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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 14, 2021 10:18:24 GMT -6
I’m starting to get a good feeling about Sunday’s clipper..... this is the perfect track for a little over achiever ..... models usually don’t catch up to the strength until about 24 hrs out.....
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2021 10:20:45 GMT -6
GFS and Icon are ejecting next week's storm too quick and have the cold air setting up to our north. Likely to be a significant storm in the middle of the country but as of right now we would be singing in the rain.
There's still a hell of a lot of energy coming ashore in the SW and some REAL cold looming just beyond that...so the outlook for a wintry stormy pattern is still on the table. There will be lots to sort out.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2021 11:06:04 GMT -6
My phone just said light snow showers currently and 44F. I'm guessing that is not correct  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2021 11:27:47 GMT -6
NAM snow squall parameter almost off the chart Friday and the 12km run looks good for Sunday. If we don't get the ground covered this weekend, we're 100% cursed!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2021 11:37:18 GMT -6
The HREF and National Blend of Models are both showing 1-2" across the area tomorrow. I think the wild card tomorrow could be the potential for burst of heavy snow in squalls. Like BRTN just mentioned the snow squall parameters tomorrow are very high
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Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2021 12:20:27 GMT -6
NAM looks better than most models for Sunday
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2021 12:47:37 GMT -6
12z euro has the storm late next week.
That one has potential
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Post by bear1 on Jan 14, 2021 12:51:27 GMT -6
Sprinkles starting here in Bourbon, temp at 45°
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 14, 2021 13:05:01 GMT -6
can't wait for next week's rain storm. going to be epic
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 14, 2021 13:08:10 GMT -6
Anyone notice the far NW counties of MO are under a blizzard warning for tomorrow? Lot's of wind, some snow, lot's of blowing snow. Must be nice.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2021 13:13:26 GMT -6
At least there’s a chance of snow, better than a torch
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2021 13:14:00 GMT -6
Last time models were forecasting "just rain" at this range, it turned out awfully icy for parts of the region...
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Post by bear1 on Jan 14, 2021 13:25:34 GMT -6
Rain & 39° now.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2021 13:36:32 GMT -6
Crazy how that low just swings down from the north and right on top of STL. Very creative way to try and dry slot someone!
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Post by Farmtown WX on Jan 14, 2021 13:43:09 GMT -6
So is this a steep cutoff to the south type event, with much less as you go south toward Farmington? Some of the models definitely favor central into SE MO... It appears to be a psuedo-trowal feature that focuses northwest to southeast in that area. I went ahead and posted 1-2 inches in that region...with 1" or less pretty much everywhere else.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 14, 2021 14:06:05 GMT -6
More of a fuzzy cutouff. I expect everyone to see some flakes. With borderline temps at the surface, any accumulation will be tied to intensity of snowfall. Areas that dont get "bursting" snow showers may struggle to see much accumulation.
Speeking of marginal temps... it continues to be striking how little cold air exists up north... even in the "cold" side of the circulation.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2021 14:15:46 GMT -6
Winter is coming...models are loading up Canada with arctic air into next week and beyond. Some hints of cross polar flow developing with the ridge popping off north of AK.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2021 14:15:46 GMT -6
I wonder if we won't see a snow squall warning or two around here tomorrow. I don't think the LSX office has issued one since they rolled out a couple of years ago
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2021 14:18:57 GMT -6
I wonder if we won't see a snow squall warning or two around here tomorrow. I don't think the LSX office has issued one since they rolled out a couple of years ago This is the best setup I've seen for SNSH since a few years ago when that pinwheel upper low dropped SE out of IA and sprayed the region with squalls. I drove through one up near Carrollton and it was a complete white out. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 14, 2021 14:20:16 GMT -6
Had some big fat rain drops here. Hopefully big fat snowflakes tomorrow. And yeah..all the cold is over in europe and places , while we struggle to get freezing. This is why I'm leaning on rain next week. There might be more cold by that time in canada, but nothing too cold probably. Who knows.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2021 14:37:51 GMT -6
Advisory hoisted
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 14, 2021 14:54:19 GMT -6
Post frontal rain in January.... LOL
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 14, 2021 14:56:44 GMT -6
Interesting that they decided to be bullish and issue an advisory. |
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Post by snowday_lover on Jan 14, 2021 15:23:18 GMT -6
Unfortunately a few of us didn’t get an advisory. Maybe they’ll add us later???
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2021 15:26:59 GMT -6
From the AFD:
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Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2021 15:41:37 GMT -6
I totally agree with that statement, i wish the precipitation was 6 -8 hours later . We would have better accumulation and less melting than day time snow . But I definitely think in the more moderate or heavy bands you will see pavements cover , even if it’s for short periods of time. Could be changeable road conditions in a d out of the bands.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 14, 2021 15:42:07 GMT -6
Guess I should put a salt spreader on the truck
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Post by amstilost on Jan 14, 2021 16:02:16 GMT -6
Guess I should put a salt spreader on the truck Please, anything but that.  |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 14, 2021 16:14:13 GMT -6
Well it looks like tomorrow will be the highlight of this winter thus far if it comes to fruition. Steep low level lapse rates and strong frontogenesis get the job done. As well, this storm has deep cyclonic flow which should help us out. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 14, 2021 16:40:20 GMT -6
Guess I should put a salt spreader on the truck That'll jinx it. |
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