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Post by scmhack on Apr 26, 2021 13:35:37 GMT -6
10s of cases from 30s and younger out of 6.5 million. I'll take those odds any day |
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 26, 2021 14:31:30 GMT -6
I was hoping we'd get another 2-4+" of rain later this week. Ridiculous
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Apr 26, 2021 16:42:54 GMT -6
I was hoping we'd get another 2-4+" of rain later this week. Ridiculous Better than 4-8 |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 26, 2021 23:40:26 GMT -6
This is going to be an extremely tough system to message because I feel like the band of very heavy rain (3+) is likely to be very narrow...maybe a county wide... and outside of that narrow band... rainfall may be significantly lighter (less than 1) Using the centroid of the GFS ensemble mean... and the mean of the other models favors the band somewhere near of just southeast of the I-44 corridor in MO and I-70 in Illinois.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 27, 2021 0:21:33 GMT -6
Has the severe threat with this system diminished or is that still on the table?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 27, 2021 0:37:52 GMT -6
Has the severe threat with this system diminished or is that still on the table? Hard to rule out a rogue wind report due to water loading... but threat seems low. |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Apr 27, 2021 6:31:44 GMT -6
Hi guys,
What is the chance that the Cardinals game gets played tomorrow night? Have tickets and am worried that it will get cancelled and get rescheduled as a doubleheader Thursday and of course I can't go Thursday. Thoughts?
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Post by Tilawn on Apr 27, 2021 7:07:57 GMT -6
Hi guys, What is the chance that the Cardinals game gets played tomorrow night? Have tickets and am worried that it will get cancelled and get rescheduled as a doubleheader Thursday and of course I can't go Thursday. Thoughts? 100% |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Apr 27, 2021 8:02:28 GMT -6
Hi guys, What is the chance that the Cardinals game gets played tomorrow night? Have tickets and am worried that it will get cancelled and get rescheduled as a doubleheader Thursday and of course I can't go Thursday. Thoughts? 100% That makes me happy. My kids would have been beside themselves if they got robbed of a chance to see Arenado. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Apr 27, 2021 8:11:39 GMT -6
That makes me happy. My kids would have been beside themselves if they got robbed of a chance to see Arenado. Not to burst your bubble but I think he means 100% chance it gets cancelled. I don’t see them playing tomorrow. |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Apr 27, 2021 8:16:57 GMT -6
That makes me happy. My kids would have been beside themselves if they got robbed of a chance to see Arenado. Not to burst your bubble but I think he means 100% chance it gets cancelled. I don’t see them playing tomorrow. Dang. |
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Post by Tilawn on Apr 27, 2021 10:21:53 GMT -6
That makes me happy. My kids would have been beside themselves if they got robbed of a chance to see Arenado. Not to burst your bubble but I think he means 100% chance it gets cancelled. I don’t see them playing tomorrow. Correct they won’t play Wednesday |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 27, 2021 10:23:38 GMT -6
Ya I’d say it’s very unlikely they play tomorrow’s game. Looks like a good ol soaker on hand with a few rounds of storms likely
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 27, 2021 11:40:53 GMT -6
So, we just had a cell with a meso in an environment that was about t46/td32
Colorado weather is jacked the hell up.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Apr 27, 2021 13:11:15 GMT -6
So, we just had a cell with a meso in an environment that was about t46/td32 Colorado weather is jacked the hell up. I lived on Peterson for 4 years, never have I ever seen so much pea-sized hail. Then the hail storm that destroyed so much of the base. |
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Post by REB on Apr 27, 2021 13:29:08 GMT -6
Herb garden is planted.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 27, 2021 13:48:20 GMT -6
Flash Flood Watch now up from 1PM tomorrow to 10AM Thursday Morning. Areas included are all south of I-44 in Missouri and I-70 in Illinois,
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 27, 2021 14:10:24 GMT -6
That is very narrow corridor with a flash flood watch. While I agree that is the zone most likely to see flash flooding based on an ensemble approach; there are still some significant enough differences between all the modeling. UKM/ECM suggest a little further north of that zone while GFS/GEM suggest further south. Maybe a situation where watches are expanded one way or the other once we get a little closer.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 27, 2021 14:21:50 GMT -6
NAM seems to have the best handle so far, I-44/I-70 and points south seems like the best guess for right now as its a blend between models with a slight leaning to the heavier amounts and thunderstorms likely to be more heavier south and starved for deep moisture and dynamics farther north which is more powered by frontogenesis rather then low level jets and other convective related dynamics. Interesting to note that there's bound to be a precipitation minimum between the 2 regions of best lift and dynamics where this area will only see a tenth to half inch of rain between the heavier bands of 1-2 in the northern third of the area, and the zone of 3-6" mainly south and east of St. Louis proper but would include all of Jefferson County, MO into Monroe and Saint Clair counties in the metro area.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 27, 2021 14:24:08 GMT -6
On a bizarre note, lots of worms are coming out from the soil and onto the pavement where they are drying and dying in the sun. Usually a tell tale sign that some heavy rains are coming within 12-24 hours.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 27, 2021 14:31:25 GMT -6
18Z NAM really honing in on I-44/I-70 as a maxima in QPF. Width of the band also narrowed significantly possibly indicating increased confidence in band placement.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 27, 2021 14:40:39 GMT -6
18z Hi res NAM really likes just south of 70 for max QPF  |
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 27, 2021 15:45:39 GMT -6
That is very narrow corridor with a flash flood watch. While I agree that is the zone most likely to see flash flooding based on an ensemble approach; there are still some significant enough differences between all the modeling. UKM/ECM suggest a little further north of that zone while GFS/GEM suggest further south. Maybe a situation where watches are expanded one way or the other once we get a little closer. A little brain dead on my part. Was thinking next tier of counties south of Farmington was St. Louis too but it's Paducah and they've filled in south of there so all looks reasonable now. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 27, 2021 16:07:45 GMT -6
Im keying in on a centerline from Rolla to Salem IL.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 27, 2021 18:56:12 GMT -6
Can anyone confirm a neighborhood legend for me? I bought a house on the west end of Belleville and our cul de sac is much bigger than the others in the neighborhood. The story goes that the house next to mine used to belong to a broadcast met who would fly in and out for storm coverage. Apparently it was quite the deal back in the day. Just suprised I never heard about it.
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Post by Tilawn on Apr 28, 2021 4:20:31 GMT -6
Well radar isn’t to impressive this morning....
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 28, 2021 4:38:46 GMT -6
wasn't really supposed to look impressive yet. Give a few hours
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 28, 2021 6:04:56 GMT -6
Chris, I noticed the NWS has the axis of heavy rain just south of the line you indicated yesterday (Rolla to Salem). I was wondering if you are still thinking the same?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 28, 2021 6:49:38 GMT -6
Well radar isn’t to impressive this morning.... It's lit up more than I expected...models weren't really showing much until this afternoon when it really ramps up. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Apr 28, 2021 8:33:59 GMT -6
Just some light rain so far here.
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