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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 19, 2021 10:47:19 GMT -6
GFS is beautiful next weekend with 2 days of soaking rain and temps of 35-40. Cant wait. lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 19, 2021 10:52:08 GMT -6
If nothing else, we really do need the rain.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 19, 2021 11:35:27 GMT -6
GFS looks pretty stingy with the cold air given the upper flow orientation...the 00z GEM was much colder with secondary development next Friday.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 19, 2021 17:53:04 GMT -6
I have the STL hourly observations going back to the 40s. I went through them a while ago I could not find any definitive evidence of actual blizzard conditions at STL in the data.
There was a blizzard climatology paper from many many years ago that I believe suggested a blizzard here would be roughly a 1-50 to 1-100 year event.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Nov 19, 2021 20:12:18 GMT -6
I'll have to go back and look at the observations... but at least at the airport I don't think it qualified... but it was REALLY close. I know we had a warning posted mid storm is what made me remember that. I know I’m south county was that criteria for sure. But could easily see how air port wasn’t. Also just saw the piece on Facebook, well done sir. |
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Post by amstilost on Nov 20, 2021 1:02:06 GMT -6
According to 0z runs of the Euro and GFS tonight there is not much of anything weather-wise on the East Coast to disrupt holiday travelers. Why is there news stories saying there could be major travel disruptions?
This headline from the 17th...Thanksgiving Travel Could Be Pummeled by Monster Storm on East Coast. WTH
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 20, 2021 4:08:59 GMT -6
According to 0z runs of the Euro and GFS tonight there is not much of anything weather-wise on the East Coast to disrupt holiday travelers. Why is there news stories saying there could be major travel disruptions? This headline from the 17th...Thanksgiving Travel Could Be Pummeled by Monster Storm on East Coast. WTH Because there was a possibility of a big storm but it has now been pushed off the coast I believe. |
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 20, 2021 7:02:52 GMT -6
Yep weather changes, it can be predicted and forecasted but models change! Wait a minute, a day, a week…..
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Post by amstilost on Nov 20, 2021 7:58:52 GMT -6
For some reason it didn't register that the 17th WAS 3 days ago. Retirement has its perks.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 20, 2021 11:07:06 GMT -6
Yep weather changes, it can be predicted and forecasted but models change! Wait a minute, a day, a week….. One of many good reasons NOT to headline a fantasy storm 7+ days in the future. But that is news managers at a national level making non-science decisions about scientific events in the interest of generating clicks and revenue. |
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 20, 2021 11:14:35 GMT -6
Absolutely, Chris!
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 20, 2021 11:50:30 GMT -6
Looks like the colder stormier pattern Thanksgiving week has kind of gone up the turkey's butt with the stuffing.
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Post by landscaper on Nov 20, 2021 15:13:07 GMT -6
It looks fairly dry with mostly at or above normal temps. A couple chances of “cold front” type rain but no real low pressure systems. Definitely no real snow storms in sight through the next 15 days. Hopefully the pattern will change by mid December or the holidays
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 20, 2021 17:04:43 GMT -6
Honestly we may not want much snow this winter with the way modot has no plow drivers this year, it would just be a real pain when it snows.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 20, 2021 17:22:20 GMT -6
lol
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 20, 2021 18:57:20 GMT -6
No lol its a legit concern
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Nov 21, 2021 7:48:27 GMT -6
No lol its a legit concern Guessing Al more than “no” drivers though. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 21, 2021 9:11:43 GMT -6
"Roads? Where we're going, we don't need roads"
Let it snow!
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 21, 2021 9:32:39 GMT -6
Well roads are a huge issue, my new job is at lake of the ozarks in EMS and i work 6 48 house shifts a month so I am getting the cabin ready if needed if I get stuck down there cause roads are an issue.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 21, 2021 10:44:22 GMT -6
Roads are always an issue down there...I hope you have a 4WD vehicle.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 21, 2021 11:31:48 GMT -6
GFS has a nice snowstorm on my birthday Dec 6. lol. I'll take it.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 21, 2021 13:34:01 GMT -6
GFS has a nice snowstorm on my birthday Dec 6. lol. I'll take it. My birthday is a few days before on the 3rd. Some birthday snow would be a nice present. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 21, 2021 18:09:56 GMT -6
GFS has a nice snowstorm on my birthday Dec 6. lol. I'll take it. I think you would take the 18z gfs 😂 |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 21, 2021 18:29:44 GMT -6
few hours late but yeah that'd be nice lol
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 21, 2021 21:25:32 GMT -6
Wow the pattern straight blows
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 21, 2021 21:58:46 GMT -6
Found the cold
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 22, 2021 7:25:24 GMT -6
Keep an Eye on Thanksgiving Morning, could at the very least see some flakes fly.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 22, 2021 8:48:04 GMT -6
about as la nina as a pattern gets...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 22, 2021 9:18:34 GMT -6
about as la nina as a pattern gets... Yeah... there can be different flavors of La Nina... but this one seems to be starting pretty much right out of the text book |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 22, 2021 9:47:35 GMT -6
There's definitely some mixed signals heading into this winter as Dave mentioned in his forecast. The Easterly QBO and La Nina typically favors blocking and frequent cold intrusions but the SST pattern in the Pacific isn't good for our region with a pool of cold SSTs in the Gulf of Alaska and warm SSTs in the W/central basin. That seems like a pattern that favors a -NAO opposed to a -EPO which probably puts the E US and the Lakes region in a better spot for storms. It really seems like clippers are going to be our best bet for snowfall.
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