|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jan 19, 2021 13:49:56 GMT -6
I'm not sure if the historical data is still available for the EPO index over the last 50 years like it used to be. But if it is, run it alongside accumulated snowfall. The correlation is unbelievably strong even from a statistical standpoint. And even I'm saying that as more of an "eye-test" guy. I did that a while back and posted some daily EPO (and NAO) vs. 2 day snowfall at KSTL charts. Trying to test the theory that snowfall is correlated to current EPO. The correlation was very weak at best (same with NAO). It's difficult to draw firm conclusions from that particular analysis because it was pretty narrowly focused though. |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jan 19, 2021 13:59:52 GMT -6
I also have talked about it, again I get that it’s “complicated “ but there are a lot Of people out there that seem to really live and die by it and like I’ve said it very rarely effects our weather here. Yes there have been a couple times In the last 5-8 years it benefits us, but this is touted every year over and over. And the majority of the time it does absolutely nothing. Hopefully that changes for February, but the benefits everyone talked about for January will come and go with no real effect on our weather. I do follow several of the ssw people on Twitter and it would be awesome if did eventually do something for us with bringing down some cold air . But for the last two years all ssw events did nothing for the US and that’s just the facts unfortunately. So my take is this. It's pretty well established that sudden stratospheric warming can effect weather...eventually...even here. The problem is that while it's pretty well understood that SSW leads to a more wavy tropospheric polar vortex it's not very well understood where exactly the troughs and ridges wind up for any particular event. It could be colder or milder or tranquil or stormy...but it is weather. |
|
bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
Member is Online
|
Post by bob on Jan 19, 2021 14:08:10 GMT -6
What does EURO show? anything significant?
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2021 14:30:13 GMT -6
No on euro , heavier snow northern Missouri a d northern Illinois. Light snow around I-70 north mostly rain further south
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 19, 2021 15:03:48 GMT -6
They had some SERIOUS hamster flakes in Moberly yesterday!
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2021 16:32:22 GMT -6
18z GFS looks a little better, similar to the euro, a little more cold air and further track allows for the storm to produce more snow in our area
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Jan 19, 2021 16:38:11 GMT -6
#wxtwitter has the memes.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2021 16:42:17 GMT -6
That’s so true!
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2021 16:43:16 GMT -6
Stormchasernick is one of the best follows on Twitter if your into weather and memes
|
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Jan 19, 2021 16:53:52 GMT -6
My thoughts on SSWs and TCs are this.
If we need one, the winter is pretty bleak. They can assist in disrupting well established patterns, provided there are enough other factors involved as well. They aren’t always a savior. Not only are they extremely difficult to forecast, they are extremely difficult to assimilate into sensible weather. Add to it that they often just deliver bone chilling cold and very little in the way of consistently snowy weather. Lastly, they typically act as bookends, either ushering in a storm or allowing one to occur as it retreats.
IRT teleconnections, I’d really like to see data on forecast vs. actual. Often times I feel that there are favorable teleconnections forecasted only to either flip or not be realized. When they are accurate, I believe they are a great tool to be able to bounce models against what “should” happen.
Regardless, I think it’s really arrogant to think we have even scratched the surface of the delicate balance of climate and weather and the driving forces that disrupt those balances.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 19, 2021 19:24:56 GMT -6
The trends look favorable in the latest model runs. Both the euro and gfs, and gfs16 show snow potential in January. euro is contrary to both gfs in terms of sensible wx -- offering a warmer solution next week, but a colder solution in fantasy period. Focus is on trends. GFS16 is pretty bullish on snow chances next week...two lows, one bringing snow to the 70 corridor, and the next bringing snow to our south
|
|
|
|
Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 19, 2021 19:57:14 GMT -6
So... are we still at the two more week point?
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2021 20:40:06 GMT -6
Maybe one .... but most likely two or three or maybe 40
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 19, 2021 22:07:54 GMT -6
The blocking high over Hudson Bay right now is impressive! 00z GFS looks like it's going to be halfway decent for early next week! 🤔 We actually may have cold air to work with. Would you imagine that haha.
Edit I jinxed it or at this point we're cursed...too flat a wave 😂
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 19, 2021 22:36:00 GMT -6
Well the 00z GEM is fun for next week!
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2021 23:12:15 GMT -6
The 00z ukmet is hilariously cruel.
