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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 22, 2021 10:27:06 GMT -6
Some others to go with these  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 22, 2021 12:24:50 GMT -6
Friv pretty well said it all...the pattern plain sucks and looks to continue into early December. That persistent low in the Gulf of AK has got to go.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 22, 2021 12:57:09 GMT -6
What's going to suck is, we are finally going to have a cold Dec according to some. But possibly be pretty dry. So it will feel like Winter but not look like it.
Here to hoping we get a good connection of cold and moisture next month. 🤞
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 22, 2021 12:58:45 GMT -6
Friv pretty well said it all...the pattern plain sucks and looks to continue into early December. That persistent low in the Gulf of AK has got to go. Yup. Until it leaves, we will be lucky to get in on a modified clipper. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 22, 2021 13:04:10 GMT -6
What's going to suck is, we are finally going to have a cold Dec according to some. But possibly be pretty dry. So it will feel like Winter but not look like it. Here to hoping we get a good connection of cold and moisture next month. 🤞 A lot is gonna have to change to get any sustained cold in the lower 48...otherwise, it's just going to be transient shots of seasonable cold and mostly mild and dry. The pattern seemed pretty encouraging last month, but turned on a dime the past few weeks and has seemingly locked in for now. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 22, 2021 13:27:41 GMT -6
I think Dave's winter forecast is in serious jeopardy right off the bat for early December where he was calling for it to be cold.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 22, 2021 15:19:34 GMT -6
That clipper coming through Sat/Sun may need to be watched, but I'd bet on it tracking too far N for any frozen P-type threat here. That's about the only item of interest besides for the front on Thanksgiving which looks to be a classic rain-to-cold scenario.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 23, 2021 2:22:15 GMT -6
Well, I think we can all go into hibernation until AT LEAST mid December. Nothing happening, nothing probably gonna happen, for at least a few weeks.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 23, 2021 6:43:19 GMT -6
So dang beautiful!  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 23, 2021 7:40:49 GMT -6
So dang beautiful! The wife was taking pictures of it as well. Really striking this morning. |
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Post by amstilost on Nov 23, 2021 7:46:18 GMT -6
So I will assume..."Red sky in morning, sailor take warning" did not apply to La Nina years.  |
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 23, 2021 9:47:26 GMT -6
Haven’t looked at anything lately but my gut (and it’s a BIG one) feeling is not a good winter for snow this season.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 23, 2021 10:22:55 GMT -6
I know there always can be acceptions, however do you guys have an odd feeling this winter is setting up like the 11/12 winter when we went into the drougth and summer from down under in 2012 and it was almost like not a winter at all overall
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 23, 2021 12:15:57 GMT -6
No, but I do have an educated guess for 2022- that you will be the first to record temps below zero and the first above 100.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 23, 2021 14:26:14 GMT -6
Please chill, i have been much better. Geeze. I have better equipment now, and all have been within range for months.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Nov 23, 2021 17:31:07 GMT -6
I need a mild winter. We are having a house built in O'Fallon IL, and need it done by the time the hubs retires from the Air Force April 1st!
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 24, 2021 6:48:48 GMT -6
WOW... just wow!  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 24, 2021 9:53:05 GMT -6
Current forecast:  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 24, 2021 12:13:10 GMT -6
It's gonna be a struggle watching storm after storm develop in the N stream and scoot off across the Lakes and New England. That ridge off Baja/Cali has got to go. It's too early to write off winter, but this pattern that has emerged is concerning.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 24, 2021 12:27:32 GMT -6
It's gonna be a struggle watching storm after storm develop in the N stream and scoot off across the Lakes and New England. That ridge off Baja/Cali has got to go. It's too early to write off winter, but this pattern that has emerged is concerning. Not seeing much hope in the extended range guidance. We could be waiting quite awhile for a solid winter pattern |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 24, 2021 12:55:06 GMT -6
If the 12z euro is close, we could see a nice record high temp pattern set up later next week. so that's awesome. And I mean it's toasty all the way to the Canadian border over the entire mid part of the country. Nice June pattern.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 24, 2021 12:59:56 GMT -6
If the 12z euro is close, we could see a nice record high temp pattern set up later next week. so that's awesome. And I mean it's toasty all the way to the Canadian border over the entire mid part of the country. Nice June pattern. Drops the cold and potential winter storm by D10 though. Stretched PV potentially around the 5th-15th so we could get some winter for a couple week stretch |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 24, 2021 13:06:26 GMT -6
If the 12z euro is close, we could see a nice record high temp pattern set up later next week. so that's awesome. And I mean it's toasty all the way to the Canadian border over the entire mid part of the country. Nice June pattern. Drops the cold and potential winter storm by D10 though. Stretched PV potentially around the 5th-15th so we could get some winter for a couple week stretch highly doubtful at this point. Get it within 72 hours then maybe I'll believe it. Just cold air is like gold at this point. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 24, 2021 17:03:08 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 24, 2021 20:57:43 GMT -6
Congrats to the NE early next week...looks like a pretty solid nor'easter is brewing. That could be a doozy if the Gulf low that the Euro shows phases in. Classic setup with the St. James Low developing and the -NAO.
Longer range models look marginally better towards the first week of December with maybe a shot of modified arctic air, but no storm chances from the look of things right now, just colder.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 24, 2021 21:05:32 GMT -6
If the 12z euro is close, we could see a nice record high temp pattern set up later next week. so that's awesome. And I mean it's toasty all the way to the Canadian border over the entire mid part of the country. Nice June pattern. Drops the cold and potential winter storm by D10 though. Stretched PV potentially around the 5th-15th so we could get some winter for a couple week stretch The trop PV does look like it gets kinda "shaken up" towards D10...we'll have to see if that holds up. Nothing really going on in the strat currently except maybe a minor burst of westerlies the next few days which may be tied to the slight PV disruption in the trop that models show. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 24, 2021 22:36:21 GMT -6
Shame we couldn’t get the warm temperatures tomorrow instead of today.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 25, 2021 8:30:18 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!! I am thankful for this board ….. let’s hope winter shows up sooner rather than later
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 25, 2021 9:00:15 GMT -6
happy thanksgiving weather peeps!
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Post by amstilost on Nov 25, 2021 9:29:08 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving everyone,
Concrete all dry here. Looking at radar before I went to bed and thought we had a 'good' rain heading this way. Storm total looks around 3/8" on the NWS site. I had to go back and look at a 10hr radar loop to believe we got any rain. Loop says we did.
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