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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:17:41 GMT -6
I think it's the 49'ers and Chiefs for 2022 Superbowl with Chiefs winning but it could be close. Not a football fan, just my guess looking the the W/L of all the remaining teams and both of those are really great teams this season. chiefs lost. its bengals when they lose, today? I thought they were still in it. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 30, 2022 20:17:52 GMT -6
That is priceless Friv lol.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:18:12 GMT -6
In that case the Bengals.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 30, 2022 20:19:56 GMT -6
In that case the Bengals. 17 all. 645 left. |
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Post by TK on Jan 30, 2022 20:20:32 GMT -6
My early more logical guess is 1 to 1.5" of Rain, .25 to .3" of Glaze, then 1.5 to 2" of sleet with a nice hit of 4 to 8" of snow at the end for effectively 6-10" of 'stuff' on the ground. This is for Belleville, IL. Northwest half will do better then southeast half as usual.
Realize it's still a bit early for numbers, especially this exact but it looks like the most sound guess ATM.
So your predicting 6-10 for Friv? Friv thinks he is singing in the freezing rain/sleet? I'm confused? |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:20:51 GMT -6
Well it's a tie game for the 49'ers and Rams 3rd Quarter. Chiefs did lose today (just checked myself) by 3 points @ 24 Chiefs to 27 Bengals
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:21:33 GMT -6
My early more logical guess is 1 to 1.5" of Rain, .25 to .3" of Glaze, then 1.5 to 2" of sleet with a nice hit of 4 to 8" of snow at the end for effectively 6-10" of 'stuff' on the ground. This is for Belleville, IL. Northwest half will do better then southeast half as usual.
Realize it's still a bit early for numbers, especially this exact but it looks like the most sound guess ATM.
So your predicting 6-10 for Friv? Friv thinks he is singing in the freezing rain/sleet? I'm confused? Just my interpretation looking at the models and data. No means a done deal either way. |
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Post by grizzlebeard on Jan 30, 2022 20:24:29 GMT -6
As a reminder, here is where we clearly are as this system approaches, and what we still have to look forward to:
7. Each registered user bemoans the fact that the system is missing them by 50 miles.
8. System actually comes on shore, completely throwing all models into chaos. (This is also when terms like "nowcasting" begin to be used and "discos" from other NWS offices begin to show up regularly.)
9. Users again frantically try to determine how much will fall at their cross street.
10. System hits Texas and Oklahoma. Every user gives up hope of seeing any snow at all (24 hours earlier, the models indicated 6-8 inches at their cross-street.)
11. Users try not to use off-color language to indicate their frustration with not getting any snow at all.
12. 95% of users watch in horror as 5% of users begin to post photos of snow actually falling on one of the requested cross-streets. (Does any of the other old timers miss the pictures of Rosie's feet??)
STEADY AS SHE GOES....
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:25:17 GMT -6
Looking through the stats of the surviving teams, if the RAM's win tonight they will go on with the Superbowl win, but if not then the Bengals and 49'ers will be a close game with the 49'ers having a slight edge.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 30, 2022 20:25:42 GMT -6
Nam is 2* warmer at 6pm vs 12z Nam's 39*. Certainly alot cooler than the 52* on the 0z HRRR. Glass half full.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:26:52 GMT -6
As a reminder, here is where we clearly are as this system approaches, and what we still have to look forward to: 7. Each registered user bemoans the fact that the system is missing them by 50 miles. 8. System actually comes on shore, completely throwing all models into chaos. (This is also when terms like "nowcasting" begin to be used and "discos" from other NWS offices begin to show up regularly.) 9. Users again frantically try to determine how much will fall at their cross street. 10. System hits Texas and Oklahoma. Every user gives up hope of seeing any snow at all (24 hours earlier, the models indicated 6-8 inches at their cross-street.) 11. Users try not to use off-color language to indicate their frustration with not getting any snow at all. 12. 95% of users watch in horror as 5% of users begin to post photos of snow actually falling on one of the requested cross-streets. (Does any of the other old timers miss the pictures of Rosie's feet??) STEADY AS SHE GOES.... Looks like we've hit phase 7A then. A being miscellaneous sports talk to keep mind off models that are short changing anyone person's current location.  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:28:07 GMT -6
Nam is 2* warmer at 6pm vs 12z Nam's 39*. Certainly alot cooler than the 52* on the 0z HRRR. Glass half full. HRRR is so warm because it keeps us in the clear (no clouds, or minimum clouds) through Tuesday afternoon, most others don't (keeping us cloudy to mostly cloudy some even with sprinkles or showers around). I think 40s is a good bet for Tuesday's highs, with drop to freezing between 5 to 7AM Wednesday morning. |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 30, 2022 20:29:59 GMT -6
