 21:51:18 GMT -6
There’s no way it will warm as fast as the gfs is showing. It has mid 20 dew points and warms them up I’m six hours . With the low way down in Arkansas and a north east wind off the retreating high likely will not warm that quickly. I could be wrong , but I have seen this type of setup almost every year, and every year forecasters say how quickly the rain will take over , Then we end up salting like 5-6 more hours than forecast due to the stubborn temp rise.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2020 22:22:59 GMT -6
GEM continues to be just a tad icy  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 30, 2020 22:25:53 GMT -6
maybe by this time tomorrow we'll know how icy, lol. My guess is about a tenth of an inch. On elevated surfaces .
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 30, 2020 22:26:45 GMT -6
NWS' 50 degrees on Friday not looking so hot. Likely won't get out of the mid to upper 30s at best.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 30, 2020 22:26:50 GMT -6
Sounding over the metro from the hrrr when it really gets cranking  That would be ice. But that is a really warm and wide region aloft. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 30, 2020 22:29:02 GMT -6
We are looking at seeing next to nothing frozen from this.
Maybe the NW 1/3 or 1/4th.
That's it
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Post by landscaper on Dec 30, 2020 22:55:19 GMT -6
Is the Ukmet out yet . I’m sure this will not be a big deal , if it were 2-3 degrees colder we would have a nice storm. I think I could easily see .10-.20” out past wentzville but the further south you go definitely less. We should have a better idea mid tomorrow the extended rap should be out soon. It usually has a warm bias , it will be interesting to see what it is showing.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2020 23:00:58 GMT -6
03z RAP joins the tad bit icy party
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Post by landscaper on Dec 30, 2020 23:02:24 GMT -6
RAP is pretty icy to , keeps temps around 30-31 through 7-8 am Friday. .50” liquid. This is one of those storms that really needs 1-2 degrees colder otherwise we will see very little effects.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 30, 2020 23:03:40 GMT -6
Snow is the Ukmet out yet ?
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Post by amstilost on Dec 30, 2020 23:17:11 GMT -6
I have been trying for 2-1/2 to 3 weeks to get materials to be able to safely hook up a medium generator to panel box. Deliveries and back logged items have been terrible. I got some stuff to at least do a partial which involved shutting off 200 amp main breaker in panel box. The breaker would not turn off. Go figure. After talking with pro's the suggestion was to get a whole new panel box with new breakers because of the price of a new 200 amp breaker for the old box. Then they said if I could even find one because they are discontinued. Anyway, long story short, after looking up breakers for the old panel box I found one for $130.00. There is no way in #$@% I could have bought a new panel with breakers for anything close to that price. I ordered that at 9:30am yesterday. UPS delivered it today at noon. I was shocked (heh heh) to say the least. Hopefully I can get that installed tomorrow. I figured we would get ice only because I haven't got it installed yet.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2020 23:24:02 GMT -6
Snow is the Ukmet out yet ? It looks pretty similar to the GEM. Surface low goes from Little Rock to Paducah to Indy. Warm sector never even sniffs to metro. Icing potential looks pretty high |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 30, 2020 23:31:26 GMT -6
Nice, I’m sure the euro will continue its colder more southern route as well. Post euro ice accumulation if you can later when they come out
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 30, 2020 23:43:15 GMT -6
Ukmet is an ice storm. Trend continues.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 31, 2020 0:01:44 GMT -6
Euro brings pretty decent ice to western counties. 33 and rain for eastern counties. Will be interesting to watch this unfold.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 31, 2020 0:03:52 GMT -6
Euro FRAM output. Continues sagging SE  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 31, 2020 1:24:51 GMT -6
Euro FRAM output. Continues sagging SE Ouch? I haven't checked any models today or been in here much. So there is some ice possible now?? |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 31, 2020 2:34:19 GMT -6
Good morning crew...
A messy forecast for tonight into early Friday.
Precip start-time has been nudged back a bit but I hesitate to go as far as the models. These wrapped up systems have a tendency to fling the WAA belt of precip up from the south much faster than modeled...so I'm going with a start time near or just before midnight.
