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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 20, 2021 14:08:38 GMT -6
interesting to see the NWS disco mention some of the tools they use and what for. I'd like to see more of this.
The warm front associated with the low lifts further north into the
region late Saturday into Sunday, when a strengthening LLJ oriented
perpendicular to the front will allow for broad, persistent
isentropic ascent. Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms
are likely areawide on Sunday, with particular focus along and north
of I-70 in both Missouri and Illinois. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast
Index (EFI) for QPF (measure of how extreme the ENS run is compared
to its model climatology) is notably higher today than in previous
days. It now indicates that 60-70% of its members exceed its
climatological normal for this time period, higher than previous
runs. Another tool used in tandem, the "shift-of-tails (SOT)," shows
the difference between the upper 10% of the ENS output and its
climatology. The SOT of 1, co-located with the higher EFI in the
northern/central CWA, indicates the possibility of very anomalous
rainfall totals. While this only utilizes the ENS members, other
ensemble guidance suggest similar results and the WPC Cluster
Analysis now suggests considerable agreement in the placement of the
heaviest rainfall. While magnitude is still variable among the
guidance, the anomalous integrated water vapor transport and
persistent isentropic lift could cause enough rain on Sunday to
break records at KCOU and KUIN, with a record at KSTL being an
outside (but plausible) possibility.
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Oct 20, 2021 14:24:15 GMT -6
Going to down some aspirin (or something stronger) to keep my head from spinning!
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 21, 2021 6:09:21 GMT -6
Im getting concerned about tornados sunday evem in the metro. Trends are looking more and more favorable
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Oct 21, 2021 7:12:23 GMT -6
I have a big customer appreciation barbecue planned Sunday for my store and the weather ain't looking too good... do you guys think it's going to be an all day rain Sunday???
Should I just I switch it to Saturday?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 21, 2021 7:41:58 GMT -6
I'd switch to Saturday for sure.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 21, 2021 7:47:33 GMT -6
I have a big customer appreciation barbecue planned Sunday for my store and the weather ain't looking too good... do you guys think it's going to be an all day rain Sunday??? Should I just I switch it to Saturday? Switch it! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 21, 2021 8:37:45 GMT -6
Im getting concerned about tornados sunday evem in the metro. Trends are looking more and more favorable There does appear to be a conditional threat along the warm front but a lot will depend on how much convective debris exists across the region. Something to watch... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 21, 2021 8:50:00 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 21, 2021 9:05:24 GMT -6
The middle of next week looks pretty ripe for a sizable outbreak across the S Plains and Midwest, IMO. |
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Oct 21, 2021 9:29:26 GMT -6
Event Has Been Change To Saturday October 23rd 11am-5pm Come on out if ya want to have some fall fun 🎃🏰🍻🍅🥧🌭🍋🍹 fb.me/e/1HBpCJzGGThanks 🙏 fellas |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 21, 2021 9:53:24 GMT -6
Im getting concerned about tornados sunday evem in the metro. Trends are looking more and more favorable There does appear to be a conditional threat along the warm front but a lot will depend on how much convective debris exists across the region. Something to watch... Seems like clouds & junk is always a mitigating factor around here... |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 21, 2021 10:59:16 GMT -6
Is Maytober going to turn into Junevember?
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 21, 2021 11:11:05 GMT -6
...followed by Augcember, Septanuary, then...
Crap, this Winter is over before it even started....
