|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 17:31:06 GMT -6
What does the 18Z European show
|
|
giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
|
Post by giarC71 on Feb 12, 2021 17:36:03 GMT -6
When John just said about 2 inches and the latest models were south... And when the Springfield office isn't issuing any watches or warnings you have to be concerned. So the pros are taking smaller amounts compared to all these computer models. What do you see that the pros don't?
|
|
|
|
Post by scmhack on Feb 12, 2021 17:46:10 GMT -6
The fact I have to be at work no matter what on Monday tells me we're gonna get buried.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2021 17:50:26 GMT -6
How is it even possible for such low lsr? That makes no sense given the temps and upper air temps . There’s no way this isn’t at least 15-1 probably higher than that , you have snow falling when temps are 0-10 degrees.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 17:52:59 GMT -6
if it's 11:1 I expect to make a snowman with the 0 temps.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2021 17:57:06 GMT -6
How is it even possible for such low lsr? That makes no sense given the temps and upper air temps . There’s no way this isn’t at least 15-1 probably higher than that , you have snow falling when temps are 0-10 degrees. SLR is highly dependent on crystal growth and flake aggregation and soundings have suggested that much of the lift will be above the DGZ which isn't what you want for high SLRs. But 15:1 seems obtainable given the cold airmass and fairly low water content. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2021 17:57:22 GMT -6
They are very conservative someone else mentioned the NWS has been playing catch-up on every storm this year but one. It might not meet snow depth for a watch but the brutal cold and snow with some wind would definitely warrant it. I still think 3-6” for the metro is a good call right now, it covers you for the lower dry air solutions and gets you up there with the 6” mark . I doubt anyone in the metro sees 8” snow definitely a chance farther away south and East for sure where there’s better moisture. The NAM is on it’s own, this is the phase it blows things up for a run or two then will crash in one run right inline with all the other models.
|
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Feb 12, 2021 17:58:51 GMT -6
I still saw 4.7 on his map just that half hour! But Dallas might get 11”? I could cry! No fair!
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 18:00:40 GMT -6
Chris has 3-6 for metro and 6-10 from crawford and washington counties on south. With changes possible of course. He'll probably post the map on here soon. It's on FB
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 12, 2021 18:06:52 GMT -6
Sorry... been at work since midnight and just leaving. I will post my maps in here as part of a new thread later this evening when I get home.
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 12, 2021 18:11:17 GMT -6
Sorry... been at work since midnight and just leaving. I will post my maps in here as part of a new thread later this evening when I get home. That’s a crazy long day |
|
padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304
|
Post by padlur on Feb 12, 2021 18:11:51 GMT -6
Get some sleep already! You know next week will have some long days
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 18:16:09 GMT -6
What does the 18Z European show  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 18:16:22 GMT -6
18zEuro has about .4 for the area, .5 southern metro.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 18:17:13 GMT -6
Dammit 920. Lol. We need to exchange numbers and get our sh*t straight  |
|
|
|
Post by snowjunky on Feb 12, 2021 18:21:25 GMT -6
Where is that northern shift??
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 18:22:49 GMT -6
Dammit 920. Lol. We need to exchange numbers and get our sh*t straight I don’t know how we keep doing that but it’s hilarious |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Feb 12, 2021 18:23:54 GMT -6
How is it even possible for such low lsr? That makes no sense given the temps and upper air temps . There’s no way this isn’t at least 15-1 probably higher than that , you have snow falling when temps are 0-10 degrees. The NAM's 11:1 and GFS's 13:1 from the Cobb method is probably too low. I personally think 15:1 is reasonable. GFS's snow depth product implies 16:1. |
|
|
|
Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Feb 12, 2021 18:32:48 GMT -6
Chris has 3-6 for metro and 6-10 from crawford and washington counties on south. With changes possible of course. He'll probably post the map on here soon. It's on FB  |
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Feb 12, 2021 19:10:14 GMT -6
Chris has 3-6 for metro and 6-10 from crawford and washington counties on south. With changes possible of course. He'll probably post the map on here soon. It's on FB Great backyard bird count is this weekend. |
|
SLITHIS
Weather Weenie
O'Fallon, IL
Posts: 33
|
Post by SLITHIS on Feb 12, 2021 19:42:39 GMT -6
Chris has 3-6 for metro and 6-10 from crawford and washington counties on south. With changes possible of course. He'll probably post the map on here soon. It's on FB |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Feb 12, 2021 19:43:23 GMT -6
Chris has 3-6 for metro and 6-10 from crawford and washington counties on south. With changes possible of course. He'll probably post the map on here soon. It's on FB Great pic and perfect way to end a blog. |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 19:49:30 GMT -6
The 00Z NAM IS UNDERWAY...
MOST IMPORTANT MODEL RUN OF THIS DECADE RIGHT HERE
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Feb 12, 2021 19:53:48 GMT -6
18Z AccuWx 98 member ensemble (51-EPS, 21-GEFS, 26-SREF) is 0.35" QPF at the airport. At 15:1 that is 5.2".
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 12, 2021 19:53:48 GMT -6
Why do we almost always have the sharp cut off through our area!!!! Ugh...
|
|
mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
|
Post by mccarthb on Feb 12, 2021 19:56:17 GMT -6
Need that slight shift to the north. The nemesis of our model trends sending shortwaves further north with each passing day, time for us to be on the receiving end this time!
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 12, 2021 19:57:37 GMT -6
Its crazy how the heavier snow field on the models goes from OK into southwestern Mo only to stop before it gets here and then blows up again in southern Mo into the Ohio Valley.
|
|
|
|
Post by snowjunky on Feb 12, 2021 19:58:24 GMT -6
The 00Z NAM IS UNDERWAY... MOST IMPORTANT MODEL RUN OF THIS DECADE RIGHT HERE Come on FRIV!! Will this storm into our wheel house. |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Feb 12, 2021 20:04:29 GMT -6
SREF Plumes for 21z dropped a tick in QPF to roughly .43" and total snow to just above 6" through 6am Tuesday.
|
|
|
|
Post by TK on Feb 12, 2021 20:05:05 GMT -6
The shift North has not happened...I hope the NAM changes that...If not then it's an average snow storm....So disappointing as it is so close to kaboom yet so far....
|
|