Precip types... no question in my mind this will start as a mix of sleet and freezing rain...or maybe just sleet. Wet bulb temps at the onset are several degrees below freezing over a fairly deep layer below the warm bubble. The sleet may actually be somewhat heavy for a period of time which is concerning because as we know that can be a game changer when it comes to road conditions in otherwise marginal temperature set-ups. Fortunately, the magnitude of the warm air aloft continues to look substantial enough to cause major hydrometer (raindrop) warming before the drops re-enter subfreezing air near the surface. This will be especially true after 3AM and up through sunrise.
My thoughts are the worst of the weather will be in the Midnight to 4am timeframe... when there is likely to be more sleet. This is when road conditions may get nasty. After 4am... temperatures will warm quite a bit above the surface allowing for a transition to mainly freezing rain. The precipitation rates may be heavy enough at that point to wash the sleet off the roads before the rain can freeze on the road decks. The trees will pick up a decent coating of ice...but I think most areas will remain below 1/4 inch of ice accumulation on the trees. The exception may be up in the cold northwest... from Carrolton back to near Hermann... where ice accumulation will be a bit heavier.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 31, 2020 2:57:12 GMT -6
Good morning crew... A messy forecast for tonight into early Friday. Precip start-time has been nudged back a bit but I hesitate to go as far as the models. These wrapped up systems have a tendency to fling the WAA belt of precip up from the south much faster than modeled...so I'm going with a start time near or just before midnight. Precip types... no question in my mind this will start as a mix of sleet and freezing rain...or maybe just sleet. Wet bulb temps at the onset are several degrees below freezing over a fairly deep layer below the warm bubble. The sleet may actually be somewhat heavy for a period of time which is concerning because as we know that can be a game changer when it comes to road conditions in otherwise marginal temperature set-ups. Fortunately, the magnitude of the warm air aloft continues to look substantial enough to cause major hydrometer (raindrop) warming before the drops re-enter subfreezing air near the surface. This will be especially true after 3AM and up through sunrise. My thoughts are the worst of the weather will be in the Midnight to 4am timeframe... when there is likely to be more sleet. This is when road conditions may get nasty. After 4am... temperatures will warm quite a bit above the surface allowing for a transition to mainly freezing rain. The precipitation rates may be heavy enough at that point to wash the sleet off the roads before the rain can freeze on the road decks. The trees will pick up a decent coating of ice...but I think most areas will remain below 1/4 inch of ice accumulation on the trees. The exception may be up in the cold northwest... from Carrolton back to near Hermann... where ice accumulation will be a bit heavier. Sounds like a nasty window of concern for roads. That and the drunks trying to wash their 2020 memories away, then driving home afterwards. Sounds like a mess to me. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2020 7:15:39 GMT -6
HRRR trending colder and faster. Not good news especially on a holiday or anyday for that matter in this case. Trends continue we could have a significant event on our hands. Saving grace is that it will warm up once precip clears as well as heavy rates will dampen acceleration a bit but things seem to be trending in a worsening direction as far as affects go.
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Post by WeatherLes on Dec 31, 2020 7:41:42 GMT -6
Hello all. Good to see there is still a chat going on. I’ve been off the chat since 2014, I see a few from back then and a bunch of new ones. Looking forward to joining the chat again. Hope everyone has a Happy and safe new year.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 31, 2020 7:47:47 GMT -6
Bellville, your right, even the Normally warm rap has a pretty big hit of ice with temps 29-30 . Lows right now are 22-25 across the area. We will only rise into the low maybe -mid 30’s today. You take cold ground temps and throw a couple hours of sleet then freezing rain there’s going to be some serious slick roads from 12-am -6am . The sleet is always such a game changer. It cools the pavement so quickly and takes so much salt/chemicals to melt it.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 31, 2020 8:17:57 GMT -6
Bellville, your right, even the Normally warm rap has a pretty big hit of ice with temps 29-30 . Lows right now are 22-25 across the area. We will only rise into the low maybe -mid 30’s today. You take cold ground temps and throw a couple hours of sleet then freezing rain there’s going to be some serious slick roads from 12-am -6am . The sleet is always such a game changer. It cools the pavement so quickly and takes so much salt/chemicals to melt it. Yeah... the sleet potential is what caught my eye more this morning. The longer the sleet holds on... the worse it will be. |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Dec 31, 2020 8:37:35 GMT -6
 This came up in my Facebook memory for this day, the Sunset Hills tornado on New Years Eve 2010. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 31, 2020 8:46:35 GMT -6
RGEM goes absolutely bonkers over the area. No way we stay cold that long.
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