Chris's Corner - Welcome to 2021

Gfs and Gem are terrible. Gfs lost its cold in the extended, pretty much all models have all rain late next weekend, the para gfs is the only one showing any snow . Been through cold bias gem is mostly rain . Lack of any cold air has killed this year. On the models it looks like Iowa/Minnesota continue to be ground zero for more great storms . That still could Change , but two more weeks, I’m still waiting for the effects of the ssw, first it was supposed to be mid January then late January now people are talking about early February for any cold to make it to the USA. It will be spring before we know it .

brtn, seems like you could get another little bit of light snow Monday night, no? Models don't really change any earlier thinking as far as long term weather around here, IMO.

I'm looking ahead, with some interest in next weekend and there are differences in timing for impact to our area, which really results in differences in the amount of cold air availability and therefore sensible weather. All solutions seem to include rain for now. One solution includes a transition to sleet and snow, especially for central mo. Another solution says an icy start to a cold rain to seasonably cold - that's probably, tbh, the most favored solution imo as the air is more of a pacific nature, with plenty of gulf influence.

It's far enough though, that a broad brush chance of rain and snow would make sense late in teh weekend into early the following week. Signs that it could send some pieces of moisture our way prior to that as well.

Now, I'm going to stick my neck out and temper some excitement about February - statistically, winters like this lead to mild Februarys overall. I do see some reason to steer clear of that assumption with how things are evolving currently. But for now, not reason enough to think February is going to be pure winter. EPO may give us a break for a week or so, but I don't see a sustained negative EPO; and in February, it will be just about time for the NAO to flip back to positive, as it has been largely neutral to negative the past couple weeks. Overall, I see February as above normal both in terms of temps and precip. There could be some wide temperature swings, as is often the case in February. For those of you who like the CFS, even that model has a 35 degree temperature anomaly in the middle of February, but the CFS is random, so there's that.

Most of my basis, is that the EPO is pretty consistent without the wide week to week variations that we might see with an NAO. We've seen that this year with it largely being positive. If it goes negative, I would not expect it to stay negative beyond a week or two.

Probably a mix of rain and snow , temps are above freezing mid to upper 30’s but dew points are mid 20’s . Will likely start as mix a d possible turn to all rain during the afternoon as it wet bulbs come up.

Milky sunshine and 38* in Arnold

Even if it is snow it’s not like it’s sticking

Very light flurry and 37° yet.

Now a moderate wet snow shower and 36°

Coming down good in Arnold but it’s 36*

Moderate snow that's meting on contact......again

Steady light snow falling here. 36°F - all melting on contact.

Light snow in Waterloo.

Light snow and 37 degrees

Light snow in Eureka. Not sticking to anything. What a shame.

To he 18z RGEM and GFS are a little bit further to the south west with the front band tomorrow evening, probably a mix of rain/snow with border line temps but as Brtn mentioned earlier heavier precipitation rates could easily overcome that. We need another 20-30 mile shift south and we would be in a good spot. Temps look to drop into the upper 20’s by midnight tomorrow night could make for a refreeze situation after midnight. We’re due for the surprise over performer. We have not had one in a couple years.

Light snow and 36* 7 miles west of De Soto. As far as the group poll, I feel both suck equally.