If you live in: These two cities are 40 miles North North East & 60 MILES NW OF STL Brighton Troy, MO THESE CITIES ARE GONNA GET 8-14" Moscow Mills Jerseyville Hardin Calhoun county (including... swamp lake, NUTWOOD 12 Mile Island Winfield Litchfield Montgomery Gentry City So yeah that's the cities off the top of my head that are in the Goldilocks zone. Then there is: Warrenton WINTERZZZZVILLE OFFALON, mo Saint "EXAGGERATION" PETERS Brussels NORTH SAINT CHUCKY GRAFTON Pier MARQUETTE COON CREEK ROAD ALTON EASTERN ALTON WOOD RIVER(STINKY TOWN) FLORISSANT NORTH CHEATERFELD. THOSE Cities are like gods looking down on the losers in RAINSBURG The folks North of 70 have a winter storm watch level icy event(sleet) coming... They also have the MOST CHERISHED(HEAVY SNOW WARNING) coming... Yeah I am jealous. This sucks I am playing nice. Anyone up North enjoy the event. My people's down here know those bloated totals on the Southern edge are 80 percent to high. This is how I'm coping with the huge disappointment that's coming You did forget that Union will be sunny and 65 through the duration of the event. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 30, 2022 20:30:08 GMT -6
NAM is much icier for the st.charles folks this run tuesday night compared to 18z, i dont like the ice.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 30, 2022 20:31:14 GMT -6
Nam is 3* warmer, 36*, at midnight 0z vs. 12z at 33*. Not nearly the colder air push up near ND/Canadien border as the 12z.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 30, 2022 20:32:13 GMT -6
Scratch that most of the metro gets a good bit of ice on NAM
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:32:16 GMT -6
My early more logical guess is 1 to 1.5" of Rain, .25 to .3" of Glaze, then 1.5 to 2" of sleet with a nice hit of 4 to 8" of snow at the end for effectively 6-10" of 'stuff' on the ground. This is for Belleville, IL. Northwest half will do better then southeast half as usual.
Realize it's still a bit early for numbers, especially this exact but it looks like the most sound guess ATM.
So your predicting 6-10 for Friv? Friv thinks he is singing in the freezing rain/sleet? I'm confused? Friv thinks he's singing in 33*F and heavy rain looking for wood to build that ark ship, then looking for pairs of animals and loading them up 2 by 2. That's what I'm getting from his talk any who. Ark and animals an exaggeration for sure, but it seems like that's what he thinks is going on ATM. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 30, 2022 20:34:57 GMT -6
Last play by play on the temps. 0z looks colder up north than the 12z by a couple degrees. 31* in STL which is still 4* warmer than the 12z.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 30, 2022 20:36:50 GMT -6
not watching the superbowl.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 20:37:49 GMT -6
Rams win. Barf
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Jan 30, 2022 20:38:14 GMT -6
Looks like the Lambs are going to the Super Bowel...lol
*Intentional misspelling!!!
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Post by amstilost on Jan 30, 2022 20:38:22 GMT -6
Crap
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 30, 2022 20:38:30 GMT -6
The NAM is much worse through 66 hours.
The ice/snow line is like 100 MILES NW OF STL.
AT HOUR 72 THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED.
FWIW....I do not enjoy this at all.
I am extremely disappointed with the trend this is entire event is going to end up with.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 30, 2022 20:39:09 GMT -6
and i wld say ice is the big story for this storm throughout metro. cannot overestimate waa here.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 30, 2022 20:39:10 GMT -6
No TV here so I was getting updates from you all. Crap
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:39:50 GMT -6
What's killing us macro scale is a east coast ridge that's quite a bit stronger then shown just this morning/yesterday night. In fact if things/trends continue into Monday night then we might have to think about a cutter. Which will likely kill any winter precip potential for all but the northwestern most counties of the area. If that's the route it takes I hope it goes all the way cutter and Kansas/Iowa/Wisconsin get the snow and we get thunderstorms.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 30, 2022 20:41:13 GMT -6
Most of you always say however NAM overestimates strength at this range. Steady as she goes. But the ice storm risk is upped substantialy in the NAM
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:41:15 GMT -6
Damn I wish the NAM would go to 120 hours. I want to see it shot north. Oh well.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 30, 2022 20:41:38 GMT -6
Nam sucks, no denying that.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 30, 2022 20:41:41 GMT -6
I AM DOOM AND GLOOM BECAUSE THIS LOOKED SOOOOOOOOOO
GOOD.
HOW IS THIS HAPPENING TO US AGAIN HOW MUCH MORE CAN WE TAKE
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