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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2021 11:11:18 GMT -6
12z ukmet is borderline Kaboom.
Temps are very marginal, but a perfect track and tons of moisture.
Could be an STL crusher
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 20, 2021 11:12:22 GMT -6
Hope you get a huge snowstorm WSC. You always root for us to get one.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 20, 2021 11:13:19 GMT -6
number 12 on the chart for latest 1 inch of snow, as of tomorrow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2021 11:15:59 GMT -6
Hope you get a huge snowstorm WSC. You always root for us to get one. Thanks, if I had to guess, I would say this one ends up right between STL and Chicago so we all feel the pain equally lol. Hasn’t been kind to us up north this season either |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2021 11:35:59 GMT -6
The 12z gfs ensembles should give everyone low confidence in the operational run.
Just eyeballing it, the distribution is about 33% of members suppressed, 33% of members that are good for STL, and 33% of members that are too far north.
That makes it hard to take the operational gfs seriously at the moment.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 20, 2021 11:53:08 GMT -6
The chief meterologist at the channel that rhymes with door said on Facebook today that there is not a reasonable chance of snow in the next two weeks. Sounds familiar...
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 20, 2021 12:12:34 GMT -6
interesting to note, and maybe it has been brought up...but according to Chris chart, there is no february dates for latest 1 inch snow. it jumps from jan to march.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2021 12:23:49 GMT -6
12z euro is going to be north
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2021 12:28:00 GMT -6
12z euro is going to be north It’s almost a given now that model will be the most amped in the medium range |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2021 12:29:46 GMT -6
12z euro is going to be north It’s almost a given now that model will be the most amped in the medium range I mentioned as much earlier, but usually it’s a blip, not sustained for 3-4 runs. Looks like it is onto something. You guys are all in on the ukmet |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 20, 2021 12:29:53 GMT -6
What’s the lowest amount of snow we’ve ever gotten during winter? Just wondering how we’ll do this year?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2021 12:42:29 GMT -6
It’s almost a given now that model will be the most amped in the medium range I mentioned as much earlier, but usually it’s a blip, not sustained for 3-4 runs. Looks like it is onto something. You guys are all in on the ukmet It’s going to be an absolute thread the needle situation to get accumulating snow in STL. Even with the ukmets near perfect track it’s to warm for accumulating snow in STL. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 20, 2021 12:42:48 GMT -6
What’s the lowest amount of snow we’ve ever gotten during winter? Just wondering how we’ll do this year? I believe it's 1.5" at KSTL. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 20, 2021 12:52:08 GMT -6
holy cow
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 20, 2021 13:35:36 GMT -6
What’s the lowest amount of snow we’ve ever gotten during winter? Just wondering how we’ll do this year? I believe it's 1.5" at KSTL. There is actually a discrepancy here. The official data from the National Center for Environmental Information says 0.7" in 1931. The local NWS office says 1.5" in 1954. I am highly suspicious of the 1931 value though. The NWS office recognizes the years 1929-1935 as being missing. I think for now it is safe to assume that 1.5" would be the futility record. |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 20, 2021 13:56:14 GMT -6
I believe it's 1.5" at KSTL. There is actually a discrepancy here. The official data from the National Center for Environmental Information says 0.7" in 1931. The local NWS office says 1.5" in 1954. I am highly suspicious of the 1931 value though. The NWS office recognizes the years 1929-1935 as being missing. I think for now it is safe to assume that 1.5" would be the futility record. Wasn't 1954 the hottest summer on record as well? Hmm.... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2021 14:01:44 GMT -6
12z EPS low locations Strong signal for a system but location is still uncertain. I just have a bad feeling with this system that even if it does track south of the area the cold won’t be here in time  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2021 14:07:21 GMT -6
The GEFS is on a different planet taking all the lows well south of the area
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2021 14:13:19 GMT -6
The GFS is noticeably more amplified with the vortex and confluence underneath. I feel like it's probably more realistic with the strong west-based -NAO which should support NW flow across the N tier opposed to the low-amplitude ridging that the further N solutions develop.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 20, 2021 20:20:18 GMT -6
The GFS is noticeably more amplified with the vortex and confluence underneath. I feel like it's probably more realistic with the strong west-based -NAO which should support NW flow across the N tier opposed to the low-amplitude ridging that the further N solutions develop. so you're saying there's a chance? lol |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 20, 2021 20:22:57 GMT -6
There is actually a discrepancy here. The official data from the National Center for Environmental Information says 0.7" in 1931. The local NWS office says 1.5" in 1954. I am highly suspicious of the 1931 value though. The NWS office recognizes the years 1929-1935 as being missing. I think for now it is safe to assume that 1.5" would be the futility record. Wasn't 1954 the hottest summer on record as well? Hmm.... yeah, and we had a hot summer after a non-winter I think it was 2013? And with expansive drought over the west...I'm concerned. btw, looks like more and more ensembles are showing nao flipping positive around the beginning of Feb. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2021 20:40:38 GMT -6
18z euro control takes the low right over STL.
Starting to establish good run-to-run consistency.
I think the gfs is flat out wrong
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Jan 20, 2021 20:55:57 GMT -6
Wc does the EURO give us mainly rain?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2021 20:59:16 GMT -6
Wc does the EURO give us mainly rain? Definitely not a good track for snow. You want it at least down by the boot heel to be in the conversation. Let’s see if the gfs caves tonight |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 20, 2021 21:00:18 GMT -6
Looking at next winter on the cpc it looks more favorable with a blob of above normal precip over the mid mississippi Valley. Just something I noticed.
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Post by bear1 on Jan 20, 2021 21:03:08 GMT -6
if I didn't know better, I'd think the arch effects has a lot more influence on the weather models than we know!!  
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2021 21:05:46 GMT -6
18z euro control takes the low right over STL. Starting to establish good run-to-run consistency. I think the gfs is flat out wrong Run to run consistency on the euro isn’t what it used to be. Just look at the system on New Years Eve. Not trying to say it’s wrong, just pointing out how volatile the models have been recently. Hard to trust them past 24 hours anymore |
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sals20
Wishcaster
Imperial, MO.
Posts: 92
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Post by sals20 on Jan 20, 2021 21:29:55 GMT -6
Just curious if we are still playing short handed or are we back to full strength? Missing some of are "players."
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Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2021 22:05:37 GMT -6
Of course the GFS jumped way north and joined the northern party . Looks like a big Rainer for the Lou!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2021 22:06:24 GMT -6
Gfs is starting its march towards the euro
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