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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 21:09:55 GMT -6
Some people on here just need to stop posting such non nonsense. Wow…
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 21:10:32 GMT -6
So the NAM sucks and the board has lost its mind? Just want to make sure I understand the current state I think because it shows mostly sleet and freezing rain people are freaking out. Verbatim it’s still a major storm for the entire area |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 30, 2022 21:11:49 GMT -6
1/31 01Z NBM KSTL
10-90% = 0.9" to 17.7"
25-75% = 2.8" to 11.9"
50% = 7.5"
S = 8.0"
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:11:56 GMT -6
RGEM out to 57 hours.
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 30, 2022 21:12:02 GMT -6
Four inches of sleet..no thanks. Rather have nothing if no snow is involved.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:13:03 GMT -6
It's warmer as well by a lock of hair.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2022 21:13:43 GMT -6
1/31 01Z NBM KSTL
10-90% = 0.9" to 17.7"
25-75% = 2.8" to 11.9"
50% = 7.5"
S = 8.0" Median and average finally tightening, but looks like it’s just more balance in the outliers on both ends of the distribution. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 21:15:13 GMT -6
RGEM is basically same has the temp down to 25 at 6am Wednesday with sleet falling
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:15:45 GMT -6
RGEM is warmer then it's previous runs by about 3*F, but still considerably colder then the NAM.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:17:47 GMT -6
WAVE 2 looks phenomenal from the immediate metro and northwest of I-44/I-70.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 30, 2022 21:18:07 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2022 21:18:16 GMT -6
RGEM is basically same has the temp down to 25 at 6am Wednesday with sleet falling It also has a nice wave #2 that doesn’t get as amplified as the nam. No shocker there. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:18:26 GMT -6
Belleville the sleet capital of the world from the RGEM though.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 30, 2022 21:20:00 GMT -6
It's not so much about what is or isn't possible. The NAM *could* be right and *might* provide useful insights, but remember it suffers from faster error growth than the global models. Stick to the global models at this range for now.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 30, 2022 21:21:37 GMT -6
1/31 01Z NBM KSTL
10-90% = 0.9" to 17.7"
25-75% = 2.8" to 11.9"
50% = 7.5"
S = 8.0" Median and average finally tightening, but looks like it’s just more balance in the outliers on both ends of the distribution. Yep. Exactly. The confidence intervals are tightening and the mean and median are converging. I'm actually a little surprised the mean and median are this close. I wouldn't be surprised to see them spread apart again in future cycles. We'll see what the 0Z globals say, but at this point I think everything looks on track for a significant weather event in the St. Louis metro area and surrounding areas. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:23:13 GMT -6
ICON warmer, similar to the NAM
Let me rephrase that. It's colder than the NAM at the surface but warmer aloft, so again sleetaggeddon.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 30, 2022 21:23:30 GMT -6
It's not so much about what is or isn't possible. The NAM *could* be right and *might* provide useful insights, but remember it suffers from faster error growth than the global models. Stick to the global models at this range for now. You don't think the hour by hour breakdown of each model for something 2 days away is better. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 21:24:57 GMT -6
That’s funny
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:26:35 GMT -6
GFS about to run. Hold on tight...
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 30, 2022 21:27:20 GMT -6
Wasn’t sleet supposed to be a part of the equation the whole time?
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 21:27:42 GMT -6
The icon is one degree warmer has temps in the upper teens to near 20 that’s crazy cold and likely snow . Definitely no where near the warmer NAM
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 30, 2022 21:27:57 GMT -6
It's not so much about what is or isn't possible. The NAM *could* be right and *might* provide useful insights, but remember it suffers from faster error growth than the global models. Stick to the global models at this range for now. You don't think the hour by hour breakdown of each model for something 2 days away is better. Good point. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 30, 2022 21:28:16 GMT -6
So the NAM sucks and the board has lost its mind? Just want to make sure I understand the current state In other words: situation normal 48-72 hours before a storm. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 30, 2022 21:28:21 GMT -6
Wasn’t sleet supposed to be a part of the equation the whole time? Yes. Like literally from the very beginning. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:28:32 GMT -6
You don't think the hour by hour breakdown of each model for something 2 days away is better. Good point. Just how boring it's been this season. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:29:08 GMT -6
We live by the models, and die by them. Kinda of the way it is for some of us.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 21:29:15 GMT -6
Wasn’t sleet supposed to be a part of the equation the whole time? Yes and a major factor south of 70 |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 21:30:12 GMT -6
Yes we’ve always had a decent amount of sleet in the forecast. Again I think certain people were so fixed on the 12-20” mostly snow solutions and now there disappointed. Still a huge storm with tons of precipitation and cold . I would much rather have a huge all snow event but that’s just not going to happen.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 21:30:51 GMT -6
rgem at 84 hours. 18° at the surface lol  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2022 21:30:56 GMT -6
I am a little confused when people are surprised the model runs all are broken down as they roll in 😂
That is what happens on an amateur weather blog when a storm is a couple days away. There are block functions and scroll functions. Personally, I enjoy a good cutter and muscle shirt post because it feels like satire even if that isn’t the intention.
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