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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 31, 2020 14:20:29 GMT -6
Hi res nam looks like it tries to squeeze in some showers around 8-9 through the metro. Like it’s been said many times, WAA always comes in full speed ahead. The simulated radars show some precip breaking out late evening originating above 650mb. The mid level lift rockets through here after midnight. Then the low level jet brings the most potent slug of precip but those winds wrap Westward as the system occludes then weakens. This system never really fires on all cylinders for anyone. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 31, 2020 14:48:19 GMT -6
hi res nam is awesome..maybe a half to 1 inch of snow. lol
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2020 15:10:41 GMT -6
RPDS/RGEM going for broke on it's Ice Storm. Even colder and longer lasting yielding near an inch of modeled ice.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2020 15:11:25 GMT -6
HRRR actually trending a bit west and a tad warmer. Possibly in response to the few degrees warmer temps than expected due to earlier sun.
RAP might be starting to do the same.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2020 15:13:29 GMT -6
This will likely turn into a RDPS/RGEM verses the world game in terms of last model standing.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2020 15:32:33 GMT -6
RDPS not half bad for Saturday Evening either especially along and east of the Mississippi River.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 31, 2020 15:32:36 GMT -6
Snip bit from the AFD
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 31, 2020 15:38:55 GMT -6
The guy who operates WxRisk.com says that the SSWE/PV Split will be a cause of warm weather in the east central US due to the vortex over North America being 'Football Shaped' over northern Canada.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 31, 2020 15:39:57 GMT -6
The WPC freezing rain probabilities are focused on the northwest side of I-44.  |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Dec 31, 2020 15:46:29 GMT -6
High of 31* so far today at KFAM
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 31, 2020 15:47:25 GMT -6
The guy who operates WxRisk.com says that the SSWE/PV Split will be a cause of warm weather in the east central US due to the vortex over North America being 'Football Shaped' over northern Canada. uh, I just read his post on fb. He says by mid january he expects a major pattern change to cold and stormy across the eastern part of the country. The pacific airmasses will be cutoff. one split lobe of the PV will come into eastern CA and US. As of now. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 31, 2020 15:49:17 GMT -6
I could definitely see some road issues at a bad time tonight especially if there’s a thump of sleet on the front end. Heck, we haven’t gotten above 30 in Perryville today.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 31, 2020 15:50:56 GMT -6
33* here. Highest its been all day.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 31, 2020 15:51:22 GMT -6
Always a crap shoot with the polar vortex drama, we’ve been sucked into that nonsense one to many times. I will believe it once the cold air starts heading our way any we see a train of HP’s coming out of Canada with the cold air. There are several drivers that suggest a decent pattern 15th -1st of February
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 31, 2020 15:51:50 GMT -6
High of 31* so far today at KFAM Yes just hit 31 here after my last post. I foresee some slick roads out in those hills tonight. Could be a problem with alcohol involved. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 31, 2020 15:53:36 GMT -6
We’re 33 now in wentzville, got up to 34 . The good thing is the dew points are 23-25 that will help for a while and actually pull temperatures down a degree or two at the onset. It would be nice to drop into the 28-29 range this evening.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 31, 2020 15:57:15 GMT -6
Key thing to watch tonight will be wet bulb temps. You can actually still get accretion at temps just above freezing if the wet bulb temp is below freezing. That’s assuming the rain drops aren’t to warm or big which could be an issue tonight
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 31, 2020 15:59:24 GMT -6
Staying home and celebrating from the couch tonight just to be safe. Hope others do the same or pack a bag and wait it out till morning.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 31, 2020 16:00:57 GMT -6
Staying home and celebrating from the couch tonight just to be safe. Hope others do the same or pack a bag and wait it out till morning. I was supposed to visit a friend tonight in Washington, chose to stay home in Mascoutah. |
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Post by mchafin on Dec 31, 2020 16:11:14 GMT -6
Staying home and celebrating from the couch tonight just to be safe. Hope others do the same or pack a bag and wait it out till morning. Staying home as well to make sure the couch doesn't go anywhere and the TV works. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 31, 2020 16:27:30 GMT -6
Key thing to watch tonight will be wet bulb temps. You can actually still get accretion at temps just above freezing if the wet bulb temp is below freezing. That’s assuming the rain drops aren’t to warm or big which could be an issue tonight  Yeah on the 18z GFS by tomorrow at 6am the warm wedge from 750mb down to 900mb will be most prominent at 800 mb where rain drops will be 37-38*. The cold shallow layer at that time from 900mb to the surface will be most prominent at 950 mb where 37-38* raindrops will fall into a 28-29* environment. The cold shallow layer will need to be stronger than that for sufficient ice accretion by sunrise. The HRRR/NAM have that colder shallow layer longer. We will see. At the end of the day, these are estimates and this is a now casting event! |
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iceman
Wishcaster
Arnold, MO
Posts: 104 
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Post by iceman on Dec 31, 2020 16:27:31 GMT -6
Still a good amount of blue sky here, clouds are definitely filling in though. Never got above 31. Will be an interesting night
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Post by dschreib on Dec 31, 2020 16:27:55 GMT -6
So more ice accumulation than 00z for the metro? When do surface temps get above freezing on that run?  If this was a snowfall map, I could 100% guarantee it would verify, simply because I live in the little part of St. Clair County, IL were there's a big fat 0. |
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Post by thechaser on Dec 31, 2020 16:28:01 GMT -6
Ice Storm Warnings for central Illinois.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 31, 2020 16:31:28 GMT -6
Happy New Year, everyone! I'm headed out to grab a bite to eat, get some groceries, and settle in for the night with a couple glasses of bourbon to ring (or is 'wring' more fitting?) out 2020. Probably a Four Roses Small Batch Select night tonight.
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 31, 2020 16:32:43 GMT -6
Glad tomorrow is a holiday and a brand new year! We are celebrating on the couch too, safe and warm! My honey had carpal tunnel surgery this pm so hunkered down! Enjoy the weather, whatever the weather may be tonight and tomorrow! Happy 2021!
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Post by grizzlebeard on Dec 31, 2020 16:36:59 GMT -6
I wondered about something like this. Will the sleet amount be enough to slow the warming at the surface layer and prolong the icing/freezing rain event? Seems like we have had that set up around here before. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 31, 2020 16:37:18 GMT -6
31 and clear here.
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Post by scmhack on Dec 31, 2020 16:47:48 GMT -6
All quiet on the western front 31F
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Dec 31, 2020 17:04:07 GMT -6
Got a new nifty temp gun for some concrete side work. Looks like eureka is primed for what ever falls to freeze  |
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