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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2021 15:38:39 GMT -6
Friv, I could easily see it being 25-1 tomorrow night , I think all the talk yesterday about 15-1 is out the window after today’s little event.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 13, 2021 15:38:44 GMT -6
Only a 50% percent chance of snow now Monday? Really ?
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Post by mchafin on Feb 13, 2021 15:45:29 GMT -6
Forecast discussion hasn’t been updated so I can’t read it while playing that Whomp Whomp sound in the background
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 13, 2021 15:46:36 GMT -6
Some of my Wetaher Apps on my phone.only shows %40 chance with 2-4 in possible.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 13, 2021 15:49:04 GMT -6
Gfs is now 1 to 2 inches. That high pressure is stronger each run
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 13, 2021 15:57:43 GMT -6
Ya it seems like 18z NAM, GFS and HRRR only have 1-4 inches thru Tuesday for our area. Higher totals seem to be in the extreme Southern Mo up thru southern Illinois and Indiana.
Edit: going by the 10:1 ratio tab of course.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2021 15:58:42 GMT -6
Gfs is now 1 to 2 inches. That high pressure is stronger each run This is completely wrong. It shows 0.2-0.3 QPF across the metro. That’s an easy 2-5 inches. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 15:59:35 GMT -6
Just noticed the models are actually phasing what's left of the system currently over Southern Texas with the ejecting trough.
This really helps us out.
The rgem has more left of that system as it pulls it into the fold and breaks out a pretty solid area of precip as it gets pulled almost due north and meets with energy from the system to our West.
The nam is a little less organised.
Also even with the kuchera output the rgem and nam are like 15-1.
That will probably be to low.
We will probably end up 20/25-1.
Which would turn 0.30" into 6-7".
Also the new GFS really hell bent on wave 2 hitting us.
The nam does as well but isn't as strong with it up free here.
The rgem grazes us with it.
The only chance we have for the 6"+ is if the first wave is like the rgem or second wave is like the new GFS.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 16:01:48 GMT -6
Gfs is now 1 to 2 inches. That high pressure is stronger each run This is completely wrong. It shows 0.2-0.3 QPF across the metro. That’s an easy 2-5 inches. Old GFS has a positive snow depth change of 4” in the metro GFSv16 still showing its high end solution of 7-8” in the metro |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 13, 2021 16:04:33 GMT -6
Now the 18z GFS shows 1"+ QPF down near OK City. Frustration trumps disappointment from this keyboard anyway.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 16:08:20 GMT -6
Friv, I could easily see it being 25-1 tomorrow night , I think all the talk yesterday about 15-1 is out the window after today’s little event. It could be for sure. |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 13, 2021 16:11:30 GMT -6
QPF Roundup - rounded to nearest 0.05".
18Z GFSv15 - 0.20"
18Z GFSv16 - 0.45"
18Z NAM - 0.30"
15Z SREF - 0.35"
12Z ECMWF - 0.20"
12Z UKMET - 0.30"
12Z GEFS - 0.25"
12Z EPS - 0.30"
12Z GEPS - 0.30"
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 13, 2021 16:30:17 GMT -6
QPF Roundup - rounded to nearest 0.05". 18Z GFSv15 - 0.20"
18Z GFSv16 - 0.45"
18Z NAM - 0.30"
15Z SREF - 0.35"
12Z ECMWF - 0.20"
12Z UKMET - 0.30"
12Z GEFS - 0.25"
12Z EPS - 0.30"
12Z GEPS - 0.30"
So we have an average of all models at .295 - Factor in a reasonable 20:1 ratio and we get 5.90”. I’ll take it!! |
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Post by scmhack on Feb 13, 2021 16:38:20 GMT -6
am i crazy or based off wind direction could we get snow feeds off the mississippi and illinois rivers tonight or when does the wind shift?
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Feb 13, 2021 16:41:59 GMT -6
What do 18z show for Wednesday system?
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 13, 2021 16:49:07 GMT -6
What do 18z show for Wednesday system? 5”+ GFS 10”+ GFSv16 |
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Post by mchafin on Feb 13, 2021 16:49:42 GMT -6
What do 18z show for Wednesday system? The GFSes are still excited about it |
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Post by RyanD on Feb 13, 2021 16:49:49 GMT -6
This place is just unreal at times. Some people are never happy. It is as if some of us were expecting an '82 redux. Anyway, I think 4-6" is reasonable for my neck of the woods and the midweek system is still very much in play. I would not at all be surprised to see some places with a double digit snowpack by next Friday. The potential for a lot more is still there too. I feel the v16 could be on to something too for next week (both storms). Its consistency can't be denied and it has some support from the old GFS and the GEM.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Feb 13, 2021 16:56:10 GMT -6
Thanks sounds like still a chance on Wednesday
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 16:57:21 GMT -6
21z RAP has 0.36 QPF in the metro
It’s showing 6-7” using Kuchera
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2021 17:15:08 GMT -6
This thing looks pretty healthy on water vapor with a lot of easterly movement still...have to wonder if models are weakening this thing too quickly as it ejects out. We've seen several systems where models showed a similar outcome and ended up having a more defined shortwave/mid-level low. But, the confluence is strong as well...so there's that. And the digging energy wants to split the trof. So it's a struggle. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out...I'm still going with 4-6" with more possible favoring the SE. Some models are showing potential for Fgen banding on the tail end which could drop a couple inches...this seems to want to set up across the N half or so. So thinking everybody gets a decent snow from this. If we could get the mid-level flow to back just a bit more, we could see some nice totals from this. If it doesn't...we might only get a few inches. But when you consider two snow events within 24-36hrs with temps in the single digits near zero and brutal wind chills...this is a very very unusual event for this region and should be respected. This is high latitude weather in St. Louis courtesy of major stratospheric warming(s).
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2021 17:16:35 GMT -6
What is the GEFS been showing for QPF for Wednesday night into Thursday
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 13, 2021 17:17:08 GMT -6
Im almost wondering if we will get colder than 5 below tonight. Skies are clear with snow pack. This is a question not a statement?
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 13, 2021 17:18:09 GMT -6
Funny how if we started last week looking at this storm as producing .2 - .3 qpf we would all still be happy that a 3 to 5” storm was on the way.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2021 17:31:24 GMT -6
Im almost wondering if we will get colder than 5 below tonight. Skies are clear with snow pack. This is a question not a statement? Down to 5* here after a high of 8*. The wind will mix the lower levels and keep temps from free falling...but also advect in colder air. Clouds will be streaming in later tonight ahead of this system too. I'd say -5* sounds about right. Still impressive...but not the -20* that the GFS showed. It still has it's longer range cold bias for sure. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 13, 2021 17:32:30 GMT -6
Yes my hi was 8 as well and currently 6. Thanks for the input
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 17:35:43 GMT -6
The 21Z rap is exactly what I wanted to see A much more consolidated event.  |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 13, 2021 17:38:29 GMT -6
If we get to -5 they may need to consider a windchill warning
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2021 17:39:29 GMT -6
The short range hi-res models have done pretty darn well lately...that's encouraging, Friv.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2021 17:41:19 GMT -6
If we get to -5 they may need to consider a windchill warning We're pretty close to threshold up this way for sure...again, very impressive when combined with the snow. NWS can always upgrade to a warning if need be. |
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