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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2021 17:42:12 GMT -6
Nice look , the rap has done a little better than the HRRR this winter
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 13, 2021 17:42:15 GMT -6
Pardon my ignorance but the 21Z is used for guidance when you are without 24 - 48 hours of the storm? Asking for a friend. 😁
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2021 17:44:10 GMT -6
No it’s the short range high resolution model run extended of the RAP
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 13, 2021 17:45:56 GMT -6
Is 9* here now got up to 16* here.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 13, 2021 17:47:57 GMT -6
RAP supports the GFS16 solution with the negatively tilted, amplified shortwave. That looks very nice.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 17:59:47 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2021 18:00:18 GMT -6
about 97% of Tx is under a winter storm warning. Rare indeed. Also, must be nice lol.
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 13, 2021 18:00:47 GMT -6
No it’s the short range high resolution model run extended of the RAP Thanks. And I meant to type “within 24-48 hours.” |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 13, 2021 18:39:46 GMT -6
It’s not a powerhouse dropping 1.5” qpf concrete snow, but I’ll take it. A pretty remarkable stretch of weather. If further stratospheric warmings are underway/happened, we could see much of the same as we head into late February/March. Teleconnections are forecast to moderate, not head into strongly negative or positive (depending on which one we are looking at) territory which is also good.
No records were threatened, but winter has been so scarce in these parts the last few years I’m happy just to see the combination of cold AND snow.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 13, 2021 18:40:30 GMT -6
about 97% of Tx is under a winter storm warning. Rare indeed. Also, must be nice lol. Yeah, but what's their threshold? I bet down in Houston it is for anything over an inch lol |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Feb 13, 2021 18:56:25 GMT -6
My “phone app” is now saying no accumulation Monday and only a 40% chance of flurries lol
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Feb 13, 2021 19:36:10 GMT -6
My “phone app” is now saying no accumulation Monday and only a 40% chance of flurries lol What is the closest or most accurate weather app haven't found one yet? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 19:54:58 GMT -6
00z HRRR looks like 4-7” across the area
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 13, 2021 19:56:20 GMT -6
Does anyone know off the top of their head any storms in the past across the county that produced a healthy 3-6" in a cold thermal gradient like we have now? I'm sure there have been a decent amount of storms like this somewhere in the country. Since this is so rare, I don't know of any haha.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 13, 2021 19:57:28 GMT -6
00z HRRR looks like 4-7” across the area It looks a little disorganized on that run. Unfortunately you can't see the 500mb flow. The immediate metro looks closer to 4-5" using 20-25 ratios. |
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Post by TK on Feb 13, 2021 20:01:42 GMT -6
Does anyone know off the top of their head any storms in the past across the county that produced a healthy 3-6" in a cold thermal gradient like we have now? I'm sure there have been a decent amount of storms like this somewhere in the country. Since this is so rare, I don't know of any haha. If I remember correctly it was the 6 inch storm 3 days after the famous 82 storm. I remember that is was soooo cold after the 82 storm and then we got the second one right behind it... |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 13, 2021 20:05:44 GMT -6
21Z SREF shows 5" with tight clustering at 3-7". 0 duds and 2 dudes in there.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 20:06:24 GMT -6
By 30 hours the NAM is definitely going to be more organized.
The trough is much sharper, energy much more organized.
Let's see how it translates
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Post by landscaper on Feb 13, 2021 20:07:05 GMT -6
Bdgx has it gone up some or is it about the same , the sref?
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Post by joshofstl on Feb 13, 2021 20:07:48 GMT -6
My “phone app” is now saying no accumulation Monday and only a 40% chance of flurries lol What is the closest or most accurate weather app haven't found one yet? On Android, my favorite is NOAA Weather Unofficial. It draws from the NWS and has a whole suite of cool features, including hour-by-hour forecasts. There's a free and ad-free pro edition; I've been using the pro for years now. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 13, 2021 20:09:01 GMT -6
By 30 hours the NAM is definitely going to be more organized. The trough is much sharper, energy much more organized. Let's see how it translates The 00z NAM looks great. A later start time, overnight Sun for the bulk. Definitely more organized. More potential for 4-6" that run! |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 13, 2021 20:13:56 GMT -6
SREF 21z still looks pretty consistent with itself. Omitting the high (.51") and low (.19") yields total QPF of .32". 5" total snow ending noonish Monday 2/15. Not too shabby. It also shows increases at the end of the run from the start of storm #2 at midnight Wednesday, 2/17.
Temp 7* 7 miles west of De Soto.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2021 20:22:49 GMT -6
nam is so close to us with the 2nd wave...way closer than earlier
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 20:26:21 GMT -6
nam is so close to us with the 2nd wave...way closer than earlier It took a step toward the GFSv16 solution |
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 13, 2021 20:28:07 GMT -6
nam is so close to us with the 2nd wave...way closer than earlier Yeah that looks pretty. SE MO is a great spot right now. |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 13, 2021 20:29:35 GMT -6
nam is so close to us with the 2nd wave...way closer than earlier Just eyeballin' it looks like the SE Ridge is stronger on this run pushing the core snow a little further NW. I actually get a little snow from #2. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2021 20:35:03 GMT -6
00z NAM positive snow depth change  |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 13, 2021 20:35:06 GMT -6
This is how all snow forecasts should be done.  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 13, 2021 20:36:04 GMT -6
That’s a 200+ mile shift northwest for part 2 there. Hi-res as well
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2021 20:42:32 GMT -6
By 30 hours the NAM is definitely going to be more organized. The trough is much sharper, energy much more organized. Let's see how it translates The 00z NAM looks great. A later start time, overnight Sun for the bulk. Definitely more organized. More potential for 4-6" that run! Even tho it definitely looked much better at H5. The well defined vorticity love over the Texas/Oklahoma region that is almost closed off at times starts to weaken as it moves towards Arkansas/Missouri and ends up shearing out. While at the bottom of the trough a much more powerful vorticity takes over. On top of that the kuchera ratios average like 12-1 ending with 15-1. In the end it only prints out 0.25-0.30" qpf closer to 0.20" along 70 and 3-5" of snow. I really thought it was going to pop off more. I do like how consolidated the snow field is. The HIRES nam has 25-1 ratios  |
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