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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 2, 2021 21:05:54 GMT -6
CC drop right as its moving over Tupelo. Not good  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 2, 2021 21:28:01 GMT -6
Tomorrow evening looking more interesting around these parts per the WRF/HRRR and to a lesser extent the NAM. Some pretty impressive cells including discrete supercells showing up with the WRF showing a nasty one moving right through Belleville. Overall it looks like it comes in waves. Maybe some pop-up storms between 3-7PM, but then as we get to 9PM-1AM it gets the most intense with another wave around daybreak Tuesday morning and then a light steady rain Tuesday late morning into most of the afternoon. Southeast of I-44 and I-70 will be well worth watching for sure.
*Just love coming back from a long shift at work and seeing the models getting vicious looking in the near future. Still could very well bust of course, but it does seem like the odds are slowly tilting in favor of storms than not.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 3, 2021 3:42:55 GMT -6
SPC has included an enhanced area to today's outlook. Just south and east of STL.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 3, 2021 8:12:08 GMT -6
Got a question. My sister's graduation for her Masters is on Saturday, around 2-2:30 pm. How do the rain chances look? If it doesn't rain, family is allowed to go, if it does rain we have to stay at home. Thanks all you wonderful people!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 3, 2021 8:31:27 GMT -6
Uh oh  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 3, 2021 9:32:59 GMT -6
Looks like we're gonna get some strong destabilization this afternoon with plenty of clearing across MO...if the developing MCS over NW MO spits an outflow boundary our way later on, that should be enough to initiate storms. Short range models have these coming through the Metro around 5-7pm or so.
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Post by jeepers on May 3, 2021 9:57:49 GMT -6
Argh
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 3, 2021 10:19:05 GMT -6
Hearing SPC is going to slice off IL from enhanced risk on next update.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 3, 2021 10:30:39 GMT -6
Hearing SPC is going to slice off IL from enhanced risk on next update.
While models looked interesting last night it seems like the odds of things busting toward the nothing much happening side might be increasing.
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Post by Jeffmw on May 3, 2021 11:18:58 GMT -6
The Futurecast Simulation on the Weather Forecast on FOX2 didn't seem to impressed with the chances for tonight's event.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 3, 2021 11:30:56 GMT -6
Humidity/Dew point has been bumped up a notch today...
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 3, 2021 11:35:11 GMT -6
Got a question. My sister's graduation for her Masters is on Saturday, around 2-2:30 pm. How do the rain chances look? If it doesn't rain, family is allowed to go, if it does rain we have to stay at home. Thanks all you wonderful people! It's going to be tough. looks like a very wet weekend. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 3, 2021 11:38:49 GMT -6
Got a question. My sister's graduation for her Masters is on Saturday, around 2-2:30 pm. How do the rain chances look? If it doesn't rain, family is allowed to go, if it does rain we have to stay at home. Thanks all you wonderful people! It's going to be tough. looks like a very wet weekend. Dang. When she graduated with her Bachelors it rained and was cold (and I mean cold for may, I think it was in the 40s). All the grads had to wear ponchos because the president wouldn't/couldn't move it inside. Now if they move it inside no one is allowed to watch, I guess they can't space out the seats enough. Thanks Chris! Looking forward to being back home for a few days. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 3, 2021 11:39:20 GMT -6
The Futurecast Simulation on the Weather Forecast on FOX2 didn't seem to impressed with the chances for tonight's event. It wasn't. We have several options we can show...None of them were very energetic. I tried to pick the one that at least had some storms near the front after 5pm to allow me to hit the idea of spotty to scattered storms near the front. |
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Post by cozpregon on May 3, 2021 11:44:48 GMT -6
CU starting to agitated across central MO. SBCapes approaching 2000 and don't see much CIN. 40kt shear too.  |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 3, 2021 12:15:59 GMT -6
Little something popping up in central Mo now.
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Post by mosue56 on May 3, 2021 13:09:15 GMT -6
Will that CAP break?  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 3, 2021 13:11:59 GMT -6
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 3, 2021 13:12:16 GMT -6
MESO DISCO issued... watch 80% likely.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 3, 2021 13:12:31 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on May 3, 2021 13:18:31 GMT -6
920 is like a laser, he's on it, day and night. Like Batman
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 3, 2021 13:46:06 GMT -6
Watch issued.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 3, 2021 13:53:13 GMT -6
Severe warned storm near Quincy and some storms firing in Callaway County
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 3, 2021 14:05:49 GMT -6
Seems like there's probably some residual CINH that's keeping storms across E/central MO subdued so far. But that should continue to erode...
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 3, 2021 14:12:46 GMT -6
Seems like there's probably some residual CINH that's keeping storms across E/central MO subdued so far. But that should continue to erode... Was going to say that they started to develop then stopped. Coverage is not increasing from the half dozen or so cells in the group. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 3, 2021 14:28:04 GMT -6
Weak convergence along the front has not been able to overcome subsidence of the building 500mb heights above and remain weak cinh (as yet). Satellite over mid-mo that looked aggitated earlier looks squashed and supressed for now.
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Post by bdgwx on May 3, 2021 15:47:30 GMT -6
920 is like a laser, he's on it, day and night. Like Batman If it weren't for the fact that I've actually met him I'd would have said he was an AI bot that is continuously monitoring all weather data feeds and posts the instant something interesting happens with human-like commentary and computer-like speed. |
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Post by mosue56 on May 3, 2021 17:07:36 GMT -6
The cold front hasn’t rolled through yet! Maybe still some storms yet!
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 3, 2021 17:24:25 GMT -6
Little storm by rolla may get frisky. Had some showers just to my south but nothing ever happened
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 3, 2021 17:48:23 GMT -6
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