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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:41:49 GMT -6
Rams 2022 it is!
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 20:42:27 GMT -6
Yes NAM is not the trend we wanted warmer than 18z for basically bottoms out 26 Wednesday morning and warms up all day to 30
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 30, 2022 20:42:35 GMT -6
Friv's ability to sniff out trends (good and bad) is a well known phenomenon here. Hope he is wrong this time. This sucks...but we all know deep down it has to be this way. It's St.Louis.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 30, 2022 20:44:18 GMT -6
The NAM is much worse through 66 hours. The ice/snow line is like 100 MILES NW OF STL. AT HOUR 72 THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED. FWIW....I do not enjoy this at all. I am extremely disappointed with the trend this is entire event is going to end up with. Not what I was hoping to see for sure. Yuck. But it is outside of it's realibility window toward the end. Kind of looks weird because much colder air is in KS. Like 6 to 11* degrees colder than the 12z run. You would think that the push of colder air would keep the precip a little more suppressed. Sheesh |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 30, 2022 20:44:24 GMT -6
I AM DOOM AND GLOOM BECAUSE THIS LOOKED SOOOOOOOOOO GOOD. HOW IS THIS HAPPENING TO US AGAIN HOW MUCH MORE CAN WE TAKE Ever since 2017/18 the models have been PULLING THE RUG ON IS OVER AND OVER. 2018 JAN-MARCH WAS THE WINTER WE HAD WARNING LEVEL SNOW EVENTS ON ALL MODELS. THEN BETWEEN 84-108 HOURS THE MODELS WOULD STRAIGHT DROP THE STORMS ENTIRELY!!! |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:44:58 GMT -6
I AM DOOM AND GLOOM BECAUSE THIS LOOKED SOOOOOOOOOO GOOD. HOW IS THIS HAPPENING TO US AGAIN HOW MUCH MORE CAN WE TAKE If it's any consultation I really don't want it anyway. It'd be a helluva clean up, that I would have to do all by myself. So if given the choice between double digit snowfall or storms and warm, I'd take the latter any day of the week. That said in the end it is what it is. It's fun to pretend and imagine what it would look like, but once it's down and people can't go to work, schools close, and what not, or people go out of power or what not the fun quickly stops. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:46:49 GMT -6
In the end there's always next week...
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 30, 2022 20:47:13 GMT -6
not a good day. chiefs lost, rams won, model trends. but waa is trustworthy. you can count on it in this setup.
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 30, 2022 20:47:38 GMT -6
I don't like consultations either.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 30, 2022 20:49:27 GMT -6
Rather learn tonight than later that Lucy wins again.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 30, 2022 20:51:13 GMT -6
Guys its the NAM is not a big deal at this stage at least I know thats what lots of you taught me is to try not to model surf, as the NAM was pretty terrible in BOSTON at this range and they got slammed
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2022 20:52:04 GMT -6
We might be going a little overboard on the nam here lol.
Something tells me the board got a little over-attached to those 20 inch GGEM maps.
Deep breaths…a meaningful winter storm is still quite likely for the metro.
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 30, 2022 20:53:17 GMT -6
Lol it's Boston. No force on this planet could prevent Boston from missing an epic snowstorm.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 20:53:17 GMT -6
Another thing on the NAM it really dry slots us for like 12 hours, then wave two looks like a sleet fest into Thursday morning. It’s still holding some energy back .
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 20:54:57 GMT -6
Another thing on the NAM it really dry slots us for like 12 hours, then wave two looks like a sleet fest into Thursday morning. It’s still holding some energy back . That's Thursday night into Friday's fun. Still good for 1-3" where ever that low/disturbance tracks. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 20:55:51 GMT -6
I agree with World Series I still think the NAM will flip sometime tomorrow and be as cold as the other models. Unless all the other models and ensembles trend warmer it’s steady as she goes
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 30, 2022 20:56:23 GMT -6
I AM DOOM AND GLOOM BECAUSE THIS LOOKED SOOOOOOOOOO GOOD. HOW IS THIS HAPPENING TO US AGAIN HOW MUCH MORE CAN WE TAKE I'm surprised you are actually asking that question. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 20:56:45 GMT -6
Next up RGEM and ICON, let’s hope for a little colder solution
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 21:00:46 GMT -6
Well it took exactly one 00z model for calls of a cutter lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2022 21:01:34 GMT -6
00z FV3 has icing starting around hour 56 for STL.
Timing will definitely help accretion with it being dark out.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 30, 2022 21:02:00 GMT -6
Because a cutter into a 1045mb+ ridge makes sense...
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Post by ElburnDave on Jan 30, 2022 21:04:39 GMT -6
not a good day. chiefs lost, rams won, model trends. but waa is trustworthy. you can count on it in this setup. I’d buy the “In WAA We Trust” t-shirt!  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 21:05:04 GMT -6
The NAM is usually overamped. That’s nothing new. Let’s all relax. A major winter storm is coming.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:05:24 GMT -6
Because a cutter into a 1045mb+ ridge makes sense... What about the stout east coast ridge? That is a thing and it wants to scream this thing north.
MJO is heading into Phase 5 in the next week or so, and PNA going negative, also no blocking (NAO/AO both positive) that's bad signs all around in the near and distant future.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 21:06:09 GMT -6
So the NAM sucks and the board has lost its mind? Just want to make sure I understand the current state
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2022 21:07:59 GMT -6
So the NAM sucks and the board has lost its mind? Just want to make sure I understand the current state Some people are also upset about the Rams and Bengals winning, but I would say it’s 95% nam driven rage. The rgem can settle some nerves here shortly. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:08:34 GMT -6
ICON a hair warmer thus far.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 30, 2022 21:09:25 GMT -6
We're an enigma
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Post by thechaser on Jan 30, 2022 21:09:28 GMT -6
I am more of a severe weather guy vs. winter weather and the NAM being the NAM is nothing new for all the storm chasers out there
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Post by amstilost on Jan 30, 2022 21:09:44 GMT -6
It seems that the more separation on the models with the northern wave and energy coming into CA coast we get a 'little' warmer. Still a ways to go. The northern wave is still close in strength and proximity to the 1/30 0z run but the SW trough is sharper/a little deeper. SE ridge is also a littler stronger/further NW on todays 0z run.
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