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Post by dschreib on Feb 13, 2021 11:06:08 GMT -6
O, Canada FTW.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 11:09:48 GMT -6
Just curious as to why the UKMET’s solution holds more weight than the GFSes It’s generally considered that the Euro and Ukmet are the “top tier” models followed by the GFS and Canadian. Doesn’t mean the GFS camp isn’t correct with the midweek system, it just helps to have support from the top guns. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 13, 2021 11:11:10 GMT -6
Haven’t went out and measured yet but it sure looks like there’s a healthy new inch of snow outside. Nice to wake up to a bit of an over performing surprise.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Feb 13, 2021 11:15:54 GMT -6
Did Chris post his map yet ? I’ve gone back and tried To look closely but did not see it. It is on his Facebook page. |
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197 
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Post by cowboy on Feb 13, 2021 11:17:18 GMT -6
Did Chris post his map yet ? I’ve gone back and tried To look closely but did not see it. It is on his Facebook page. Thank you |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2021 11:29:16 GMT -6
Just curious as to why the UKMET’s solution holds more weight than the GFSes Verification scores are consistently higher for the euro and ukmet compared to the gfs. The gap is material |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 13, 2021 11:34:47 GMT -6
Snow today almost looks like 'stage' snow, that fake looking snow that looks like semi translucent plastic confetti, yet it's real snow.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 13, 2021 11:37:53 GMT -6
Also don't look now, but the models are starting to show the next 'Arctic Attack' starting March 1st. It won't be as intense as the current obviously, but would probably yield another 1-2 weeks of cold and perhaps a shot or 2 of accumulating snow if the cards line up right. That would take us to Mid March in which if the pattern continues as is, should set us up for storm chances including severe storms towards the end of March into April.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 13, 2021 11:54:46 GMT -6
First...
Appologies to addj.. I jumped to quickly on him and I was wrong to do so. It appears based on recent reports amounts of around 1 are being reported... so you are in line. It has been a rough couple of days here and I snapped a bit. Please accept my humble appologies.
Also... never had time to post my maps yesterday... but from what I had time to look at this AM... 3 to 6 is still a good cover for most of the area... down southeast... 6 to 8 looks better than 6 to 10.
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sullivanjohn
Wishcaster
Sullivan, MO
Posts: 141
Snowfall Events: Code Monkey
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Post by sullivanjohn on Feb 13, 2021 12:01:33 GMT -6
First... Appologies to addj.. I jumped to quickly on him and I was wrong to do so. It appears based on recent reports amounts of around 1 are being reported... so you are in line. It has been a rough couple of days here and I snapped a bit. Please accept my humble appologies. Also... never had time to post my maps yesterday... but from what I had time to look at this AM... 3 to 6 is still a good cover for most of the area... down southeast... 6 to 8 looks better than 6 to 10. You're a good man Chris Higgins! 💪 |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 13, 2021 12:07:03 GMT -6
I’m scheduled to travel this Thursday to Hopkinsville KY to pick up my 70 yr old father who’s scheduled to drive from Atlanta, meet me halfway, stay the night and drive him the rest of the way into to STL on Friday.
I’m worried about this 2nd wave and it’s impact on travel Wednesday into Thursday. Can you guys help me out here and let me know how it’s going to look on my drive down Thursday from STL and his drive up from ATL with the way this is currently projected? We’re unsure if we need to reschedule the current plan from Thursday to Friday.
Thoughts from the experts? Would be much appreciated!
