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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 22:11:51 GMT -6
The GFS only has 0.22" of qpf. The para gfs has about 0.50". Check out why they are different. You can see the para gfs has a much more defined vorticity love. The trough over Arkansas in the images is much sharper on the paragfs. Hopefully the para is right because it drops 0.30"+ qpf in Belleville from round two   |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 12, 2021 22:15:26 GMT -6
Cobb method from the 0Z NAM is back to the 15:1 ratio. The 11:1 ratio on the previous cycle was probably a fluke. That's not really anything new since we were already expecting 15:1.
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Post by TK on Feb 12, 2021 22:15:40 GMT -6
Smoke show  Throw this one out - Will not even come close...lol....unrealistic |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 22:16:04 GMT -6
Look at this way...baring some surprise decision v16 is going live in the next month or two. A big flop on a storm in the northeast might get the decision maker's attention, but I seriously doubt they are going to care if it flops on a storm in the middle of the country. So we might as get used to it. But as always never throw your lot in with only one model. I remember reading an article after the Nor Easter that dropped like 3' in Binghamton of how the v16 did a much better job simulating the heavy snow band in NY than the old GFS. Maybe it can outperform the old GFS again here. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2021 22:16:44 GMT -6
Lol, Thursday system looks great on the regular gfs and unbelievably good on the gfsV16.
Literally unbelievable
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2021 22:19:03 GMT -6
I still like the Wednesday night and Thursday storm, way better opportunity for us , no crushing 1048 hp on top of us but enough cold for snow . I still think we will see accumulating snow on Sunday night, very well could be over by Monday morning if round two doesn’t verify. Even if we received 3-4” of powder that would be plenty to plow and salt till the mid week storm. If we get less than 3” I would definitely be disappointed
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 22:21:23 GMT -6
Lol, Thursday system looks great on the regular gfs and unbelievably good on the gfsV16. Literally unbelievable The jet support the v16 has is still amazing. The old GFS is agreeing with it now |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2021 22:21:36 GMT -6
That second storm has the potential to be a 6-12” storm somewhere in our region, much better setup than the first storm that gets pushed out to sea before it can start to lift north east
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 22:22:13 GMT -6
I still like the Wednesday night and Thursday storm, way better opportunity for us , no crushing 1048 hp on top of us but enough cold for snow . I still think we will see accumulating snow on Sunday night, very well could be over by Monday morning if round two doesn’t verify. Even if we received 3-4” of powder that would be plenty to plow and salt till the mid week storm. If we get less than 3” I would definitely be disappointed The models are showing a much sharper trough next week with much stronger vorticity |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 22:24:13 GMT -6
Gem 4 to 6. Lock it in
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 22:24:58 GMT -6
Night yall! Stay warm and bring your pets indoors
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 22:26:35 GMT -6
Ggem and rgem both have essentially round one.
The rgem 6-8". Ggem 5-6".
Even so I don't like the way this evolves.
I guess it's time to accept an advisory level event.
Hopefully it's at least 4"+.
Anything under 3" will be very disappointing
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2021 22:27:01 GMT -6
Gem 5-6” on kutera charts I would love that
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 12, 2021 22:39:29 GMT -6
I feel like some are expecting a Palm Sunday or Jan 2014 storm here. That’s not what this will be. It’s going to snow, not heavily, but add up at a decent clip because of the extreme cold. Wed/Thursday could be different but Sunday Monday was never going to be a sure bet WSW snow. I think 3-5 or 4-6” is a perfect bet right now for that. And that on top of an inch to two we already have down PLUS another potential storm 2 days later is pretty solid!
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Post by jeepers on Feb 12, 2021 22:41:10 GMT -6
Blues finally win, it’s a good omen.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Feb 12, 2021 22:45:23 GMT -6
We'll find out how reliable all these models that we have been looking at. I'm happy to have the low numbers. NWS just came out 3-5 inches by the end of Storm. If there was a high ceiling and it busted we would never hear the end of it. Plus so much time before the first flakes fly. Plenty of time to adjust.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 12, 2021 22:45:34 GMT -6
FWIW, RAP looks solid through 51 hours. 😄
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 22:48:19 GMT -6
GEFS holding steady with a nudge over 0.30 QPF in the metro.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 12, 2021 22:53:38 GMT -6
What’s the old saying? Better to be wrong just once than every twelve hours.
Could you imagine if NWS hoisted a WSW 48 hours out? How many times have we sat under a WSW and not had it pan out? Personally, 2-6 hours before the event is good.
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 12, 2021 23:00:04 GMT -6
So as it stands right now. Basically the St. Louis Area at this point may just get an inch or two more than the last couple of systems. The big snowfall will be to the south . About sums it up?
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Feb 12, 2021 23:03:17 GMT -6
On my way home from Washington to Fletcher. 47 in Washington/Franklin county had a fresh dusting of snow on the road. Must have been a nice little burst of light snow. Was gone only a couple of hours.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 12, 2021 23:12:15 GMT -6
Ukie is drier and further SE as well. Egh.
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 12, 2021 23:15:03 GMT -6
Ukie is drier and further SE as well. Egh. So basically we’re on schedule. |
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Post by bear1 on Feb 12, 2021 23:17:43 GMT -6
I had a nice little snow shower here in Bourbon, Mo. around 8:30 this eve.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 12, 2021 23:18:29 GMT -6
What’s the old saying? Better to be wrong just once than every twelve hours. Could you imagine if NWS hoisted a WSW 48 hours out? How many times have we sat under a WSW and not had it pan out? Personally, 2-6 hours before the event is good. Human lives are more important than weather forecasting accuracy at the end of the day. How many times has STL experienced a snowstorm where temps stay around 0* to 5* w/ 15-25 mph NNE to NNW winds creating dangerous WCs as low as -15 to -20*? Regardless if we only get say 2-3" which is very likely right now, blowing snow on roads, reduced visibilties will be a problem with this storm. If we lived in Des Moines, IA, I could see where it would be okay to issue a WSW 2-6 hrs before, but not the STL snow hole haha. Most of the St. Louisians aren't used to this anomalous storm. It's better to allow for the public to be prepared for the worse with a bigger lead time than the reverse and waiting around so the NWS can create a more accurate forecast by 1-3" say. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 12, 2021 23:28:43 GMT -6
Flurries here in Belleville. Radar lighting up with lots of low level flurries and light snow showers. NAM 12KM did hint on this as well as some of the meso models for flurries/snow showers tonight with perhaps a dusting possible.
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Post by dmbstl on Feb 12, 2021 23:32:39 GMT -6
So as it stands right now. Basically the St. Louis Area at this point may just get an inch or two more than the last couple of systems. The big snowfall will be to the south . About sums it up? Yup. The storm will go south/around us, the dry air will kill it and we won't get much. |
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 12, 2021 23:37:42 GMT -6
Ukie is drier and further SE as well. Egh. I think you're in a good spot. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 23:40:08 GMT -6
Winter storm severity index for Monday  |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 12, 2021 23:41:58 GMT -6
Ukmet is still 3-4” for the metro definitely a little drier than the last run but it was one of the more amped up ones
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