|
|
Post by snowjunky on Jan 20, 2021 22:08:10 GMT -6
Glen had snow on Monday and Tuesday. LMAO
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2021 22:13:32 GMT -6
I was a little wrong it’s definitely further north mostly rain but brings the snow really close to St. Louis northern metro. It looks like the Gem is coming in further south closer to the gfs per the black and white charts. It’s low placement is almost identical at 120. It has good snow in northern mo , it’s hard to tell how far south
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2021 22:17:13 GMT -6
GFSv16 takes the low well south of STL, has us right in the deformation sweet spot, but it’s all rain lol
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2021 22:21:04 GMT -6
It’s actually not all rain looking at the snow maps it’s putting out. Looks like rain to backside wet snow
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2021 22:26:35 GMT -6
I’d say it’s definitely not over at five days out , we’re close to snow. The gem looks to have a stronger high pressure up in northern Minnesota. The problem is we need everything to be nearly perfect for us to get some snow.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2021 22:43:56 GMT -6
00z GEM is purty, but has a razor thin cutoff line you southerners. Someone has to get screwed or maybe we all will get screwed. Stay tuned.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2021 22:45:06 GMT -6
00z gfs ensembles are north.
Definitely, was one heck of a jump
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jan 20, 2021 22:45:25 GMT -6
One of my favorite winter weather events...rainy deformation...yay
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2021 22:47:00 GMT -6
Gem is about as good as it gets with the classic 3-6” def zone right up the I44 corridor. Could we just lock this in now. That was a big shift south from all its last runs . I do like the fact that most models are showing the snow window of the storm is centered around 6pm Monday to 10am Tuesday. So if it did snow, it would likely be at night. Which is always a good thing for us
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2021 22:49:38 GMT -6
You have gem/gfs/Ukmet vs the euro, I’m good with that . The king is so not as good as he once was... I do think it could literally go anyway . I’m just trying to wish cast this thing in for more than a .25” snowstorm
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2021 23:11:51 GMT -6
00z ukmet has a very impressive, very depressing deformation zone with a bullseye on STL.
Tons of moisture, but temps are a hair too warm.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2021 23:20:39 GMT -6
Yes it’s so close, but it stays consistent with its track. We just need a little more cold air or the perfect storm strength and def zone. Our only shot at this storm is back side snow. With out a good def zone with the perfect track we’re dead in the water.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2021 8:40:59 GMT -6
00z euro and 6z euro control have an STL to Indy low track.
Extremely consistent for at least half a dozen runs now.
6z gefs edging north as well.
Let’s see what this morning brings
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2021 9:07:44 GMT -6
Yes not a good look for St. Louis, probably a southern Iowa storm
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2021 9:19:53 GMT -6
I rather just get missed to the north than have to deal with a rainy deformation zone.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 21, 2021 9:27:21 GMT -6
Hope you get a huge snowstorm WSC. You always root for us to get one. Thanks, if I had to guess, I would say this one ends up right between STL and Chicago so we all feel the pain equally lol. Hasn’t been kind to us up north this season either This is starting to look like a solid prediction. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2021 9:29:53 GMT -6
Thanks, if I had to guess, I would say this one ends up right between STL and Chicago so we all feel the pain equally lol. Hasn’t been kind to us up north this season either This is starting to look like a solid prediction. Well, the 12z Icon is what I pictured in my head when I posted that 😂 |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jan 21, 2021 9:43:52 GMT -6
I know it's been mentioned before but we have to get a snow shield laid down to our north. I know it's been mentioned that when there's a snow shield down the cold or the storm track seems to get edged further south. And the only way we're going to get a consistent snow shield laid to our north is to get the fire hose from the Pacific shut off.
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jan 21, 2021 9:50:23 GMT -6
Holy smokes I'm surprised no one in here didn't post it, oh wait I guess there's a rule against that. Euro ensemble snow fall total for 15 days...wheeze practically in the bullseye.... book it Danno😊
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2021 9:52:04 GMT -6
I know it's been mentioned before but we have to get a snow shield laid down to our north. I know it's been mentioned that when there's a snow shield down the cold or the storm track seems to get edged further south. And the only way we're going to get a consistent snow shield laid to our north is to get the fire hose from the Pacific shut off. Sooo, how did that workout when Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, and Louisiana got accumulating snow? More than anything, we just need less sheared out garbage. For instance, the storm behind the Monday one would be good for the metro if it didn’t get ripped apart. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2021 9:52:46 GMT -6
That would be rough you guys and us miss all the snow
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 21, 2021 10:06:53 GMT -6
Oh wow! I was just thinking how bad I would love some late January heavy rain!
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2021 10:14:46 GMT -6
It’s going to rough watching it snow 25-50 miles north of me, I might take a little road trip!
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2021 10:14:59 GMT -6
GFS is a northern MO to Central IL mauler
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2021 10:20:46 GMT -6
GFS is a northern MO to Central IL mauler I’m pretty impressed with the top end potential of this deformation zone. We have seen a lot of weak ones. Most models showing a decent area of 1-1.5 QPF, so some big snow totals are looking possible somewhere in the region. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2021 10:23:28 GMT -6
I’m so wore out from model worshiping all winter and with this one showing very little promise for the St. Louis area, I really don’t care at this point. I definitely want it to snow
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2021 10:33:50 GMT -6
Gem crushes northern Missouri and northern Illinois, we need that 50-100 mile shift south to get into any snow or else we will be singing in the cold rain and mid to upper 30’s
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 21, 2021 10:48:59 GMT -6
I would not discount a shift south. Fits the trend a bit. Dont give up until at least saturday. I am not sure if it is sampled yet.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2021 10:51:29 GMT -6
It won’t take much , I am enjoying the nice day today!
|
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Jan 21, 2021 10:53:03 GMT -6
|
|
