bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Oct 31, 2021 15:44:01 GMT -6
Any toughts on how winter may go. I head Joe B say thinks december will be very cold.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 31, 2021 16:24:05 GMT -6
Just eyeballing the sounding 920 posted it looks like there may be some CSI present around the DGZ with some speed shear and steep-ish lapse rates...that's awfully close to a heavy burst of wet snow.
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Post by amstilost on Nov 1, 2021 9:58:53 GMT -6
Just a quick observation with the latest (0z) runs of the GFS and Euro models. Several days ago (last week?) after the big "atmospheric rivers" and "bomb cyclones" formed and moved through the west, model forecasts seemed to back off on anymore rain for up and down the west coast. I just noticed now that quite a bit more rain and storms are modeled to come through there. It seems in response to those model runs we would 'warm up' if that happens. I believe that is 'usually' the case when storms hit the west coast this area tends to be under a ridge. I was paying a little attention to this because of the huge rise in water level at Oroville Dam (up 30' since 10/22).
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 1, 2021 10:34:48 GMT -6
Still looks possible a few wet flakes make it to the surface this evening. The warm layer is confined to the lowest ~2500ft which should only be a few degrees above freezing. We’re going to need our good friend dynamic cooling and some heavier bands of precep to make to work.
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 1, 2021 11:17:33 GMT -6
Not tech weather but things are slow with weather so thought I would ask how many Christmas Commercials have you all saw today so far.
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Post by bear1 on Nov 1, 2021 11:29:30 GMT -6
Not tech weather but things are slow with weather so thought I would ask how many Christmas Commercials have you all saw today so far. |
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Post by amstilost on Nov 1, 2021 11:34:37 GMT -6
No TV so I haven't seen any, but I did just see what looked like a cigarette commercial here.  |
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Post by bear1 on Nov 1, 2021 11:53:00 GMT -6
No TV so I haven't seen any, but I did just see what looked like a cigarette commercial here.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 1, 2021 12:39:19 GMT -6
Yeah it's amazing how Christmas ads happen the same time every year. Weird.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 1, 2021 12:59:24 GMT -6
Nov started and it’s sad that Thanksgiving isn’t its own holiday anymore. Enjoy what’s left of fall because once Thanksgiving is done, it’ll really be Christmastime and possibly winter!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 1, 2021 14:19:35 GMT -6
Nov started and it’s sad that Thanksgiving isn’t its own holiday anymore. Enjoy what’s left of fall because once Thanksgiving is done, it’ll really be Christmastime and possibly winter! Going to be a bit better this year since Walmart and Target are staying closed on Thanksgiving Day this year. Haven't heard whether Best Buy is following suit. Though it will likely make Black Friday even more mental this year, providing more opportunities to show the spirit of the season with fisticuffs.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Nov 1, 2021 15:00:12 GMT -6
Let's hold this weekend's forecast. Perfect weather for a fall wedding. That's right after 6 years and 2 kids, I'm getting married!
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 1, 2021 15:08:39 GMT -6
Congrats!!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 1, 2021 17:07:21 GMT -6
Let's hold this weekend's forecast. Perfect weather for a fall wedding. That's right after 6 years and 2 kids, I'm getting married! Holy Cow! Congrats! |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 1, 2021 21:05:24 GMT -6
Let's hold this weekend's forecast. Perfect weather for a fall wedding. That's right after 6 years and 2 kids, I'm getting married!  |
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Post by amstilost on Nov 2, 2021 5:04:52 GMT -6
Hmmm, I see how lame this winter is going to be for me.....I can't even make it into a Freeze Watch. Did central Mo already have a freeze event? |
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 2, 2021 5:41:55 GMT -6
We technically could of used a freezewarning down to 70 this morning sky has cleared and dropped to 31 this morning
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 2, 2021 6:19:43 GMT -6
Frozen bed cover on the truck in st.peters. bottomed out at 30.  |
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Post by REB on Nov 2, 2021 7:42:12 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Chris! Thanks for all you do for us!
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 2, 2021 8:17:39 GMT -6
Hmmm, I see how lame this winter is going to be for me.....I can't even make it into a Freeze Watch. Did central Mo already have a freeze event? I have had frost a few times already but not a real “freeze” yet. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 2, 2021 8:29:33 GMT -6
Yeah I was wondering about the freeze watch to the south and not here. Seems odd..forecast temps are as cold or colder here.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 2, 2021 8:34:22 GMT -6
Almost wondering if the area in between is where tonights freeze warning may be issued.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 2, 2021 9:04:00 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Chris! Thanks for all you do for us! Thanks Reb! |
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 2, 2021 9:07:08 GMT -6
Yeah ice on my car this morning in Northern Wildwood.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 2, 2021 10:29:43 GMT -6
Frozen bed cover on the truck in st.peters. bottomed out at 30. Coldest I saw was 38 in my little corner of St. Peters |
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 2, 2021 10:51:30 GMT -6
I tend to seriously be about 5 to 7 degrees colder at times. I try to tell you guys i am not fibbing thats why i am sending pics to prove that last nights rain froze on the cars in my yard lol
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 2, 2021 11:30:14 GMT -6
I tend to seriously be about 5 to 7 degrees colder at times. I try to tell you guys i am not fibbing thats why i am sending pics to prove that last nights rain froze on the cars in my yard lol Hood temp does not have to equal air temp. It's quickly plausible that ice could freeze on the top of your car with an air temperature several degrees above freezing underradiational cooling conditions. Same principle with frost formation when the air temperature is above freezing as well. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 2, 2021 11:30:19 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Chris!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 2, 2021 11:57:49 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Chris
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 2, 2021 11:59:28 GMT -6
Why the freeze watch and warning to the south? What about the Metro area?? Did we all go below last night?
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