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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 6, 2021 14:52:48 GMT -6
18z NAM shows the jet coupling that models had hinted at earlier...explains the stronger Fgen response. It'll be interesting to see if short-term models pick up on that tonight.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 6, 2021 14:54:14 GMT -6
NAM 3km would in fact a support a brief… very brief… period of snow showers and flurries. Latest sounding saturates the column just in time for a little mood snow. Seems to be some pretty big difference on timing though tomorrow afternoon / evening.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 6, 2021 15:25:05 GMT -6
Not sure the residence time and anyone spot will be enough to produce 2"… but I could see a 1/2 inch to an inch... Especially where it hits past 3 PM with the lower sun angle being a key factor to getting it to stick.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 6, 2021 15:46:34 GMT -6
Maybe it's good we are having the very mild early. As brtn and a few others have mentioned you would think at some point we would see a " snap " of the pattern if even for a brief period. I don't know if 1998-99 ( strong la nina, IIRC ) is a good analog, but I remember it being very mild like this almost all the way till new year's. We all know what happened January 1, 1999.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 6, 2021 19:54:42 GMT -6
Crazy week ahead.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 6, 2021 19:59:42 GMT -6
this 70 degree crap needs to end'
Thank you guys for the birthday wishes.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 6, 2021 20:09:15 GMT -6
no mo nam snow
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 6, 2021 20:14:51 GMT -6
No snow tomorrow guys, i was not even giving it a chance. Air is too dry. A flurry maybe. But i think we are waiting until the turn of the year for winter to maybe glance at us.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 6, 2021 20:27:55 GMT -6
Happy Birthday s-man
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 7, 2021 8:47:48 GMT -6
lots of virga snow this morning
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 7, 2021 9:04:20 GMT -6
Nice band of ascent/cooling cloud tops across MO but nothing making it to the surface so far.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 7, 2021 10:19:19 GMT -6
Donut hole trying to fill in a bit with the last few radar frames. Looks like there's a small disturbance crossing KS that is increasing the lift across the region. Might be enough to break through the dry layer.
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 7, 2021 10:21:21 GMT -6
Too much dry air! Radar shows white over Festus and I see nothing!
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 7, 2021 10:26:49 GMT -6
lots of virga snow this morning It's falling on our steak dinner. Everything looked great until 920 had to throw that dry air in there. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 7, 2021 10:40:32 GMT -6
Anyone else having a problem with RadarScope not updating the radar data this morning?
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 7, 2021 10:46:41 GMT -6
Anyone else having a problem with RadarScope not updating the radar data this morning? Yes for about the last hour. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 7, 2021 11:11:29 GMT -6
Apparently radar scope uses Amazon web services which is currently experiencing a huge outage.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 7, 2021 11:35:21 GMT -6
This is the result of a project I've been playing with off and on for a while. It's a quick and dirty calculator that I hope will help characterize the potential impact of an event more consistently. It has a much heavier weight on the timing of the snow and the snowfall/precipitation rate at key times of the day instead of focusing on the forecast snowfall amount. We all know the two do not necessarily go hand-in-hand. This is the output of it for today's Clipper. There are still some known issues... but I've got it to the point where it seems to work pretty well. Based on the weighting and calculations for today... the calculator scores today as an 8 on a scale of 0 to 35 (actually more than 35) THat rates it "Little if Any Impact" I used flurries for today's event. Had I gone with light snow instead... that would have pushed it to "Minor" with a score of 12. I used the nudger of "warm ground" to limit the impact even more today. If the ground were frozen, that would have put this solidly in "Minor" It wont work all the time... but it does help characterize an event I think.  |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 7, 2021 11:43:54 GMT -6
I like it….. it answers all the questions about an event
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Post by brendanwiese550KTRS on Dec 7, 2021 11:48:01 GMT -6
I know we are focused on today's "storm." But Reed Timmer is talking about a tornado outbreak on Fri/Fri night. We wouldn't be in the bullseye per se, but would certainly be in the mix. Anybody else getting a sense of this?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 7, 2021 11:55:20 GMT -6
I know we are focused on today's "storm." But Reed Timmer is talking about a tornado outbreak on Fri/Fri night. We wouldn't be in the bullseye per se, but would certainly be in the mix. Anybody else getting a sense of this? The data I’ve seen keeps the severe threat south and east of here. Still close enough to keep an eye on but nothing that looks overly concerning atm |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 7, 2021 11:55:47 GMT -6
steak dinners if we DON'T break at least 1 record hi between this Friday and next Friday.
I like it chris..makes sense.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 7, 2021 12:03:46 GMT -6
I know we are focused on today's "storm." But Reed Timmer is talking about a tornado outbreak on Fri/Fri night. We wouldn't be in the bullseye per se, but would certainly be in the mix. Anybody else getting a sense of this? The data I’ve seen keeps the severe threat south and east of here. Still close enough to keep an eye on but nothing that looks overly concerning atm Conceptually, you would expect a forced line of low-topped convection with that setup...but there may not be much low-level moisture/instability available this far north. |
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Post by mchafin on Dec 7, 2021 12:04:43 GMT -6
I like it….. it answers all the questions about an event EXCEPT: How much will it snow in my backyard. On a somewhat related note....I think the GFS did a pretty good job modeling virga. So let's call that a win. |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 7, 2021 12:08:05 GMT -6
I know we are focused on today's "storm." But Reed Timmer is talking about a tornado outbreak on Fri/Fri night. We wouldn't be in the bullseye per se, but would certainly be in the mix. Anybody else getting a sense of this? The data I’ve seen keeps the severe threat south and east of here. Still close enough to keep an eye on but nothing that looks overly concerning atm Yep... as of now- looks more likely from Cape Garage Door and up the Ohio River a bit. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 7, 2021 12:12:46 GMT -6
Looks like ceilings have dropped to around 1-2kft under the band...so close!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 7, 2021 12:16:21 GMT -6
Going to need a paramotor or hot air balloon if you want to see snow today!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 7, 2021 12:29:34 GMT -6
Going to need a paramotor or hot air balloon if you want to see snow today! Starting to see a few reports of flakes breaking through now. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 7, 2021 12:29:47 GMT -6
Hey...hey....I have flurries reaching the ground! Yay.
Coz, where is exactly is cape garage door? Lmao that is a funny correct.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 7, 2021 12:34:18 GMT -6
So far flurries being reported in St. James, Owensville, Beaufort (ligh snow here), and Union.
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