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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 18, 2021 16:28:34 GMT -6
Back to mostly rain...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2021 17:40:03 GMT -6
It's truly remarkable how much snow hates St. Louis...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 18, 2021 17:43:46 GMT -6
It's truly remarkable how much snow hates St. Louis... Snow or any interesting weather for that matter |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 18, 2021 17:49:56 GMT -6
It's truly remarkable how much snow hates St. Louis... What's your correct obs right now? That's a hefty FGEN band near your neck of the woods. You're telling me that's rain? |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Jan 18, 2021 17:57:19 GMT -6
Glen just said possible accumulating snow this weekend and heads up for the Monday morning commute next week. What is he seeing?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2021 18:02:06 GMT -6
It's truly remarkable how much snow hates St. Louis... What's your correct obs right now? That's a hefty FGEN band near your neck of the woods. You're telling me that's rain? RN/SN mix and 37* |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 18, 2021 18:07:06 GMT -6
What's your correct obs right now? That's a hefty FGEN band near your neck of the woods. You're telling me that's rain? RN/SN mix and 37* Yeah that's sad, but I guess at least you see a few flakes 😂 |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 18, 2021 18:44:50 GMT -6
Glen just said possible accumulating snow this weekend and heads up for the Monday morning commute next week. What is he seeing? Sounds like he looked at the 12z euro and then guessed it would come in slightly colder on future runs |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 18, 2021 18:49:05 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen has a good blog out today on why the SSW has not had a significant impact on our weather yet. It sounds like we are in the midst of a pretty rare period of activity within the stratosphere leading to quite the battle for tropospheric impacts. Worth the read: www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/Now, at least if you trash people who bring up the PV, you’ll see how complicated it is to forecast |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2021 19:18:48 GMT -6
Never has switched over to all snow here...still about a 50/50 mix. It has cooled to 33* though. A friend in Godfrey said it switched to all snow for 15 minutes and laid down a quick dusting but it switched back to rain.
Chalk up another dinker.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 18, 2021 20:03:18 GMT -6
If it helps, not a flurry or drop here lol
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 18, 2021 20:36:36 GMT -6
If it helps, not a flurry or drop here lol Occasional drops in High Ridge...  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 18, 2021 20:53:40 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen has a good blog out today on why the SSW has not had a significant impact on our weather yet. It sounds like we are in the midst of a pretty rare period of activity within the stratosphere leading to quite the battle for tropospheric impacts. Worth the read: www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/Now, at least if you trash people who bring up the PV, you’ll see how complicated it is to forecast I actually agree it is complicated. Hence, I would never bet on a cold winter based on SSW, and I never trashed people who bring it up. If you directed your "trash people" comment to me, you took what I said wrong. I'm saying this because I don't recall any other people voicing a counterpoint to the SSW. I will always doubt that a SSW event alone will have make a winter overall cold. In fact, I suspect more of the opposite, with the event bringing us a period of intense cold, bookended with extremely mild conditions. It's more about ridges and troughs, and if the other side of the globe is enjoying record cold and snow, there's going to be ridges elsewhere bringing mild weather to those regions. While it hasn't been that mild here, overall NH is very mild. It makes sense that persistence is the key. The winners keep winning, and the losers get the scraps. You're right about no two SSWs are the same though, so it makes it difficult to debate with any certainty. My hunch this year....if we get any arctic outbreak, it is likely to be brief, and the end of the outbreak could very well mark the end of winter. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 18, 2021 21:05:36 GMT -6
I also have talked about it, again I get that it’s “complicated “ but there are a lot Of people out there that seem to really live and die by it and like I’ve said it very rarely effects our weather here. Yes there have been a couple times In the last 5-8 years it benefits us, but this is touted every year over and over. And the majority of the time it does absolutely nothing. Hopefully that changes for February, but the benefits everyone talked about for January will come and go with no real effect on our weather. I do follow several of the ssw people on Twitter and it would be awesome if did eventually do something for us with bringing down some cold air . But for the last two years all ssw events did nothing for the US and that’s just the facts unfortunately.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 18, 2021 22:08:49 GMT -6
The persistent trough south of Alaska (aka positive EPO) and resulting Pacific flow keeps shunting the arctic air north and east. That’s been our issue for several years now and I don’t see an end in sight.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 18, 2021 23:13:11 GMT -6
big time.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2021 8:09:42 GMT -6
Looks like there was a ~5mi wide band of accumulating snow last night between Godfrey and Brighton...outside of that...nada