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2021 12:10:03 GMT -6
I’m scheduled to travel this Thursday to Hopkinsville KY to pick up my 70 yr old father who’s scheduled to drive from Atlanta, meet me halfway, stay the night and drive him the rest of the way into to STL on Friday. I’m worried about this 2nd wave and it’s impact on travel Wednesday into Thursday. Can you guys help me out here and let me know how it’s going to look on my drive down Thursday from STL and his drive up from ATL with the way this is currently projected? We’re unsure if we need to reschedule the current plan from Thursday to Friday. Thoughts from the experts? Would be much appreciated! He should definitely delay at least until Friday, if not later. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 12:11:39 GMT -6
Euro is a little drier than last nights run across the metro since it keeps the second wave to the SE. Still fits the going forecast well  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 13, 2021 12:15:36 GMT -6
Just curious as to why the UKMET’s solution holds more weight than the GFSes Whichever model produces the lesser amounts hold the most weight because this is St. Louis! |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 13, 2021 12:16:32 GMT -6
Euro is a little drier than last nights run across the metro since it keeps the second wave to the SE. Still fits the going forecast well What does it show kuchera ratio at? Start and finish? |
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Post by WeatherLes on Feb 13, 2021 12:16:42 GMT -6
Hello all. I’m not much on making predictions but here in Jefferson County, I do believe we will be in the 6-8 range for sure. I believe we will go under a watch after 4 today. I follow everyone of you all and read everything you all post. You all seem to have a ton of knowledge when it comes to the weather. As for all of your forecast it’s just a guessing game until the storm is done, but I guess that’s what makes it exciting for everyone is to see who is right. I Love all kinds of weather and have ever since I saw My first weather cast. I applaud you all for trying to do your best to nail this one down and move onto the next. Let’s hope for great results with lots of snow on snow. Take care everyone and be safe out there.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 13, 2021 12:19:31 GMT -6
I’m scheduled to travel this Thursday to Hopkinsville KY to pick up my 70 yr old father who’s scheduled to drive from Atlanta, meet me halfway, stay the night and drive him the rest of the way into to STL on Friday. I’m worried about this 2nd wave and it’s impact on travel Wednesday into Thursday. Can you guys help me out here and let me know how it’s going to look on my drive down Thursday from STL and his drive up from ATL with the way this is currently projected? We’re unsure if we need to reschedule the current plan from Thursday to Friday. Thoughts from the experts? Would be much appreciated! He should definitely delay at least until Friday, if not later. Ok thank you. When would be your estimate as far as time range of biggest impact for those parts of KY/TN on Thursday? Would it potentially bleed into Friday? My biggest worry is my fathers trip up then my trip down. Appreciate your feedback. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 12:20:45 GMT -6
Euro is a little drier than last nights run across the metro since it keeps the second wave to the SE. Still fits the going forecast well What does it show kuchera ratio at? Start and finish? Total QPF in STL is 0.23 so looks like it's going with SLR of 18-19:1 |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Feb 13, 2021 12:25:13 GMT -6
What does EURO show for mid week system?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2021 12:26:02 GMT -6
It just won't quit!
You have to think snow production will be very efficient tomorrow into Monday when deeper lift and moisture advection gets going in this airmass. Dry air honestly seems like almost a non-issue with it being so cold...it has a much greater impact with borderline temps.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 12:26:06 GMT -6
LSR this morning were 40:1 according to STL NWS
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2021 12:27:01 GMT -6
What does EURO show for mid week system? Suppression |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Feb 13, 2021 12:28:12 GMT -6
Do we think the mid week system has a chance to big the big snow we have been looking for?
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2021 12:28:30 GMT -6
euro is still se midweek. It has like 1 six hour period of snow here the next 5 days, whils parts of TX, AR, se MO and others get wave after wave. Infuriating.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 13, 2021 12:28:40 GMT -6
Lord if we have 40 to one tomorrow which we likely wont .20 would make 8 inches lol
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Post by birddog on Feb 13, 2021 12:34:25 GMT -6
It just won't quit! You have to think snow production will be very efficient tomorrow into Monday when deeper lift and moisture advection gets going in this airmass. Dry air honestly seems like almost a non-issue with it being so cold...it has a much greater impact with borderline temps. Kind of reminds me of mountain snow. Just keeps producing snow, seemingly from nothing. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2021 12:39:08 GMT -6
why would ratios be so much lower tomorrow night than they were today?
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 13, 2021 12:39:15 GMT -6
LSR this morning were 40:1 according to STL NWS 40 to 1, omg. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 12:48:22 GMT -6
why would ratios be so much lower tomorrow night than they were today? They probably wont be. The only bad part is this snow will melt like a fart in the wind. But it's going to look pretty while it's here. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 12:48:25 GMT -6
why would ratios be so much lower tomorrow night than they were today? It does make you wonder if we won't be able to pull off higher ratios tomorrow. Cobb from the 12z NAM and GFS suggest SLRs of 12-15:1 tomorrow which seems criminally low |
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