Welcome to October!

The "day" part of the forecast probably ends at 5pm or so. The storm threat there may hold off until a little after that... hence the forecast you are seeing.

Thanks Chris, Congrats again on the Emmy. I am getting several training thundershowers here. Love it. Also, check out the Canary Island webcam of the volcano. Seems to get real 'lively' at night. Mesmerizing.

Fountains

Sun is poking out already. And it feels soupy, 62 dp 60 in st.peters we are getting primed

Was clear for the last hour, but a layer of clouds just came in. It looks thick too.

Nice stiff breeze out of the west. It's cool though.

Excerpt from the official NWS Pittsburgh summary of the outbreak on 10/21:


Boggles my mind, even being from MO...

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
915 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 914 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Key Messages...

1) Large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are all very
real hazards today as the setup for severe weather is the most
potent our area has seen in a few years.

2) The threat for flash flooding in northeast Missouri and west-
central Illinois is beginning to waning.

Technical Discussion...

Latest regional surface analysis depicts a deepening low centered
across central Kansas, with a warm front draped over central
Missouri and south-central Illinois. Training thunderstorms along
the boundary that brought up to 4.5" of rain in some spots are
dissipating and lifting north as the LLJ veers and the warm front
advances. Despite the impressive rainfall totals (KUIN is now well-
beyond its record for the entire day), no flooding impacts are
reported as of yet and rivers did not reach flood stage.

All eyes now turn to the impending threat for widespread severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the entire CWA.
Without re-hashing the AFD below, the one major source of
uncertainty is the extent to which cloud cover from this morning`s
convection would effect surface-based CI this afternoon. The
aforementioned surface analysis depicts advancing 60F+ dewpoints
encroaching the St. Louis area and 65F+ values in eastern Kansas.
Ahead of a cold front in western Oklahoma, a pre- frontal trough
that has been depicted in the guidance as an initial source of lift
and low-level shear is now evident. Satellite imagery depicts an
area of fog/low stratus across southeast/east-central Missouri, with
mostly clear skies in southwest Missouri. Gravity waves can also be
observed in the low stratus on visible imagery, suggesting a stable
layer very near the surface. This stratus will likely lift and
dissipate as the surface warms this morning. While the clearing
skies would allow for proper insolation to destabilize the boundary
layer, ongoing convection in western Missouri is causing more cloud
redevelopment. Concern is growing that our instability will wind up
being sufficient for surface- based convection given the pre-frontal
forcing holds together. Storms will then organize in a highly-
favorable kinematic environment (again, see below).

It is becoming more apparent that today will be one of the more
active weather days this area has seen in some time, at least in
terms of severe thunderstorms. A change of note in the guidance is
that a few finer-resolution models, CAMs, and the SPC Mesoscale
Analysis now depict stronger mid-level lapse rates (7-8C/km) in
central/north- central Missouri. If supercells can organize
coincident with these lapse rates, very large hail (2"+ in
diameter) cannot be ruled out in some storms. That hazard would
accompany the elevated risk for strong tornadoes and 70-80mph
straight-line winds in the same general area.

Sunny, warm, humid, and super windy this morning.

Unfortunately we decided to close the windows and pop the ac back on. Too sticky out.

So is today the day we may see one of those PDS tornado watches?

Could the cloud cover help keep the severity of these storms down?

Nothing that's not already been advertised come from the conference call, other than overall confidence is increasing as to widespread severe weather today and an increase in Significant hail is more likely from central MO into NE MO. Did inquire if they expected an upgrade to moderate in the next package by the SPC, and they stated they were on the fence but do not expect it. They said its close, and should be treated as such, but likely will not get the moderate tag.

Thanks for those updates, Todd.

a bit late with the 1130 update on the spc