Quite a bit of black ice this morning though.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 19, 2021 8:41:45 GMT -6
I also have talked about it, again I get that it’s “complicated “ but there are a lot Of people out there that seem to really live and die by it and like I’ve said it very rarely effects our weather here. Yes there have been a couple times In the last 5-8 years it benefits us, but this is touted every year over and over. And the majority of the time it does absolutely nothing. Hopefully that changes for February, but the benefits everyone talked about for January will come and go with no real effect on our weather. I do follow several of the ssw people on Twitter and it would be awesome if did eventually do something for us with bringing down some cold air . But for the last two years all ssw events did nothing for the US and that’s just the facts unfortunately. I almost said something similar to your statement, but last time I said that, somebody cited an example of a 3 day intense cold several years ago. the bubble of cold air zipped on by with mostly clear skies too. Not a fan of 2* without snow cover, but others are, and I get that. I shouldn't complain about cold, my gas heating bill is 45 per month for a 2800 sq foot home. Now if we can get a negative EPO with a weak PV, but as Stg, no end in sight. If anything the trough in teh pacific actually looks like it's intensifying with some strong pacific storms. Could be a harbinger of Spring to come. I can see some severe storms popping this Spring for sure, and perhaps as early as late Winter, especially if February turns milder. The reason for that, is I do see some potential for troughiness and cold air sinking south along the mountainous ranges, and with the build up of the southeast ridge, feeding gulf moisture into the area, any cutter would likely bring us storms. Incidentally cpc has heavy rain threat for areas along and south of the OH valley over the next 7 days, and that includes areas along and south of a line from Poplar Bluff to Sikeston and Charleston in MO. Hopefully that gets squashed. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2021 8:48:18 GMT -6
SSW and PV splits/displacements are correlated with more extreme cold and/or snow.
No, they don’t all magically make it cold or snowy in Saint Louis.
People talk about them because they are meaningful and material to the weather.
They are not a silver bullet though.
That should clear my position up.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 19, 2021 8:54:18 GMT -6
I'm not sure if the historical data is still available for the EPO index over the last 50 years like it used to be. But if it is, run it alongside accumulated snowfall. The correlation is unbelievably strong even from a statistical standpoint. And even I'm saying that as more of an "eye-test" guy.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 19, 2021 9:59:34 GMT -6
I hate to even mention this but the ICON has a borderline ice storm/backend snow for Monday, followed by another system. Both much further south than previous runs.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 19, 2021 10:05:35 GMT -6
I hate to even mention this but the ICON has a borderline ice storm/backend snow for Monday, followed by another system. Both much further south than previous runs. Brigette Mahoney mentioned that as a possibility this morning, too. But too soon to tell. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 19, 2021 10:21:23 GMT -6
That last week of Jan is typically when we get our good storms but the GFS is way too warm.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 19, 2021 10:52:37 GMT -6
Lots of rain potentially headed our way according to the GFS and also the GEM. My kids keep yelling at me for the lack of snow. Man...if I had that kind of control over time and space.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2021 10:57:53 GMT -6
Models have plenty of cold lurking into next week but whether or not those systems eject favorably to tap into it is another story. It will probably take a well timed shortwave in the N branch to coax it down. The system coming through around Monday looks like another borderline ice event to me. And the storm showing up around the 28th looks to track a bit further south maybe...so there could be better snow potential with that. But who knows at this range.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2021 11:47:42 GMT -6
The rest of the month looks like a complete dud. The systems this weekend and next week look to have no cold air to work with as troughing develops on the west coast and ridging develops over the middle of the country. After that we look to enter NW flow but any cold looks to be shunted well to the east as the trough will set up off the east coast of the CONUS. This “winter” can’t end soon enough
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 19, 2021 11:59:41 GMT -6
Wow the models never get the cold here. Time for spring if it is going to act like this. Heck to me it has never really felt like winter accept maybe the cold on christmas. This feels more like an extended late fall, or early spring almost as if we are only having 3 seasons instead of 4.
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Post by birddog on Jan 19, 2021 12:33:08 GMT -6
Well, that event went from 1-2" of snow down to trace to 1". Ended with .04" of rain.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 19, 2021 12:48:46 GMT -6
havent looked today, but i saw a disco mentioning split flow. i wld assume from that, cold air locked up north, with wasted systems to the south. sounds like verbiage youd see in el nino.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2021 13:00:15 GMT -6
Euro and Icon are definitely colder further south next week with some snow/ice in the area. Gem and Gfs are warmer with all rain .
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