|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 9:10:14 GMT -6
It looks like St. Peters area sat along a low level boundary between 900-800mb that is finally collapsing.
But that's just a guess.
Even now it looks like the band of snow is going to die over St Charles county.
Crazy
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Feb 13, 2021 9:10:18 GMT -6
The 9Z SREF mean is a little over 4". If we define duds as < 2.0" and dudes as >= 8.0" then we have 0 duds and 2 dudes.  |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 9:10:54 GMT -6
Nice Friv...surprised to see those kind of totals to the NW. Is that all from the first wave? Yeah. There is no second wave. The second wave is 200 miles SE of us on the 12Z nam |
|
|
|
Post by mchafin on Feb 13, 2021 9:11:20 GMT -6
So...based on the pessimism carried forward from last night, we should expect a disappointment Sunday into Monday? Nothing Monday into Tuesday? And maybe something Wednesday into Thursday? The WAA snowfall from "wave 1" Sun PM/Mon AM still looks decent...probably several inches in the Metro and possibly more SE. But "wave 2" is in question...that has trended further SE which puts the Metro on the edge. The second storm later in the week is still a player, but no reason to put much interest on it until the first system gets out of the way. I was being a little spicy as the waves of model runs are exhausting. And thanks for the analysis. I think the Sunday / Monday system still looks good. I was kinda hoping Monday night into Tuesday would play out, but beggars can’t be choosers! The later in the week storm would be nice. But heck, it’s been a great run thus far. |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 9:14:56 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by snowjunky on Feb 13, 2021 9:18:38 GMT -6
I’ll will take the RGEM for $1000 Alex.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2021 9:18:56 GMT -6
6z euro ensembles don’t look excited about the Thursday system.
As fun as the gfs and gfsv16 are to look at, I would significantly temper any expectations for that particular time period until we get some buy in from the euro.
Also, rgem and nam deserve some love for immediately picking out wave one being dominant for the Sunday/Monday storm
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 9:22:15 GMT -6
6z euro ensembles don’t look excited about the Thursday system. As fun as the gfs and gfsv16 are to look at, I would significantly temper any expectations for that particular time period until we get some buy in from the euro. Also, rgem and nam deserve some love for immediately picking out wave one being dominant for the Sunday/Monday storm I believe the rgem picked up on the no second wave thing starting with yesterday’s 12z run. The Canadian models have been rocking lately. That’s if there is no second wave of course |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 9:23:46 GMT -6
Here was the 925mb temp advection early this morning. Sure doesn't take much with temps this cold  |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2021 9:24:35 GMT -6
Looking at the NAM...despite the upper level features shifting SE over the past several runs, the mid-level flow still backs nicely and brings strong PVA and warm/moist advection across the region Sunday evening. That would be a very nice hit of fluff, and I could see some spots exceeding 6" despite round 2 fizzling out for us.
No reason to be discouraged. I still like 4-6" for the Metro.
|
|
|
|
Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Feb 13, 2021 9:25:07 GMT -6
It's probably a good time to review the proper procedure for measuring snowfall. CoCoRAHS is a well established standard. climate.colostate.edu/pdfs/snowbook.pdfSomething caught my attention though. There has apparently been a change recently. This text used to appear in their old booklet... One of the difficulties with accurate and consistent snowfall measurement is related to the melting, settling, or evaporation of snow before you have a chance to measure it (especially in the Fall and Spring). Please try to do a measurement as close in time to when the storm ends as possible. Don't wait until 7AM if the snow ended the previous day. During long-duration snowfalls, you may choose to measure and clear the snowboard every six hours. The total snowfall would then be the summation of the different measurements....but has been replaced with this text in the new booklet... During long duration events, snowfall may be measured at shorter intervals for the purpose of submitting a Significant Weather Report or reporting to the NWS, but the snowboard should NOT be cleared! The snowboard should be cleared only after your regular 24-hour observation.That’s interesting. I remember clearing my patio table half way during a higher accumulation event after a time so I could keep up with the new snow, but could still measure the total half. |
|
|
|
Post by REB on Feb 13, 2021 9:25:30 GMT -6
I haven't posted any snow totals this year. The snow board is going out in a few minutes. I hope it doesn't jinx anything.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2021 9:27:26 GMT -6
Here was the 925mb temp advection early this morning. Sure doesn't take much with temps this cold Models were showing a weak 950/850mb circulation developing to the south with a weak TROWAL and it looks like that verified. I didn't expect much from it, but it definitely snows easily when temps are near or below zero so it's not really surprising. |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 9:28:24 GMT -6
If there wasn't the current system in Western Texas that's diving SE towards The GOM.
