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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 9:40:22 GMT -6
12-24 hours earlier this would be one helluva birthday storm, but looks to be at it's climax for my mom's on the 3rd.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 9:46:08 GMT -6
My birthday is on the 2nd , there have been so many ground hog day storms over the last 50 years. I used to get so mad when it snowed on my birthday in the 70’s and 80’s and school was Canceled and I didn’t get to have a cup cake party! Now, I will likely spend 48 -60 hours in a truck managing snow removal operations.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2022 9:53:12 GMT -6
We need to have a cupcake party on Wednesday for Landscaper everyone!  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 9:56:02 GMT -6
Please Do! I will celebrate next weekend, hopefully this is one of those storms Contractor’s can actually make some good money
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 29, 2022 10:08:40 GMT -6
12z gfs is a massive storm with the final kicker wave I’ve been waiting for.
Kaboom
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Post by thechaser on Jan 29, 2022 10:09:05 GMT -6
12z GFS is fun, oof
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2022 10:10:02 GMT -6
that is a crapload of sleet lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2022 10:12:07 GMT -6
2.5" or thereabouts of qpf...about .5-.75 is plain rain
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 29, 2022 10:12:57 GMT -6
Where do you find the list of analog storms?
Curious if the 2006 ice storm or GHD storm show up high on the list.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 10:13:11 GMT -6
That’s a hellavu winter storm on the GFS
Looks like inches of sleet in the metro
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2022 10:15:59 GMT -6
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 10:16:36 GMT -6
Beast mode , this is the type of storm who ever stays freezing rain for a long time needs to worry about power outages with the fairly high winds and bitter cold . Definitely something to be prepared for and aware . Currently it looks southeast of the metro but that could change. Also there could be some nice drift if get get several inches of snow on the back side, that should be powdery stuff with enough wind for blowing and drifting
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 29, 2022 10:18:33 GMT -6
That 12Z GFS run is insane. The snow depth product is unreal. Literally...I'm questioning how reliable it is. I mean theoretically it should be better than Kuchera and Cobb, but I wonder how well it does with sleet.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 29, 2022 10:18:54 GMT -6
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 10:18:57 GMT -6
Honestly it kind of has the look of the November 30 -December 1st storm in 2006 . Not exactly but similar features, big arctic front and several waves of frozen precipitation with the areas north and west heavy snow and metro mix with more freezing rain southeast sections
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 10:19:28 GMT -6
The FRAM ice chart is approaching 1” accretion in parts of the southern counties on that GFS run
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 29, 2022 10:21:23 GMT -6
The Cape Girardeau area gets 1.75" of ZR with 1.10" of FRAM.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 10:22:24 GMT -6
I remember that storm vividly, it changed over 6-8 hours sooner, Chris was broadcasting from the truck stop in foristell, moderate sleet came in way ahead of schedule covered the roads in about 10 minutes and it went down hill from there
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 10:22:58 GMT -6
What is FRAM mean?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 10:23:43 GMT -6
That 12Z GFS run is insane. The snow depth product is unreal. Literally...I'm questioning how reliable it is. I mean theoretically it should be better than Kuchera and Cobb, but I wonder how well it does with sleet. This definitely includes sleet but ya….wow  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 29, 2022 10:24:17 GMT -6
Freezing Rain Accumulation Model. It is an ice accumulation/accretion amount. It will generally be less than the actual freezing rain amount.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2022 10:24:23 GMT -6
freezing rain accumulation...something? lol
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 10:27:06 GMT -6
Thanks, Gem looks to be a beast on the black and white charts looks colder and more snow than ice , I think
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 29, 2022 10:28:42 GMT -6
That 12Z GFS run is insane. The snow depth product is unreal. Literally...I'm questioning how reliable it is. I mean theoretically it should be better than Kuchera and Cobb, but I wonder how well it does with sleet. This definitely includes sleet but ya….wow Yep. And I'm pretty sure when reporting snowfall you report sleet and snow all the same so that snow depth product should be the best predictor of the final totals. It's just hard to believe there can be that much depth change even including sleet especially south of I-44. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2022 10:33:46 GMT -6
looks like the gfs has it below 0 the following 3 nights after the storm
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2022 10:34:43 GMT -6
yeah the GEM is going to be a gem
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Jan 29, 2022 10:39:26 GMT -6
I am going to get excited once i see snowman is excited about storm!
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 10:39:45 GMT -6
Iof it gets a second wave going it could be an insane run. Unfortunately we’re four days out but things look awesome for a widespread major winter storm
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 10:39:57 GMT -6
GEM is going to absolutely bury the metro this run
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 29, 2022 10:40:40 GMT -6
Iv been out of touch for a bit. Tested posted for Covid a week and half ago but fully recovered and back.
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