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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 16:11:31 GMT -6
18z old GFS shows 3-6" across the area
18z GFSv16 shows 6-10" across the area
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 12, 2021 16:12:45 GMT -6
Not a huge fan of the reduction in numbers on the euro and 18z gfs. Nam sure is purty though.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 16:12:48 GMT -6
Both runs have a warning level snowfall in the metro
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2021 16:15:49 GMT -6
Would be nice to see them both tick up a little tonight
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 16:16:58 GMT -6
NWS just seems slow lately with these small events we've had. Issuing advisories in the middle of them instead of before. That really hasn't been the case before for a long time. I didn't expect a watch tonight, until I saw Indianapolis issue one for crying out loud. Tomorrow morning should be watches somewhere in the area.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 12, 2021 16:22:11 GMT -6
18Z going to be suppression city. there goes the football.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 16:22:54 GMT -6
Here's part of the disco from Springfield FWIW:
While a Winter Weather Advisory will almost certainly be needed,
probabilities for a 6"+ snowfall look fairly low (10-30% range) at
this point. We have therefore elected to not issue a Winter Storm
Watch. In addition to the low probabilities for 6+" snowfall,
this system also does not fit the conceptual model of a typical
heavy snow event across the Missouri Ozarks. Key features such as
the surface, 850 mb, and 700 mb lows look as if they may track
too far south. Nevertheless, continue to keep up with the forecast
as the main system has just now made it onshore across southern
California. Tweaks to snowfall amounts are still quite possible
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 12, 2021 16:24:13 GMT -6
GFSv16 actually better than 12Z, so just the regular GFS for now.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 16:25:18 GMT -6
18Z going to be suppression city. there goes the football.  |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 16:26:19 GMT -6
What do youean there goes the football all systems a go. Looks great.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2021 16:26:20 GMT -6
How do we get the 18z gfsv16 to be right about the late week system?
My God
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 16:32:34 GMT -6
Not everyday you see all of OK under a WSW and 95% of TX under watches and warning..oh and all of AR. Sheesh
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Post by dmbstl on Feb 12, 2021 16:36:24 GMT -6
I hope everyone isn't angry when St. Louis gets little or nothing out of this storm. Because that's probably what is going to happen.
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 12, 2021 16:36:49 GMT -6
Lol.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 16:47:52 GMT -6
40% probability of 4” or more Monday. Not bad  |
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 12, 2021 16:49:27 GMT -6
Wait, are we sure someone didn't turn the DGEX back on and accidently connect it to the Internet... |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 12, 2021 16:50:38 GMT -6
Lol, came on here to see the excitement from the v16. I must’ve been looking at the wrong thing.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 12, 2021 16:52:14 GMT -6
Look at the GFs v16 kuchera snowfall map. If we get half of that we will all be thrilled.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 16:53:38 GMT -6
Lol, came on here to see the excitement from the v16. I must’ve been looking at the wrong thing. It was beefy. Nice QPF bump from the 12z run. Hopefully that continues in the 00z run |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 12, 2021 16:56:55 GMT -6
John Fuller just gave an accumulation for the city of 4.7, calling it preliminary and subject to change over the weekend.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 17:00:08 GMT -6
John Fuller just gave an accumulation for the city of 4.7, calling it preliminary and subject to change over the weekend. Really? Hard to believe an accumulation down to the tenth of an inch could possibly change at all over 72 hours. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 17:12:31 GMT -6
There is still major reason for all of us to be a little reserved. There is a very good chance folks NW of 44/255/70 will completely miss out on the main system. And the initial WAA/vorticity driven precipitation can be very unpredictable. We really want this system to be like the nam shows. The new gfs is historic. It drives a 01/01/99 like scenario  image upload |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 17:14:28 GMT -6
The new GFS HAS A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH. definitely would help drive better wide spread Ascent.  image upload |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 12, 2021 17:15:22 GMT -6
Oh Friv if only!
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Post by dmbstl on Feb 12, 2021 17:16:56 GMT -6
John Fuller just gave an accumulation for the city of 4.7, calling it preliminary and subject to change over the weekend. Do you mean 4 to 7 inches? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2021 17:18:59 GMT -6
3 feet in Eastern OK...uh, what?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 12, 2021 17:19:01 GMT -6
John Fuller just gave an accumulation for the city of 4.7, calling it preliminary and subject to change over the weekend. Do you mean 4 to 7 inches? Not 100% certain but it looked like a decimal point to me |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 17:20:09 GMT -6
The name is exactly what we want. This is very similar to the shortwave setup we had in 2014. If the NAM came with a slightly more tilted trough and bent counterclockwise vorticity we would be in the wheel house for widespread 8-12"  The NAM is clearly slightly positively tilted. This prevents added jet support through convergence usually on the top side of the vorticity. Or top left. The NAM is really close to pulling something special together |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 12, 2021 17:23:35 GMT -6
It’s always good to consider something being close to “special” when it’s already laying down a foot.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 12, 2021 17:30:09 GMT -6
Both the 12Z GEFS and EPS means are about 0.3" QPF at the airport. At 15:1, which I think could end up being generous actually, that is about 4.5". Note that the Cobb method from the 18Z cycles of NAM and GFS are 11:1 and 13:1 respectively.
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