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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2021 10:07:21 GMT -6
that would be great
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2021 10:07:26 GMT -6
GFS is amped for mid week..damn near a mix here. Interesting Unfortunately, it has zero support from the euro or really any of the euro ensembles |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 13, 2021 10:07:42 GMT -6
Feathery flakes still coming down lightly. But the sun is coming out. May need sunglasses inside the house
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2021 10:11:10 GMT -6
The duration of the event may preclude a warning from the NWS...but I think the conditions warrant it. Totals nearing 6" with drifting and deep cold is a significant to major winter storm in this region, IMO.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2021 10:15:28 GMT -6
disco basically said this morning an advisory eveyrwhere. Unless things change I guess..and it was Glass who wrote it.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 10:17:22 GMT -6
12z GEM looks like 4-6 inches
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 10:23:55 GMT -6
Because of the extreme cold and winds.
Combined with 4-7" of snow.
I think a winter storm watch is appropriate.
And if things tomorrow at this time are still on pace for what is outlined above.
Then go full WINTER STORM WARNING
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2021 10:24:22 GMT -6
IIRC, totals for the 2014 storm weren't originally forecast to be 6"+ but there were still warnings hoisted because of the wind and cold factor. Granted, the conditions aren't looking quite as extreme this time...but still highly impactful and dangerous.
I guess that's why I don't make the big bucks...lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 10:28:59 GMT -6
I feel like watches should have gone up yesterday afternoon. Six inches is still a distinct possibility and the extreme cold with the snow is no joke.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2021 10:31:56 GMT -6
I'm pretty sure 6-12 was expected in 2014 when the watches were issued.
Agreed they should be issued this time too.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 10:34:46 GMT -6
GEM is on team GFS with the midweek system
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 13, 2021 10:35:35 GMT -6
Let’s all remember that even if this became a 2-4” system which I think is highly unlikely, it is still an exceedingly rare event given the temps in the single digits DURING the storm.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 13, 2021 10:35:43 GMT -6
Snow is persistent this morning, but it is slowly weakening on the radar. Not shrinking, just weakening.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 10:35:55 GMT -6
The paragfs is all on its own.
So we are going to require round one to produce
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 10:36:38 GMT -6
Let’s all remember that even if this became a 2-4” system which I think is highly unlikely, it is still an exceedingly rare event given the temps in the single digits DURING the storm. If my backyard only gets 2". I will be very disappointed. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 13, 2021 10:36:58 GMT -6
I'm pretty sure 6-12 was expected in 2014 when the watches were issued. Agreed they should be issued this time too. We were in the 8-12” range for a couple days leading up to that one down here. Then there was a last minute pull to the nw. Still did well but there was that last minute shift. |
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beth930
Weather Weenie
Highway K and Mexico-O'Fallon MO
Posts: 34 
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Post by beth930 on Feb 13, 2021 10:37:46 GMT -6
I love these snows that I can clean off my driveway with the leaf blower?😎
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 13, 2021 10:41:59 GMT -6
I forgot to mention that 9Z SREF implied ratios are 15:1.
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Feb 13, 2021 10:42:12 GMT -6
Out here on Mt. Dardenne, it started snowing around 04:45. Not sure why I was up. It could have been the fact that I fell asleep on the couch around 20:00. Anyway, we got pretty close to an inch out of this little surprise. There isn't really anywhere to measure accurately.....The snow is so fluffy that even the slight wind was blowing it all around.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Feb 13, 2021 10:42:19 GMT -6
7.1 earthquake hit Japan bout 1 hour ago...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 10:45:29 GMT -6
This is some amazing consistency on the GEFS with the midweek system. Every member is almost identical. Really need the euro to jump on board  |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 13, 2021 10:48:28 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2021 10:49:50 GMT -6
That is remarkable, 920.
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Post by dschreib on Feb 13, 2021 10:49:54 GMT -6
According to the above, watches are issued when an event is likely to meet or exceed local Winter Storm Warning criteria. We're already under a wind chill advisory. I don't believe winter storm watches are issued for temperatures.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 13, 2021 10:54:13 GMT -6
This separate trackable 500mb vorticity/wave and associated closed 700mb circulation is a bit of a wild card. Showing up in other models too and makes me wonder if we see a zone of enhanced snowfall along that track. Where that winds up it's possible (probable) there may be a relative minimum in snow accumulation between that feature and the the main shortwave and associated 850mb low further southeast.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2021 10:54:35 GMT -6
12z ukmet is all wave one.
Good for a general 3-6 inches
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Feb 13, 2021 10:58:35 GMT -6
 Love the look of this snow, can actually see individual flakes. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2021 11:00:05 GMT -6
12z ukmet is way suppressed with the Thursday system.
Annoying to be toyed with by the gfs
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 11:02:16 GMT -6
12z ukmet is way suppressed with the Thursday system. Annoying to be toyed with by the gfs Looks like it would still drop a couple inches here but ya nothing like the GFS monster. |
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Post by mchafin on Feb 13, 2021 11:05:58 GMT -6
Just curious as to why the UKMET’s solution holds more weight than the GFSes
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