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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 20:13:13 GMT -6
The shift North has not happened...I hope the NAM changes that...If not then it's an average snow storm....So disappointing as it is so close to kaboom yet so far.... Nothing is going to be average about the temperatures though. Something not to be overlooked |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Feb 12, 2021 20:20:09 GMT -6
What does the NAM show. Hopefully a kaboom
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 20:29:48 GMT -6
NAM looks really good with the Sunday night batch. Might drop several inches from that alone
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 12, 2021 20:30:01 GMT -6
On no, the 00z NAM has that stupid void look to it with an area of hardly any snow from Springfield,Mo to maybe Bowling green,Mo
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 20:31:59 GMT -6
The nam is going to miss us with the second part
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Post by ams3389 on Feb 12, 2021 20:32:07 GMT -6
I think and hope all should be happy with this storm. 4-6 is my hope in Affton area. Just amazing how all storms in past this winter shift north, north, and more north to leave us dry or out of big snows. Here we are and now the big snow is too far south and won’t tick north for us to be in the bullseye. Should be fun to watch unfold.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 12, 2021 20:32:12 GMT -6
BUT, It also has what looks like an area of heavier snow almost right up I-44 into STL by hr 57
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 20:34:02 GMT -6
3 to 5 alone sumday night. Ill take it monday is just a bonus if it comes far enough north.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 12, 2021 20:37:22 GMT -6
Its crazy to see all these other areas with Watches/Warnings and not in Southwestern Mo or us yet.  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 20:37:55 GMT -6
The name is not good being so far South with the ejecting energy organizing late.
With more confluence over the lakes.
Part one is highly suspect to bust
Ugh
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 20:38:04 GMT -6
The nam is going to miss us with the second part Looks like were going to squeak it in. Close call though |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 20:40:23 GMT -6
Im not worried. We have had snow on the ground a week what do you all want. Take 3 to 5 sunday night and be happy yall.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2021 20:40:53 GMT -6
Yes definitely not good for round 2 , round one looks decent
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 20:41:50 GMT -6
And even stull 1 to 3 with round 2 in the metro. Many runs to go still its coming on shore now. 6z and 12 z will be most significant
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 12, 2021 20:42:21 GMT -6
Nam still shows 8.3 inches at the airport..... but yes farther west it is not as good
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2021 20:43:28 GMT -6
Southern areas get clipped by round 2 doesn’t make it up to the metro , it looks like some of the other models leaving out the second round
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 20:44:04 GMT -6
Heres the NAM positive snow depth change map. Round 1 alone Sunday night drops warning levels of snow up 44  |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 20:44:26 GMT -6
Nam definately gets it into the metro still. Look at hour 78
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 20:45:04 GMT -6
Im not worried. We have had snow on the ground a week what do you all want. Take 3 to 5 sunday night and be happy yall. Except round one is highly suspect to end up much weaker. Round one on the nam comes from a wide spread sloppy vorticity advection as the trough enters the far Southern plains. It's likely that will end up much weaker than the nam shows. We want a sharp at least neutrally tilted trough with a power House piece of vorticity riding the right front quadrant. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 20:46:32 GMT -6
In the end it's going to do what its going to do. We have had some snow lets enjoy what we do or do not get.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 20:47:41 GMT -6
jeez, reading frivs is like taking uppers then downers, repeat. lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 20:49:22 GMT -6
hires nam is great sunday night
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 12, 2021 20:49:51 GMT -6
Has Dave Murray put any numbers out on the storm yet?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 20:50:58 GMT -6
When was the last time we saw widespread 4-6" of snow covering the entire state of Missouri from a system that dives into far Southern Texas?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 20:51:00 GMT -6
The 00z run of the LSX favorite NBM dropped 4" in the metro. It was pretty light with totals everywhere though. I have no idea what ratios it's using either. The QPF field on Pivotal is still broken
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 20:51:23 GMT -6
No kidding lol snow its one model run. In the end we have had some snow and likely will get some more. I am oficially at the point we just need to look out the window and enjoy what we get. Life is too short. Has a sad case at the hospital from an accident in icy roads this week. I honestly think we need to just enjoy the good things in life.
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Post by TK on Feb 12, 2021 20:56:10 GMT -6
Im not worried. We have had snow on the ground a week what do you all want. Take 3 to 5 sunday night and be happy yall. Except round one is highly suspect to end up much weaker. Round one on the nam comes from a wide spread sloppy vorticity advection as the trough enters the far Southern plains. It's likely that will end up much weaker than the nam shows. We want a sharp at least neutrally tilted trough with a power House piece of vorticity riding the right front quadrant. How does the 500mb wave look Friv? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 20:57:05 GMT -6
NAM has us in a good spot Sunday night for some upper level support. Likely explains the upped round one totals  |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Feb 12, 2021 20:58:16 GMT -6
Snowman what does hires NAM show?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 20:59:42 GMT -6
Except round one is highly suspect to end up much weaker. Round one on the nam comes from a wide spread sloppy vorticity advection as the trough enters the far Southern plains. It's likely that will end up much weaker than the nam shows. We want a sharp at least neutrally tilted trough with a power House piece of vorticity riding the right front quadrant. How does the 500mb wave look Friv? On the 00Z it's way to far SE. The nam has strong jet support and tries to bring snow from the second round into the metro but honestly that probably won't happen with the track of the vorticity. And the first Wade is in unorganized large area of positive vorticity advection. This can bring moderate snow to the area. It's just not a situation that we really ever cash in on here. We want something more consolidated with round one and two. We need round two much further NW. I just don't like how unorganized things are with this. It screams massive bust |
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