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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:32:50 GMT -6
FV3-60hr now getting into starting range of the system, shows heavy freezing rain south of the metro, heavy sleet for the immediate metro and snow north. It's colder than the NAM.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 30, 2022 21:33:25 GMT -6
The other thing that might be important to point out is that sleet is particularly problematic for depth forecasts because of the step jump in SLR. Sleet is 2-3:1'ish where as snow typically bottoms out around 8:1'ish. It is possible to get SLR's in between when there is mixing, but generally speaking this should help illustrate why depth forecasts become particularly problematic when the ptype transition zone is close.
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Post by dmbstl on Jan 30, 2022 21:34:27 GMT -6
So another sleet event? Great.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 21:36:20 GMT -6
Is the FV3 a very good model? I don’t look at it much
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 30, 2022 21:36:38 GMT -6
NWS doesn't mention freezing rain and sleet in their point forecasts. That will change.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 30, 2022 21:37:33 GMT -6
Guys remember its the weather. You all have have had to give me reality checks, well this is mine, remember if you wake up breathing its going to be a good day, just enjoy the haves in life, and there is alot more to.be thankful for than just a winterstorm. It will be ok and enjoy the ride.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 21:37:42 GMT -6
Cards what is that sounding showing? What type of precipitation
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 30, 2022 21:39:17 GMT -6
So another sleet event? Great. I would take that over ice. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 21:39:33 GMT -6
It look like a sleet and snow mix I guess
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 30, 2022 21:41:26 GMT -6
NWS St. Louis has 1-3 inches for me.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:41:28 GMT -6
Is the FV3 a very good model? I don’t look at it much It's mainly a convective short-fuse model like the WRF but goes 12 hours farther. It's great for picking out mesoscale features but it's macro scale is lacking at times. WRF probably better, plus the FV3 is experimental I believe still, though maybe it's live now? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 21:41:58 GMT -6
Cards what is that sounding showing? What type of precipitation Teetering on the edge of snow and sleet... My main rationale for posting that is just showing how shallow that warm layer is. However, as we have learned before, it doesn't take much for it to stay sleet. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:43:50 GMT -6
So another sleet event? Great. I would take that over ice. specifically FRZRA, Sleet is ice too, just frozen when it hits the ground, so it just goes everywhere but unless it's mixed with FRZRA it's relatively harmless as it doesn't glaze unless it's warm enough to melt after hitting the surface, except in big amounts over half an inch to an inch which is warning criteria for sleet. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:44:40 GMT -6
GFS taking it's time to get rolling. Only now up to hour 3.  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:46:38 GMT -6
Fear not, yesterday and this morning we were worried about the EURO being too far south, that's the weather for you.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 21:47:12 GMT -6
Yes with the freezing rain-sleet and snow amounts this will definitely be a Winter Storm Warning at some point, probably a watch tomorrow morning . It doesn’t take much freezing rain and sleet to hit warning level criteria. I would think the whole viewing area will have one at some point
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:54:32 GMT -6
One bright spot, the GFS is colder then previous run with freezing line crossing the metro around 3AM Wednesday morning, after a high around 50 to 55*F Tuesday afternoon.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 30, 2022 21:55:21 GMT -6
GFS at 48 is the same temp wise as last run and the 2 runs before that... but 1 degree colder than the one before that and 2 degrees colder than the one before that.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:55:37 GMT -6
GFS also generally slightly more juicy especially on the cold side.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 21:56:50 GMT -6
Shortwave ridging underway Wednesday afternoon, a quasi-dry slot if you will working through.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 21:57:33 GMT -6
GFS at 48 is the same temp wise as last run and the 2 runs before that... but 1 degree colder than the one before that and 2 degrees colder than the one before that. So from that I can deduce that a blizzard is coming correct? |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 21:57:40 GMT -6
That’s funny
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 30, 2022 21:58:46 GMT -6
Coz just said blizzard incoming. Sweet.
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Post by thechaser on Jan 30, 2022 21:59:50 GMT -6
Is the FV3 a very good model? I don’t look at it much According to a friend of mine who works at the NWS, FV3 core is going to replace the HRRR & GFS. I don't know all the details about when and such, but that is something he told me about last year. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:01:43 GMT -6
GFS = Sleet city, 2-4" of the stuff for the metro, but a brief shot of insane snow between hour 81 to 84.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:02:43 GMT -6
Also 3' (feet) of snow for the northwestern 1/3rd of counties. Cause why not?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:04:28 GMT -6
GFS not a bad run for most, minus the far southeastern counties, still shows 8-12" of 'Stuff' (sleet/snow) for the metro area. Not shabby.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:05:29 GMT -6
3-4" of sleet for Belleville, with 3-5" of snow on top and that's before Thursday overnight into Friday's mini bonus event.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 22:07:00 GMT -6
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 30, 2022 22:07:04 GMT -6
Yet another slight shift north with the snow on the GFS ….. a couple more and we all will be singing Ice Ice baby
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