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Post by weatherj on Jan 30, 2022 16:02:56 GMT -6
Day 4 WSSI is already highlighting major impacts for portions of the area pretty notable this far out  I know that's probably an overall assessment of the impact of the storm event, but I'm wondering why the highest impact would be around and on the S side of the metro and areas SE vs. NW where the heaviest snowband is currently being shown? It must be taking into account for higher ice accumulations in those areas. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 30, 2022 16:04:06 GMT -6
Incremental jump north on the final 850mb low track. Would put the metro in the zone of most intense snow as the system passes by.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 16:05:10 GMT -6
GFS is definitely trending stronger with that main energy Thursday
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Jan 30, 2022 16:07:27 GMT -6
920 by being stronger will it be to far south?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 16:09:43 GMT -6
Day 4 WSSI is already highlighting major impacts for portions of the area pretty notable this far out I know that's probably an overall assessment of the impact of the storm event, but I'm wondering why the highest impact would be around and on the S side of the metro and areas SE vs. NW where the heaviest snowband is currently being shown? It must be taking into account for higher ice accumulations in those areas. Ya ice is inherently more dangerous than snow which the WSSI takes into account |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 16:12:38 GMT -6
920 by being stronger will it be to far south? It’s north. There’s pretty clear consensus there’s going to be a decent break on Wednesday before round 2 comes in. Someone on a Columbia to Mexico to Bowling green and 50 miles on either side is in sweet spot for 12”+. And someone about 30-50 miles south of 44 and 64 is going to get an insane amount of sleet. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 30, 2022 16:12:41 GMT -6
The 12z GGEM snowfall map looks pretty reasonable.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 30, 2022 16:12:53 GMT -6
TWC vomiting out deterministic model data. what a frickin mess that place is Ugh, you made me look & I saw what their stupid name is for this one. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 30, 2022 16:13:48 GMT -6
GFS is north on this run ….I’m not liking this one bit
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 16:14:09 GMT -6
920 by being stronger will it be to far south? Not really. It's going to force more warm air over the cold air which will increase precipitation amounts/rates, but also leads to more mixing issues further north.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 30, 2022 16:15:25 GMT -6
GFS is north on this run ….I’m not liking this one bit For a couple different reasons I bet...1. less snow. 2. ups the ice potential. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 30, 2022 16:17:10 GMT -6
GFS is north on this run ….I’m not liking this one bit For a couple different reasons I bet...1. less snow. 2. ups the ice potential. Exactly right ! |
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Post by weatherj on Jan 30, 2022 16:21:11 GMT -6
For a couple different reasons I bet...1. less snow. 2. ups the ice potential. Exactly right ! It's total accumulated ZR so probably cut it by at least a .25 ", but 1.23" total for over here...NO thank you. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 30, 2022 16:22:19 GMT -6
Hope 00z models are good. Has storm been sampled? Yes and no. Yes in that satellites and trans-Pacific flights are always sampling the atmosphere all over the world. No in that balloon and takeoff/landing soundings are not available until the elements are over land. For this system I'm actually not sure this system will get fully sampled in that respect since one of the elements effecting the evolution of the trough enters Baja California. It looks most of the trough will be onshore at 0Z Wednesday though. |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 30, 2022 16:22:37 GMT -6
For a couple different reasons I bet...1. less snow. 2. ups the ice potential. Exactly right ! Also has cape getting DESTROYED with over 1.5 ice |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 30, 2022 16:23:46 GMT -6
Remember there's always this option
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Jan 30, 2022 16:24:00 GMT -6
Did GFS total snowfall decrease alot
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 30, 2022 16:25:52 GMT -6
Did GFS total snowfall decrease alot Just a trade north. Not a shock over all |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 16:26:02 GMT -6
A lot more freezing rain and sleet this run hopefully that’s not the trend , but usually the metro is the dividing line . I’ll definitely take the sleet but you hate to waste a arctic 1050 high sitting on top of you and your not all snow. 30-50 miles north of St. Louis looks to be the sweet spot for snow. I remember the GHD sleet megeden we had 3-5” of sleet and snow in Riverport and I had 8-9” of sleet /snow at home in wentzville with 12-13” of mostly snow at my office in Troy . Could be similar to that for sure the further north west the better off you are . The further south and East much less snow.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 30, 2022 16:26:29 GMT -6
Did GFS total snowfall decrease alot Not substantially. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 16:27:26 GMT -6
18z icon is a crush job and would make everyone thrilled.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 16:28:06 GMT -6
Bob yes it went down 25-30% so yes, it could easily flip by tomorrow. Lots of moving parts the models will keep making adjustments for sure
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 30, 2022 16:31:48 GMT -6
I don't think I can take another GHD sleet fest. Those old wounds run deep.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 30, 2022 16:33:44 GMT -6
I'm fairly certain that this was always forecast to be a rain to icy mix to heavy snow event and I haven't seen anything that sways me against that for much if not all of the region. Not sure I understand the D&G but it's always the same story. This comtinues to look like a major winter storm for the region and we've got people basically writing it off. Weird.
Maybe take a step away if you can't handle the emotional swings of trying to forecast this stuff.
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Post by TK on Jan 30, 2022 16:35:24 GMT -6
How many times have we seen a North trend happen vs South trend not happening? I am really concerned...
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 30, 2022 16:36:08 GMT -6
The airport has not recorded a 6" event in February in 29 years. We have a decent shot this time. Even if we only get 6" it will be memorable because of that alone.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 30, 2022 16:36:50 GMT -6
GEFS mean snow depth is ridiculous.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 16:41:11 GMT -6
Um, Dave?  |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 30, 2022 16:41:14 GMT -6
GEFS mean snow depth is ridiculous. Several ludicrous members in there for the metro. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 30, 2022 16:44:06 GMT -6
Stronger GFS is pushing wind gusts up to 40mph now. These forecasts tend to be too generous, but still that'd be a lot of blowing snow.
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