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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 9, 2021 6:00:54 GMT -6
Lots of possible opportunities for forecast to implode the next few days. Westerlies retreat to the north, but the atmosphere does not get capped off... leaving a daily pool of enriched high CAPE air to serve as fuel for any isolated storms... if they form. If they dont... it will het gross out. If they do it will be a little less gross.
The GFS has a parade of convectively produced ripples that could be real or potentially over-baked. It is hard to tell... and with so much CAPE it is hard to find any time where I can safely say there is no chance for storms.
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Post by birddog on Aug 9, 2021 6:23:27 GMT -6
1.48" recorded here. Had a lightning strike at 5 am very close to the house. The kind that you hear a sizzle same time as the flash and then the boom! Went out awhile ago but couldn't find what got hit.
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Post by REB on Aug 9, 2021 8:55:07 GMT -6
.34" total for me. Glad we got the yard mowed yesterday.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 9, 2021 9:36:21 GMT -6
Looks like an MCS free for all the next couple days
I’m sure that won’t cause any forecasting headaches
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Post by mosue56 on Aug 9, 2021 9:46:40 GMT -6
We’ll leave the rest of the Bradford pear for the next wind then! Thanks, Chris
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Aug 9, 2021 11:56:25 GMT -6
Lots of possible opportunities for forecast to implode the next few days. Westerlies retreat to the north, but the atmosphere does not get capped off... leaving a daily pool of enriched high CAPE air to serve as fuel for any isolated storms... if they form. If they dont... it will het gross out. If they do it will be a little less gross. The GFS has a parade of convectively produced ripples that could be real or potentially over-baked. It is hard to tell... and with so much CAPE it is hard to find any time where I can safely say there is no chance for storms. St louis summer skies all around, if any storms pop expect them to spread and have plenty of fuel to work with. Where they don’t anticipate hot and humid St. Louis armpit weather, I mean oppressively humid weather. |
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Aug 9, 2021 13:49:42 GMT -6
Little bit of action boiling up for you southern guys and gals...
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Post by cardsnweather on Aug 9, 2021 15:00:36 GMT -6
Dew points should not be allowed to get into the 80’s°
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 9, 2021 15:13:23 GMT -6
It's pretty gross out.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 9, 2021 15:40:11 GMT -6
Heavy rain.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 9, 2021 15:54:05 GMT -6
Missed out on the rain at home and in Hillsboro at work. It’s definitely gross out.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 9, 2021 16:02:24 GMT -6
Looks like Chris has a nice welt on his eye from a fencing mishap. Looks painful.
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Post by REB on Aug 9, 2021 17:52:42 GMT -6
Looks like Chris has a nice welt on his eye from a fencing mishap. Looks painful. Looks nasty |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 9, 2021 18:11:28 GMT -6
Is gross even a harsh enough word for this? What else you got |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Aug 9, 2021 18:23:00 GMT -6
Is gross even a harsh enough word for this? What else you got Waiting for things to spontaneous combust? Disgusting. |
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Post by ElburnDave on Aug 9, 2021 18:43:44 GMT -6
My son and I caught this beauty near Maple Park, Illinois this afternoon.  |
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Post by ElburnDave on Aug 9, 2021 19:02:06 GMT -6
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 9, 2021 19:24:23 GMT -6
Tonight may be some of the most extreme humidity i have felt in st.charles county we missed the storm but got the moist outflow that is just thick home dp was 88 i know thats way too high however dp has to be 77 to 83 ever bit of it
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 9, 2021 20:02:37 GMT -6
Another 80*+ dewpoint day...delicious
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 10, 2021 5:52:34 GMT -6
The HRRR seems to be the only model initializing anything close to reality this AM so I am putting my eggs in that basket. Forecasting dangerous heat to be interrupted by a strong MCS during the evening rush. Main threat will be damaging wind and flash flooding.
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Post by birddog on Aug 10, 2021 5:59:01 GMT -6
Found the lighting strike, hit a tree next to my mom's house. Hit a 50 ft tall pine tree in the windbreak around the house. Interesting thing about it was that once it came down the tree, it traveled down the tree line and blew a large hole in the ground 2 trees to the west.
It did fry some of her appliances but fortunately no damage to the wiring. Shook my mom up a bit! It hit less than 30 ft from her bedroom window!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 10, 2021 8:01:56 GMT -6
Impressive outflow kicking off of the storms out near KC. Tough forecast today, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent complex come across the state this afternoon or develop along the boundary toward late morning.
It has gotten to the point of the year where I am ready for fall. This week is nasty. I missed the heat wave a couple weeks ago being in Tampa, so I'm not enjoying this one!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 10, 2021 8:44:59 GMT -6
Finally got my Excessive Heat Warning at last. Only took till Mid-August. Now if we can just get 100*F officially one or 2 times, I'll be ready to move on to the next season.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 10, 2021 9:09:51 GMT -6
Finally got my Excessive Heat Warning at last. Only took till Mid-August. Now if we can just get 100*F officially one or 2 times, I'll be ready to move on to the next season. I truly hope you enjoy it. Soak it up. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 10, 2021 9:41:29 GMT -6
Looks like we will have a tropical storm today...TD6 looks very healthy. Lots of questions about where it goes but I'd be on alert in the GOM if it can thread the needle.
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Post by scmhack on Aug 10, 2021 9:48:08 GMT -6
Finally got my Excessive Heat Warning at last. Only took till Mid-August. Now if we can just get 100*F officially one or 2 times, I'll be ready to move on to the next season. I truly hope you enjoy it. Soak it up. In the mill i am swimming in my uniform. Its already in the 130s+ on the 7 floor plus. He can soak this for me. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 10, 2021 9:48:10 GMT -6
The HRRR seems to be the only model initializing anything close to reality this AM so I am putting my eggs in that basket. Forecasting dangerous heat to be interrupted by a strong MCS during the evening rush. Main threat will be damaging wind and flash flooding. Both the HRRR and 5k WRF-ARW show a one-two punch of MCSs across the region this afternoon and evening...could be quite an active day. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 10, 2021 10:04:32 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 10, 2021 10:11:43 GMT -6
DCAPE numbers are pretty beefy out there
Anything that gets going and organized should pose a big wind threat
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 10, 2021 10:37:19 GMT -6
Finally got my Excessive Heat Warning at last. Only took till Mid-August. Now if we can just get 100*F officially one or 2 times, I'll be ready to move on to the next season. We already had 100+ once back in June. |
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