989 mb low in Evansville with a perfect deformation zone of rain.
If it were colder, this run would be an easy 6-10 incher, maybe more.
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jan 20, 2021 1:01:18 GMT -6
Well, I tried to "shift things up a little" since I got a late start looking at the models. Instead of looking at the GFS first I went for it all with the Euro. I about sh*% when I seen a 1000mb low in TX at hr 120 strengthen to a 994mb low at hr 144 very near our wheelhouse. So I jumped to the 850mb temps at hr 144 and there it was......the 850 freeze line was up near Quincy.
WTH. I am going to start rooting for the futility record. Maybe things will turn around while I am hoping for sunny days in the 50's or 60's. Does anyone see anything that looks promising? It seems even the big rainers haven't materialized this winter. Monday's system has the looks of decent secondary development, but we need the first system to drag more cold air down and that seems to be our curse this year. Mia hum dee da!
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2021 6:30:43 GMT -6
Last night's models look better for the Sun/Mon system with more N stream influence and cold air getting into the mix. If we can maintain that confluent, NW flow across the N tier and Lakes, it should block the storm from coming too far north.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2021 7:39:01 GMT -6
The 06z GFS is light years better. Not as flat. As Btrn mentioned the positioning of the cold (540dm thickness) will determine if the storm goes north and we're singing in the rain or south and we are dry as bone. The 06z GFS has the confluent flow across the Great Lakes that Btrn mentioned. For anyone who wants to picture in their mind what confluence is...picture vectors (arrows) of the same length going toward each other. Convergence...picture vectors (arrows) of decreasing length going toward each other.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2021 9:07:40 GMT -6
6z euro control takes a 995 mb low from St. Louis to Indy.
Another battle between the euro and gfs brewing.
Generally, I see the euro being overly aggressive in strength at this range, but noteworthy the strong ensemble clustering.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2021 9:28:54 GMT -6
The 06z GFS is light years better. Not as flat. As Btrn mentioned the positioning of the cold (540dm thickness) will determine if the storm goes north and we're singing in the rain or south and we are dry as bone. The 06z GFS has the confluent flow across the Great Lakes that Btrn mentioned. For anyone who wants to picture in their mind what confluence is...picture vectors (arrows) of the same length going toward each other. Convergence...picture vectors (arrows) of decreasing length going toward each other. Definitely a good trend overall with a better placement of the boundary to our south for secondary development. Models dig the shortwave rotating under the vortex across S/central Canada which allows the colder air to get in place...hopefully that trend continues. |
|
bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
Member is Online
|
Post by bob on Jan 20, 2021 9:30:18 GMT -6
WC does the EURO solution give more snow than the GFS?
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2021 9:31:30 GMT -6
6z euro control takes a 995 mb low from St. Louis to Indy. Another battle between the euro and gfs brewing. Generally, I see the euro being overly aggressive in strength at this range, but noteworthy the strong ensemble clustering. The EC has been too far north/amplified/warm several times this season at this range with similar setups for sure. The "ice storm" on NYD is a perfect example. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2021 9:32:46 GMT -6
WC does the EURO solution give more snow than the GFS? Last night's EURO showed a solid hit of wet deformation snow across the N half of the CWA on Monday, similar to the GEM. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 20, 2021 9:35:24 GMT -6
There goes the ICON with a big shift north with the parent low. It was like we barely even knew ya, digital snow.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 20, 2021 10:08:58 GMT -6
Of course then the GFS shifts way south, ha.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2021 10:18:42 GMT -6
Of course then the GFS shifts way south, ha. Solid dartboard accuracy... |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2021 10:33:31 GMT -6
12z gem is a Chicago storm.
So, Icon and gem shift north towards the euro. The gfs goes south.
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jan 20, 2021 10:35:40 GMT -6
I was comparing the 06z and 12z 500mb vort maps and it looked to me like the cold pool took a little more (key word little) southerly push to keep the system from cutting north. I could also see that the 500 vort was weaker. Although it looks like another thread the needle set up (what's new) the cold looks to be in place 'if' the Monday storm can be not too weak, not too strong, but just right. And I won't use 'that' analogy.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 20, 2021 10:45:00 GMT -6
12z gem is a Chicago storm. So, Icon and gem shift north towards the euro. The gfs goes south. I know where my money is lol. |
|
