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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 13:05:56 GMT -6
good point 920.
EPS has .4 from i70 south thru Tues Morn
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 12, 2021 13:09:52 GMT -6
While reaching warning level of snow is still questionable, I wonder if the combo of brutal cold and the snow will make the NWS consider issuing watches/warnings. Accumulating snow with temps near zero is some very rare stuff around here and going to make the roads hell That’s a very good point ..... I would think they would post winter storm watches at least from St.Louis metro and points south and east ...... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2021 13:11:18 GMT -6
On this episode of "Is it Melting?"...
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 13:13:25 GMT -6
Lol. If we can stay clear through part of the night some areas need temps slashed in half
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 12, 2021 13:13:44 GMT -6
GFSv16 midweek upper level setup. Yes please  Locked and loaded! Midweek is more interesting to me than Sunday. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 13:15:51 GMT -6
Midweek is more interesting to me than Sunday. Me too, Since Sunday is nothing, and it's Sunday night and Monday.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 13:19:03 GMT -6
While reaching warning level of snow is still questionable, I wonder if the combo of brutal cold and the snow will make the NWS consider issuing watches/warnings. Accumulating snow with temps near zero is some very rare stuff around here and going to make the roads hell That’s a very good point ..... I would think they would post winter storm watches at least from St.Louis metro and points south and east ...... That would be my guess as well |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 12, 2021 13:20:03 GMT -6
It'll be real interesting to see what tonight and tomorrow show for these next 2 storms. Isnt it pretty rare to have two back to back snow storms like this so close together?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 13:28:31 GMT -6
Not bad. I'm still really concerned about this setup. I pray it works out. It has way to much bust potential.  free image hosting |
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 12, 2021 13:31:11 GMT -6
That’s a very good point ..... I would think they would post winter storm watches at least from St.Louis metro and points south and east ...... That would be my guess as well I can't remember the last time they issued a WSW 48 hrs before an event. The NWS St. Louis waits as long as possible. Maybe it's because we have all see the upper level dry air burn us too many times. But this storm on Sun-Mon as Snowstorm920 mentioned is a different beast that many of us aren't used to. I understand their logic, but it's important to give the public more lead time. Lives are more important than winter forecasting accuracy at the end of the day. I'd expect a WSW for the afternoon package tomorrow at the latest IF the model runs continue to hold course tonight and tomorrow to what was shown on the 12z runs today. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 13:32:43 GMT -6
Sparta IL at 3pm Monday on the nam. Absolutely going to see every last bit of moisture used for ice crystal growth. Almost the entire column from the surface to 30-40,000 feet is in the dgz with lift spread out. Really good for high ratios.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2021 13:36:58 GMT -6
A lot of the omega is above the DGZ though. I think 15:1 or maybe 20:1 during max lift will cover it.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 13:42:52 GMT -6
The euro has a way to sloppy setup. Almost no defined area of vorticity. So large scale ascent is weak and generalised. We probably see WAA snow when the trough initially ejects but no chance for organized lift with the shortwave ripped into a broke quasi larger trough.  The name has a sharper trough and well defined vorticity.  The 12z models the name has the most defined vorticity. The regular gfs and ukmet are close. The rest are more like the European. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2021 13:46:27 GMT -6
Easy to see how the evolution of the PV lobe changes the outcome...the EC has more confluence and flattens out the wave as it approaches.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 13:49:03 GMT -6
Easy to see how the evolution of the PV lobe changes the outcome...the EC has more confluence and flattens out the wave as it approaches. Right and its the difference between 2-4" for the NW 1/3rd on the euro and 3-5" in the metro. While the name is 6"+ for 2/3rds of the metro. The name has like 20-1 ratios  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2021 13:52:15 GMT -6
My gut says the EC is holding back too much energy and not allowing the primary vort max to stay amplified. It tries to refocus on that digging wave behind it, which looks suspect to me. Either way, it still maintains a decent shortwave...so not a total bust.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 13:57:39 GMT -6
My gut says the EC is holding back too much energy and not allowing the primary vort max to stay amplified. It tries to refocus on that digging wave behind it, which looks suspect to me. Either way, it still maintains a decent shortwave...so not a total bust. There is definitely the room for a sharper more consolidated vorticity like the American models have. The models leading up to JANUARY 5TH 2014 were mostly to dry and weak and se with the vorticity |
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Post by perryville on Feb 12, 2021 14:14:40 GMT -6
Paducah went ahead and went with a winter storm watch. Starting with 4+“.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 14:17:58 GMT -6
Paducah went ahead and went with a winter storm watch. Starting with 4+“. Indianapolis office went with watches as well |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 14:25:09 GMT -6
18z NBM looks good. Upped totals a bit over the 12z run  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 14:37:00 GMT -6
SREF at 7.5..decent clustering between 5 and 10
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 14:45:01 GMT -6
18z NAM is a beast
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 14:45:07 GMT -6
Looks like the zone forecasts have increased accum. by an inch or 2. Was 2-3 total for Union..now 4-5
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Post by amstilost on Feb 12, 2021 14:47:41 GMT -6
SREF Plumes for 15z are promising for STL proper. Taking the high of 1.3"QPF(LOL) out and the low of .01" gets a respectable .5+ QPF and still on the rise at 06z 2/16. Total snow output seems low at over 7" given .5"QPF. And this is for STL. If there is more QPF south and east, even better. Looks to me the way the black 'mean' changes to a more gradual slope at 12z 2/15 is the second wave adding to totals. That would more than double my totals so far.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 14:47:57 GMT -6
And yeah NAM has snow depth around a foot, lol
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Post by amstilost on Feb 12, 2021 14:48:16 GMT -6
Curses, Knock it off Snowman
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 14:51:37 GMT -6
Winter storm watch for Houston /Galveston area, lol
Tulsa is going with a warning already
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 12, 2021 14:52:43 GMT -6
I won't post the graphic, but in the experimental land the 12Z GFDL SHIELD model (which is a 13km global with 3km CONUS nest version of the GFS/FV3) is showing some plus-sized snow depths resulting from this storm.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 14:54:41 GMT -6
Post it bdg, we can handle it
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 12, 2021 14:56:29 GMT -6
Assuming dud is defined as < 1.0" then there is only one dude in that 15Z SREF run.
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