The next system
(The one that is giving us snow tomorrow evening/night)
would be a powerhouse.
Probably have a 100 mile wide band of 12-18".
Too bad!?
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2021 9:29:38 GMT -6
Looking at the watch/warning map stings a bit, I'll admit. I mean almost all of TX, OK, AR, north LA. We haven't had a a watch or warning here at all, northern LA has had 2, OKC has had 4 I think. Unreal.
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 9:30:16 GMT -6
Here was the 925mb temp advection early this morning. Sure doesn't take much with temps this cold Wow that is such a marginal setup. |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 9:30:54 GMT -6
Looking at the watch/warning map stings a bit, I'll admit. I mean almost all of TX, OK, AR, north LA. We haven't had a a watch or warning here at all, northern LA has had 2, OKC has had 4 I think. Unreal. We will be under a winter storm watch or advisory this afternoon |
|
|
|
Post by REB on Feb 13, 2021 9:32:49 GMT -6
It's probably a good time to review the proper procedure for measuring snowfall. CoCoRAHS is a well established standard. climate.colostate.edu/pdfs/snowbook.pdfSomething caught my attention though. There has apparently been a change recently. This text used to appear in their old booklet... One of the difficulties with accurate and consistent snowfall measurement is related to the melting, settling, or evaporation of snow before you have a chance to measure it (especially in the Fall and Spring). Please try to do a measurement as close in time to when the storm ends as possible. Don't wait until 7AM if the snow ended the previous day. During long-duration snowfalls, you may choose to measure and clear the snowboard every six hours. The total snowfall would then be the summation of the different measurements....but has been replaced with this text in the new booklet... During long duration events, snowfall may be measured at shorter intervals for the purpose of submitting a Significant Weather Report or reporting to the NWS, but the snowboard should NOT be cleared! The snowboard should be cleared only after your regular 24-hour observation.ThankTThank you for this. I hadn't looked at the procedure for a couple of years. This is definitely a change. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2021 9:34:21 GMT -6
somewhere between a half inch and .75 of cotton here this morning it looks like. It blows around when you sneeze so hard to tell..but more on the ground now then yesterday for sure.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 9:53:42 GMT -6
The GFSv16 is not giving up on its solution. Maybe this will be its "Sandy" moment
|
|
|
|
Post by pbc12871 on Feb 13, 2021 9:54:54 GMT -6
Still nice big fluffy flakes coming down in Ballwin. I can't believe it's still snowing!
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 9:56:17 GMT -6
The GFSv16 is not giving up on its solution. Maybe this will be its "Sandy" moment It's great. I don't like that it's really dry with wave one. The regular GFS is straight awful barely clips us. It would be great if the ParaGFS could get some support |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 13, 2021 9:56:51 GMT -6
AJD might be close. Someone might be bitter the forecast wasn’t there. No somebody was in Saint Peter's 2 days ago and there wasn't anything close to 2.7 on the ground.Maybe 1.5. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 10:00:50 GMT -6
The GFSv16 is not giving up on its solution. Maybe this will be its "Sandy" moment It's great. I don't like that it's really dry with wave one. The regular GFS is straight awful barely clips us. It would be great if the ParaGFS could get some support Old GFS still looks like 3-5 inches acorss the area |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Feb 13, 2021 10:01:23 GMT -6
Absolutely beautiful out  |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 10:05:52 GMT -6
It's great. I don't like that it's really dry with wave one. The regular GFS is straight awful barely clips us. It would be great if the ParaGFS could get some support Old GFS still looks like 3-5 inches acorss the area Yeah it does on paper but it takes 24 hours for the gfs to add up 0.20" qpf or so. That's normally implies snow totals will be lower than model output. But in this super cold airmass it may not matter |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2021 10:06:03 GMT -6
GFS is amped for mid week..damn near a mix here. Interesting
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2021 10:06:45 GMT -6
Despite the models shifting SE overall, they maintain a broad 850mb circulation to our SE that sets up a weak but persistent TROWAL across the region into Monday. This is very similar to what we're seeing today, but more focused and a bit stronger...with better quality moisture. Combine that with the WAA portion of the system, and you've got plenty of reason to expect and possibly exceed 6". This definitely isn't your typical GYB setup!
|
|
cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197 
|
Post by cowboy on Feb 13, 2021 10:06:52 GMT -6
Did Chris post his map yet ? I’ve gone back and tried
To look closely but did not see it.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 10:07:03 GMT -6
GFS is amped for mid week..damn near a mix here. Interesting The v16 is about to spin up a beast too |
|
