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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 22, 2021 21:54:04 GMT -6
Not sure about that CAP the 3km NAM has on this sounding, but that's a wicked hodo. 400+ SRH values That just screams QLCS nighttime tornadoes  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 22, 2021 22:01:00 GMT -6
I’m not familiar with cwasp...what is that?
I do want to throw a disclaimer that I've seen some pretty high CWASP events produce very little, so I feel like this parameter runs alittle "hot" when it comes to predicting tornadoes
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 22, 2021 22:28:30 GMT -6
Not sure about that CAP the 3km NAM has on this sounding, but that's a wicked hodo. 400+ SRH values That just screams QLCS nighttime tornadoes The low LCL is a concern |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Oct 23, 2021 8:41:17 GMT -6
Well I was gonna hop on the mower today but judging by the radar that’s not gonna happen.
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Post by GlendaleWxGuy on Oct 23, 2021 8:55:19 GMT -6
Driving home from Cedar Rapids, Iowa tomorrow. What time is this main line set to move through the area?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 23, 2021 8:58:08 GMT -6
I noticed yesterday's 12z EC run had a bullseye of 400+ SWEAT index across the region Sunday afternoon/evening. That's very high for this time of year and suggests a threat for significant severe and strong tornados. If we see clearing in the warm sector tomorrow...look out!
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 23, 2021 9:07:54 GMT -6
Driving home from Cedar Rapids, Iowa tomorrow. What time is this main line set to move through the area? Looks to be about 6pm-midnight. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 23, 2021 9:09:46 GMT -6
so..maybe deerkiller should have kept his customer appreciation day for tomorrow. Looks like it may get wet.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 23, 2021 9:41:20 GMT -6
Rain shield to the south is trying to build north but struggling. There are a few little showers bubbling across the metro currently ahead of the stratoform.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 23, 2021 9:59:43 GMT -6
Seems to be a difference in strength of capping tomorrow. Im not able to dig too deep on this right now... but the capping pre-front looks pretty strong on some of the CAMS... but not nearly as strong on others. That will be something to watch in realtime.
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Post by REB on Oct 23, 2021 10:08:40 GMT -6
Well I was gonna hop on the mower today but judging by the radar that’s not gonna happen. We just got done mowing here. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 23, 2021 10:19:20 GMT -6
Seems to be a difference in strength of capping tomorrow. Im not able to dig too deep on this right now... but the capping pre-front looks pretty strong on some of the CAMS... but not nearly as strong on others. That will be something to watch in realtime. If the cap holds off development until later in the day, you have to think that increases the tornado threat around here with more discrete supercells vs. a forced QLCS. Either way, it's a nasty setup. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 23, 2021 10:53:42 GMT -6
Tomorrow’s event deserves the headline, but starting to notice more consistency in cold being advertised in early November.
12z gfs is particularly interesting
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 23, 2021 11:02:01 GMT -6
Tomorrow’s event deserves the headline, but starting to notice more consistency in cold being advertised in early November. 12z gfs is particularly interesting That sounds about right. With the pattern being so amplified and blocky, it's only a matter of time before that sends a good chunk of cold air our way. I originally thought it would be late this month but early Nov is starting to look favorable. So far this early fall I like the pattern that has set up. If we can hold onto that we should cash in on some good storms and cold outbreaks. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 23, 2021 11:32:38 GMT -6
Agree with others, if we get sun tomorrow it could get real nasty.
Hard to believe this time last year Oklahoma was about to have an ice storm.
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 23, 2021 11:44:02 GMT -6
MOD risk possible per spc for tomorrow, hatched tornado encompasses all of st.louis area now.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 23, 2021 11:52:35 GMT -6
10% hatched tornado and 30% hatched wind Pretty crazy stuff for this time of year  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 23, 2021 12:05:15 GMT -6
I'm trying to think back to Spring of this yr. Did we ever have a moderate risk issued?
