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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 26, 2021 17:12:24 GMT -6
It should come down at a decent clip.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2021 17:25:55 GMT -6
It should come down at a decent clip. Based on model trends the past couple cycles I'd tend to agree. May get a burst of moderate snow at the peak for an hour or so. This thing is flying, so it won't last long, but could be a nice shot of snow while it lasts. Or it could completely split or collapse over us, so there's that, lol. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 26, 2021 17:28:19 GMT -6
Yea, the way the short termers are trending I’d say a pretty decent hit for 4-5 hours. I think ~2” will be the rule down this way. Maybe a hair more if we are lucky. The last one was supposed to be no accumulation per NWS and we got 1.5” so we shall see.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 26, 2021 17:33:01 GMT -6
Yes timing for this in my area is a concern....will be leaving at 1am to go pretreat lots and sidewalks. Not sure grounds temps will be below freezing but darkness and intensity rates could be the issue.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jan 26, 2021 17:35:36 GMT -6
What the is it like to have a thick blanket of snow? Those make me sad labrat. It's cold. Very cold. The neighbor kids dug into the piles at the end of their driveway to make easy forts. I saw my neighbor across the street snow blowing the sidewalk on both sides of the road. He is awesome. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2021 19:27:41 GMT -6
Oz Here..lol. I wish
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2021 19:32:27 GMT -6
What does that mean?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2021 19:35:05 GMT -6
00z HRRR is a solid 2-3”
QPF of 0.3”
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2021 19:37:55 GMT -6
Yes I just saw that , the RAP continues to be close to .3 qpf as well. We’ll see what the NAM’s show. What is the SREF mean QPF?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2021 19:39:36 GMT -6
Have to say models are starting to look pretty favorable in the longer range towards D10 and beyond...the -EPO looks to get established as the vortex descends towards Hudson Bay with a generally split flow favoring NW flow/surface ridging across the N tier and energy digging into the Great Basin and ejecting into the Plains. This pattern looks much more favorable for arctic air intrusions into the lower 48 and could favor significant overrunning events. Hopefully that holds up because it's the best look we've had by far this season and the GEFS, EPS, and NAEFS all look fairly similar with large scale features and blocking patterns.
The latest polar height anomaly chart shows that the decending strat warming burst broke through the tropopause the past week which would signal a significant disruption to the tropospheric vortex well into February.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 26, 2021 19:47:58 GMT -6
Yes I just saw that , the RAP continues to be close to .3 qpf as well. We’ll see what the NAM’s show. What is the SREF mean QPF? SREF mean QPF is roughly .125" (1/8"). Pretty tight clustering from .03 to .175. Total Snow mean is just under 1". Clustering from .02" to just above 1.75". Here is the site I have used the last several years. SREF Plume Viewer |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2021 19:51:21 GMT -6
How many times have things looked good 10 days or more out with a favorable pattern developing. Too many to count and only enough snow to count with 1 finger..or part of 1.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 26, 2021 19:59:46 GMT -6
Goodness I missed your positivity.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2021 20:06:00 GMT -6
Look around. What's there to be positive about snow wise this winter. Lmao. I mean seriously.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2021 20:06:51 GMT -6
And the nam is crummy except for se mo
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2021 20:22:25 GMT -6
You're right, I don't know why I even bothered since you always know better.
I'll eagerly await future posts from you about how much the weather sucks and how wrong everybody else is.
What a great contribution to this forum you are.
Slow clap, dude.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2021 20:27:02 GMT -6
Whoa whoa whoa . Did I say anyone was wrong? Nope. I said how many times has the pattern looked favorable in the future. I didn't say a damn thing about anyone saying anything. I love it when you guys put words in my mouth. I mean there have been many people all over the internet and otherwise who have said a favorable pattern was setting up, and it was true at the time. You all need to stop being defensive about a post that wasn't attacking anyone. At all.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2021 20:29:45 GMT -6
Soooo I feel pretty good about 1-2" tomorrow. The potential does look to be there for an isolated 3" south of 44 but that probability seems low atm
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 26, 2021 20:33:05 GMT -6
 WWA for the western counties now as well |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2021 20:36:08 GMT -6
Our private services have just bumped up to the 1-2” range in the last hour . 6-8 am start 12p-2 p stop I guess there watching the HRRR and RAP
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Jan 26, 2021 20:37:48 GMT -6
Our private services have just bumped up to the 1-2” range in the last hour . 6-8 am start 12p-2 p stop I guess there watching the HRRR and RAP Are we thinking they move the WWA further west? I could use a snow day😁 |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2021 20:38:16 GMT -6
I bet they will have to add st.Charles/st Louis/Jefferson counties to that at some point.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 26, 2021 20:39:16 GMT -6
I’ll chime in and try to be a little more diplomatic than I was in the first post. I guess my stance is...we all know it has sucked. And it’s the culmination of many years of sucky winters so I get it. But I don’t really understand the benefit of saying it over and over again. You’re right, we have seen promising patterns at D10 turn to crap. But I think being positive and hopeful is almost always the way to go. In weather and in life.
Anyway, HRRR is popping some 3-4” amounts around Rolla. Unlikely but hey at least it’s getting juicier rather than drying up like we’ve seen.
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Post by Farmtown WX on Jan 26, 2021 20:39:42 GMT -6
WWA for the western counties now as well Weird. NWS site still showing 0-1 for me. What part of the site did you pull this from?  |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 26, 2021 20:40:26 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2021 20:53:06 GMT -6
2 inches would be nice. My dog would enjoy it too. Unfortunately I work tonight 11-7 then go back at 3. I have to sleep somewhere in there. While it's snowing of course lol.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2021 21:04:14 GMT -6
This HRRR sounding tomorrow is money. It will be ripping pretty good if this comes true  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2021 21:13:24 GMT -6
Nice how many hours does the sounding look good for ? Still decent flake size I’m assuming
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Jan 26, 2021 21:16:04 GMT -6
Our private services have just bumped up to the 1-2” range in the last hour . 6-8 am start 12p-2 p stop I guess there watching the HRRR and RAP What company do you guys use? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2021 21:28:17 GMT -6
Nice how many hours does the sounding look good for ? Still decent flake size I’m assuming We should see 2-3 hours of steady snow tomorrow bookend by some lighter stuff. Flake size in the heavier snow should be good with steep lapse rates and good lift in the DGZ |
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