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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 21:03:16 GMT -6
NAM has us in a good spot Sunday night for some upper level support. Likely explains the upped round one totals  Which is nice but it's the most unreliable way to produce what we want. All I can think of to say is when was the last time we cashed in on a setup like this? I can't think of any of time we have ever gotten a high end advisory snow like this. And if the nam is South well... I've said my peace... Hopefully the other models trend the other way |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 21:05:19 GMT -6
Snowman what does hires NAM show? It brings 3-4" of snow up 44 into the metro |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 21:09:08 GMT -6
Everyday i look at the radar and FREAKING DES MOINES IOWA ALWAYS HAS WIDESPREAD SNOW.
WTF
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Feb 12, 2021 21:12:47 GMT -6
What does the 00z ICON show or has it not ran yet.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 12, 2021 21:13:38 GMT -6
I seen the radar start to blow up around Vichy earlier. I had 'high hopes'. Radar is falling apart now. What caused that micro scale ascent down there??? Temp down to 11* 7 miles west of De Soto.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 21:14:34 GMT -6
I think we may get a light coating in the a.m. light echos by kc.
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Post by birddog on Feb 12, 2021 21:25:17 GMT -6
Everyday i look at the radar and FREAKING DES MOINES IOWA ALWAYS HAS WIDESPREAD SNOW. WTF Have a friend that lives near Waterloo IA, he told me this evening they have about 30" on the ground. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 12, 2021 21:37:48 GMT -6
Everyday i look at the radar and FREAKING DES MOINES IOWA ALWAYS HAS WIDESPREAD SNOW. WTF Have a friend that lives near Waterloo IA, he told me this evening they have about 30" on the ground. I’m pretty sure I have not had 30 inches In the last 4 years LOL |
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Post by TK on Feb 12, 2021 21:38:25 GMT -6
How does the 500mb wave look Friv? On the 00Z it's way to far SE. The nam has strong jet support and tries to bring snow from the second round into the metro but honestly that probably won't happen with the track of the vorticity. And the first Wade is in unorganized large area of positive vorticity advection. This can bring moderate snow to the area. It's just not a situation that we really ever cash in on here. We want something more consolidated with round one and two. We need round two much further NW. I just don't like how unorganized things are with this. It screams massive bust CRAP |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 21:43:45 GMT -6
All i know is it needs to be warm again. My house cant keep up furnace runs non stop and its 58 tonight inside. North winds just freeze this old house. Im already at 7 degrees out.
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Post by dmbstl on Feb 12, 2021 21:47:37 GMT -6
Its crazy to see all these other areas with Watches/Warnings and not in Southwestern Mo or us yet.  Because they know how things work around here and that we'll get little, if anything. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 21:49:39 GMT -6
00z RGEM Round 2 is pretty much non-existent in the Midwest with it  |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2021 21:51:17 GMT -6
Looks like we ride or die with wave one and hope for a 3-6” quick thump
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 21:53:12 GMT -6
Gfs much drier
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 21:53:12 GMT -6
What does the 00z ICON show or has it not ran yet. 4-6" South of 44/64. 2-3" North of 70. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 21:53:55 GMT -6
Gfs 2 to 3
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 21:55:16 GMT -6
If you're using 10:1 ratios sure
Ratios will likely be higher, in the range of 15:1
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2021 21:56:39 GMT -6
GFS is 3-4” for metro area
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 12, 2021 21:57:10 GMT -6
I’m gonna be 100 percent honest here I’m not liking the trend tonight.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 12, 2021 21:57:26 GMT -6
Kinda of hoping it all misses and we warmup quick like the GFS is showing. One for the kick in the pants, and two I'm ready for Spring.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 21:58:38 GMT -6
GFSv16 is going to be a crush job
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 12, 2021 21:59:31 GMT -6
Damn you Lucy!!!!
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 21:59:50 GMT -6
How reliable is the gfsv16. It as 10 to 12 inches
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 22:01:29 GMT -6
The regular GFS sucks.
It has essentially nothing on round one.
And barely clips us round 2.
That is exactly why the nam is likely way overdone.
Its clear the current lead wave is messing things up and this system isn't going to produce the 6"+ event.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2021 22:02:17 GMT -6
Gfs16 is own it’s own , no other model even looks close, it’s showing 8-10”.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 22:03:51 GMT -6
Smoke show  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 12, 2021 22:04:45 GMT -6
If GFSv16 verifies it would be quite an upset in the model world with all other against it. Also speaking of Spring/Summer/Warmth the model means are kicking the ridge off the west coast into the Pacific allowing the trough to leave us and southeast ridging to take us into March starting mid next week.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 22:06:58 GMT -6
The v16 hasn't been a lone wolf. Its been in general agreement with the Ukie and Euro for awhile now.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 12, 2021 22:09:11 GMT -6
reg GFS might be lining up to nail us Thursday though... Always a week away. -_-
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 12, 2021 22:11:10 GMT -6
Look at this way...baring some surprise decision v16 is going live in the next month or two. A big flop on a storm in the northeast might get the decision maker's attention, but I seriously doubt they are going to care if it flops on a storm in the middle of the country. So we might as get used to it. But as always never throw your lot in with only one model.
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