Chris's Corner - The Spring Cut-off Season has Arrived

I could see a tornado threat this weekend wherever that warm front sets up, I do not see much rain though maybe 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Really almost been a bit dry this spring

Nah I think the last few weeks have been plenty wet.

I mean, we got like a half foot of rain last month...

I do not like the look of the synoptic pattern this weekend one bit. Low anchored over the Eastern lakes another in the Pacific Northwest confluent flow over the Midwest. It is a recipe for a stalled front along I-70. The cumulative effect of the rain cooled air should make it tough for the front to lift north. I like the cooler more southerly position of the euro.

Completely agree...looks like a pretty solid washout Saturday afternoon into Sunday with multiple boundary running waves. Par for the course.. pretty sure 4 of the last 5 weekends have been rainy.

i dont always get rain here in MO,but when I do, its a dry rain.

I'll agree with this. I think maybe we have just become accustomed to the spring/summer deluges of the last decade. That hasn't really been the case this year, and makes me wonder if we are going to finally flip to a drier pattern for the summer. We've been on a pretty remarkably wet stretch. 

Got a bit breezy

I’ll tell ya what, just because I’m a nice guy I’ll take some of those palms from ya so they don’t blow over. I won’t even charge ya anything 😆.

You are correct... we have had a pretty "normal" spring and 2021 for that matter in terms of rainfall...on average...although it was been wet in spurts. The totals for the year are an insignificant amount above normal. My grass looks perfect... but my yard is still soupy in spots. I think what has made this spring feel wet to me is the number of cloudy, cool days. We have had trouble stringing together more than a couple of dry days with sunshine and mild temps... and that has made this feel like a gloomy spring to me.

As for the rain this weekend. I stand by my concerns that the effective boundary will be held more south than models/ensembles can capture. The upper flow just does not argue for a penetrating surge of warm air to the north IMO. But, modela are getting better so maybe this old forecaster is off his rocker.

Happy birthday Reb! Have a good one!

If should. yes.

Thanks 99.