Chris's Corner - The Spring Cut-off Season has Arrived

Medium-range guidance
remains in fairly good agreement that another large-scale upper
trough will advance eastward from the western CONUS to the Plains in
the Day 6/Monday to Day 7/Tuesday time frame. The past several runs
of the deterministic ECMWF show a very favorable setup for organized
severe thunderstorms capable of producing all severe hazards across
parts of central TX into OK and southern KS, with moderate to strong
instability forecast to overlap rich low-level moisture in the
presence of strong deep-layer shear. There has been a consistent
enough signal in guidance suggesting a substantial severe threat may
develop across these areas next Tuesday to introduce 15% severe
probabilities. Greater probabilities may be needed if current model
trends continue. Finally, some severe threat may continue on Day
8/Wednesday across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley as the upper
trough moves eastward. But, there is too much uncertainty regarding
the evolution of convection on Tuesday and the quality of low-level
moisture return with eastward extent to include a 15% severe area
for next Wednesday.