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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 23:46:53 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 12, 2021 23:55:11 GMT -6
It was my Anniversary today. So I havent had time to check in as often or look at the models very much. Basically what I've skimmed thru and read is....
The higher crazy out of this world snow totals are and were always over done with the models on this first storm. And the low end pathetic snowfall totals are what we might get? I'm saying "might" get the low end snowfall but even that is questionable?? Lol
Glad I didn't get too invested today in the typical roller coaster ride.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 0:15:44 GMT -6
Euro. Pretty similar to the NAM with how the system evolves  |
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Post by RyanD on Feb 13, 2021 0:17:26 GMT -6
EURO looks good still for Monday though it's a bit SE with wave #2. I don't subscribe to Pivotal Pro so not sure what Kuchera ratios show but 10:1 shows 5" in Waterloo. That should translate to 7-8" if not a bit more given the high ratios.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 13, 2021 0:19:30 GMT -6
LOL, now I know how Snowman feels 920  Looks like Kuchera shows close to what I had guessed for my neck of the woods, maybe 8-9" here. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 0:47:51 GMT -6
We really need the second round to come further West or I think we will be looking at 2-4".
The Nam and Euro having the same out put is a very good sign tho
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 0:59:36 GMT -6
Look at the Iowa radar...  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 1:15:13 GMT -6
EPS mean QPF in the metro looks the same as the GEFS, a little over 0.3"
0.3" with 15:1 ratios gets you 4-5"
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Post by weatherj on Feb 13, 2021 1:28:40 GMT -6
How does the Wednesday storm look overall? I know one storm at a time and we probably need to get Monday's event out of the way for the clearest picture. Are there any solutions that still support a significant system?
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Post by weatherj on Feb 13, 2021 1:41:48 GMT -6
Light snow falling here.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 13, 2021 1:43:01 GMT -6
How does the Wednesday storm look overall? I know one storm at a time and we probably need to get Monday's event out of the way for the clearest picture. Are there any solutions that still support a significant system? From what I saw the Wed-Thurs storm still is very much alive. Looked great on both GFS's and the GEM. Looks like the Euro and Ukie both have it too though I think they are more SE with the core moisture. |
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Post by weatherj on Feb 13, 2021 1:45:48 GMT -6
How does the Wednesday storm look overall? I know one storm at a time and we probably need to get Monday's event out of the way for the clearest picture. Are there any solutions that still support a significant system? From what I saw the Wed-Thurs storm still is very much alive. Looked great on both GFS's and the GEM. Looks like the Euro and Ukie both have it too though I think they are more SE with the core moisture. Thanks |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 13, 2021 2:05:22 GMT -6
I still like a solid 6 in the metro
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 13, 2021 2:11:23 GMT -6
I just want more then what I've had from these small disturbances this past week. But I feel like it's just going to be 1-2 inches in Troy. I would of really like a good 6-10 inch storm up here. Maybe if I can manage to get 3 Sunday-Monday then another 2-3 Wed-Thurs then it will be ok. I wanted a lot more though. Guess we will see. 😉
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 13, 2021 2:30:26 GMT -6
Ummm what is up with 06z NAM?? Now has the heavier snowfield north and west of STL?  Its on something. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 13, 2021 2:32:30 GMT -6
This is only the first wave of the Storm for Sunday-Monday. Hope it brings the second wave further north too!
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Post by weatherj on Feb 13, 2021 2:34:29 GMT -6
Ummm what is up with 06z NAM?? Now has the heavier snowfield north and west of STL? Its on something. Hopefully the start of an overall northwest shift of the storm structure and more sharpness. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 13, 2021 2:34:33 GMT -6
Nope looks like the second wave is still south ...
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 13, 2021 2:48:20 GMT -6
Flurries in Troy,Mo
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 13, 2021 2:51:24 GMT -6
Yep 06z Nam basically is saying wave 1 North and west and Wave 2 south
Drum roll.........leaving STL metro with less snow between the 2 waves. 🤦♂️
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 13, 2021 2:53:37 GMT -6
Still has 2-5 inches of snow though for most of us.
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Post by weatherj on Feb 13, 2021 3:07:13 GMT -6
I find it hard to believe wave 1 would set up that far NW.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 13, 2021 3:13:12 GMT -6
More then a flurry but not a real snow shower as visibility hasn’t really dropped at all. Been doing this for 45 minutes already and hardly a dusting on the patio table. 4°
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 4:16:23 GMT -6
The paragfs is perfect.
The regular gfs straight sucks
The nam is inconsistent.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 4:17:15 GMT -6
Yep 06z Nam basically is saying wave 1 North and west and Wave 2 south Drum roll.........leaving STL metro with less snow between the 2 waves. 🤦♂️ It's very possible we end up stuck in between with 1-3" |
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Post by weatherj on Feb 13, 2021 4:19:29 GMT -6
The paragfs is perfect. The regular gfs straight sucks The nam is inconsistent. Is it the fact that the higher res version can pick up better on the large scale features better? It seems to consistently show much more support for significant accumulations than the regular version. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 13, 2021 4:21:29 GMT -6
Ya old gfs 06z is drier thru Tuesday. Sheesh...🤷♂️
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 4:22:55 GMT -6
The icon keeps trending stronger.
Has 5-8" from 44/64 to the SE and 3-5' NW of that.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 4:23:58 GMT -6
The paragfs is perfect. The regular gfs straight sucks The nam is inconsistent. Is it the fact that the higher res version can pick up better on the large scale features better? It seems to consistently show much more support for significant accumulations than the regular version. In this case its simply how the models handle the energy ejecting. The regular gfs is super messy and flat. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 4:25:21 GMT -6
Radar showing some solid returns over the MO side this morning.
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Looks like Kuchera shows close to what I had guessed for my neck of the woods, maybe 8-9" here.
Its on something. 