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Post by Jeffmw on Oct 23, 2021 12:42:37 GMT -6
Hope you guys don’t mind if I Hope this is a bust tomorrow.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 23, 2021 12:48:10 GMT -6
Seems to be a difference in strength of capping tomorrow. Im not able to dig too deep on this right now... but the capping pre-front looks pretty strong on some of the CAMS... but not nearly as strong on others. That will be something to watch in realtime. If the cap holds off development until later in the day, you have to think that increases the tornado threat around here with more discrete supercells vs. a forced QLCS. Either way, it's a nasty setup. The worst case scenario is that the cap is just strong enough to get things unstable but not so strong that isolated supercells start popping out in the free warm sector late afternoon. SPC is mentioning this possibility but I'm not seeing very strong signal in CAMs for that...yet. But if we build up 1000-1500j/kg SBCAPE the 200+ m2/s2 of 1km SRH and 40+kts of 6km shear would be enough to get things pretty serious even before a QLCS with embedded supercells/mesovortices sweeps through. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 23, 2021 13:11:36 GMT -6
As Coz said, the low LCLs and strong(40kts+) 0-1km shear is very concerning.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 23, 2021 14:45:14 GMT -6
If the cap holds off development until later in the day, you have to think that increases the tornado threat around here with more discrete supercells vs. a forced QLCS. Either way, it's a nasty setup. The worst case scenario is that the cap is just strong enough to get things unstable but not so strong that isolated supercells start popping out in the free warm sector late afternoon. SPC is mentioning this possibility but I'm not seeing very strong signal in CAMs for that...yet. But if we build up 1000-1500j/kg SBCAPE the 200+ m2/s2 of 1km SRH and 40+kts of 6km shear would be enough to get things pretty serious even before a QLCS with embedded supercells/mesovortices sweeps through. This is my concern as well. Possible "multi-wave" event with supercells first... then QLCS second. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Oct 23, 2021 17:12:41 GMT -6
Just got some fog roll in out of nowhere. Kinda Erie
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 23, 2021 17:14:42 GMT -6
warm front firing up to our sw
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Post by amstilost on Oct 23, 2021 19:24:02 GMT -6
We were setting up for a family get together this morning 8:30ish and it starts raining. I thought it was supposed to be this afternoon but that could have been last nights forecast. Anyway's, brought everything into the garage until 2ish when it stopped and dried up. Now I see tomorrow's forecast is partly sunny and temp bumped up to 79* and no mention of rain until Sunday night before 1am. Seems a lot of bouncing around. I hope nothing severe materializes but sure could use some rain.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 23, 2021 19:59:31 GMT -6
We were setting up for a family get together this morning 8:30ish and it starts raining. I thought it was supposed to be this afternoon but that could have been last nights forecast. Anyway's, brought everything into the garage until 2ish when it stopped and dried up. Now I see tomorrow's forecast is partly sunny and temp bumped up to 79* and no mention of rain until Sunday night before 1am. Seems a lot of bouncing around. I hope nothing severe materializes but sure could use some rain. Hmmm, not sure where you are hearing no rain or storms until late Sunday into Monday? Should start in western/Central Mo in the afternoon and evening tomorrow. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 23, 2021 20:01:20 GMT -6
If it were 2ish months from now...this could be a possible overrunning winter storm haha? If only. A nice slightly negative tilted trough at 500mb!  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 23, 2021 20:10:04 GMT -6
getting some loud booms here, nice.
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Post by REB on Oct 23, 2021 20:18:05 GMT -6
Congratulations on your Emmy win Chris!!!!!!!
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Post by amstilost on Oct 23, 2021 20:44:37 GMT -6
We were setting up for a family get together this morning 8:30ish and it starts raining. I thought it was supposed to be this afternoon but that could have been last nights forecast. Anyway's, brought everything into the garage until 2ish when it stopped and dried up. Now I see tomorrow's forecast is partly sunny and temp bumped up to 79* and no mention of rain until Sunday night before 1am. Seems a lot of bouncing around. I hope nothing severe materializes but sure could use some rain. Hmmm, not sure where you are hearing no rain or storms until late Sunday into Monday? Should start in western/Central Mo in the afternoon and evening tomorrow. My point forecast for 7 miles west of De Soto shows partly sunny and no rain for Sunday day. |
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