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 21, 2021 16:11:52 GMT -6
Amazing to watch a thin, broken line of weak showers around here yesterday turn into a tornado outbreak to the east in Ohio.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 21, 2021 16:25:56 GMT -6
Latest GFS kinematic environment would support severe weather on Sunday (including tornadoes possibly), but lack of good thermodynamics due to clouds, marginal lapse rates, and inhibition make it iffy. It does show convection breaking out in sw/mid-MO by late afternoon though. If things trend this direction with tonight's models there will almost certainly be a D3 slight risk probably extending all the way to Stl.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 22, 2021 5:04:30 GMT -6
The pre-frontal warm sector is expected to become moderately
unstable supported by the northward advection of low to mid 60s F
dewpoints. Low clouds may accompany this moisture return, but some
breaks should allow for pockets of diurnal heating of the boundary
layer with MLCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low clouds and a
modest cap may delay storm development until mid afternoon when
storms should initiate along the cold front from eastern KS into
eastern OK. Wind profiles with up to 50 kt effective bulk shear and
sizeable low-level hodographs will support supercells. Storms may
eventually evolve into lines during the evening as they continue
through the MS and TN Valley regions. All severe hazards are
possible including potential for significant severe weather.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Oct 22, 2021 5:21:35 GMT -6
Latest GFS kinematic environment would support severe weather on Sunday (including tornadoes possibly), but lack of good thermodynamics due to clouds, marginal lapse rates, and inhibition make it iffy. It does show convection breaking out in sw/mid-MO by late afternoon though. If things trend this direction with tonight's models there will almost certainly be a D3 slight risk probably extending all the way to Stl. [https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html And your Day 3 30% hatched severe outlook has been delivered |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 22, 2021 6:42:27 GMT -6
The setup Sunday is looking more favorable for severe wx across the region with the warm front attempting to lift through the area. The EC has a nasty looking triple point setup with the SLP tracking down 70. A lot still depends on the amount of convective debris though.
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Post by amstilost on Oct 22, 2021 7:51:35 GMT -6
If there is a chance of thunderstorms in the area on Sunday, why in the world is there not a 'Hazardous Weather Outlook' for the area?....seems a relatively easy way to alert the general public. I mean, it is 2-1/2 days away. What am I missing here?
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 22, 2021 8:22:02 GMT -6
if we can get enough clearing Sunday, it could get ugly
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 22, 2021 8:27:38 GMT -6
if we can get enough clearing Sunday, it could get ugly I agree with you 100%. That is one stout shortwave and plenty of shear. Not a terribly scientific observation here, but always follow the trends...the past week has featured a lot of tornadoes to our east, overperforming in many regards. Always follow the recent (and seasonal) trends when forecasting. It always amazes me how history repeats itself over a 2 to 3 week span in all modes of weather. Looks like Mr. Timmer will be heading in our direction. |
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 22, 2021 10:06:27 GMT -6
Can you guys tell me if the rain is kicking in tomorrow am?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 22, 2021 10:22:36 GMT -6
Can you guys tell me if the rain is kicking in tomorrow am? Probably not until later in the day when the warm front begins to lift northward. But I wouldn't rule out some lighter rain or drizzle like we had earlier today. |
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heinleid
Weather Weenie
Jefferson Hills, PA
Posts: 10
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Post by heinleid on Oct 22, 2021 11:23:04 GMT -6
Amazing to watch a thin, broken line of weak showers around here yesterday turn into a tornado outbreak to the east in Ohio. And I (a MO native, mind you) get to experience it. No damage (not even the electricity got knocked out), but still, highly unusual. Some statistics to back up the unusual pattern here in western PA (originally posted by Jeff Verszyla, WTAE met):  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 22, 2021 12:33:30 GMT -6
Pretty amazing stats for sure. Especially when you consider that the continental US has been in a tornado drought recently.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Oct 22, 2021 18:33:00 GMT -6
Oh I sure hope not.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 22, 2021 20:18:39 GMT -6
On the road for parents weekend at Xavier in Cincinnati...but will be heading home early Sunday to be in position. Several days ago I would have favored a slower northward retreat of the warm front.. I am especially concerned about areas along and south of I-70.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 22, 2021 20:43:59 GMT -6
Not sure where the NOT came from as that is 180 degrees off what I was trying to type. Too much multi-tasking I guess...I deleted the references bqck to that to avoid confusion... thanks for pointing it out so I could correct it!!!!
What that was SUPPOSED to say... and now does say... is that I am especially concerned about areas south of I-70.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 22, 2021 21:39:53 GMT -6
CWASP values of 85 Sunday evening are uh....alittle high  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 22, 2021 21:51:04 GMT -6
I’m not familiar with cwasp...what is that?
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