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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 22:07:29 GMT -6
Good run on gfs
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 30, 2022 22:07:59 GMT -6
Lol. Jesus.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2022 22:08:56 GMT -6
The consistency in the gfs is admirable.
That is a lot of consecutive runs with a similar outcome.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:08:58 GMT -6
Naturally the bonus event is absent from the 0Z run, but hints of it have come from time to time. This due to the GFS opening up and shearing out the disturbance rather than amplifying it as some other models have.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:09:46 GMT -6
Yet another slight shift north with the snow on the GFS ….. a couple more and we all will be singing Ice Ice baby 2/2/2011 redux, the carbon copy... |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 22:10:33 GMT -6
Man the roads are going to be a mess, with that much sleet/freezing rain /snow and temperatures in the teens/20’s .
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 22:12:19 GMT -6
I said that yesterday definitely very similar set up as first GHD event
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 30, 2022 22:14:04 GMT -6
You would think that the dynamics would be able to bust thru the narrow warm wedge a bit sooner than it shows.  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 30, 2022 22:14:46 GMT -6
Quite different than GHD really. That was a full blown monster cyclone. That doesn’t really happen with this one. Still looks a lot like a further north version of Dec. 5-6, 2013 to me.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 30, 2022 22:16:42 GMT -6
The consistency in the gfs is admirable. That is a lot of consecutive runs with a similar outcome. Yeah pretty good consistency here run to run. Only tiny changes in the location of main features from previous run. I'm really liking the 850mb low tracking very close to Cape G. Should top off the sleet with a decent snow in the immediate metro area. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:16:54 GMT -6
UKMET and GEM next.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 22:17:32 GMT -6
Gem looks awesome on black and white colder than all models has big hit of sleet/snow and it has the third wave Friday morning
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 22:18:37 GMT -6
You would think that the dynamics would be able to bust thru the narrow warm wedge a bit sooner than it shows. That warm wedge is what? Less than 1 km deep? |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 30, 2022 22:20:08 GMT -6
Yes
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Post by dschreib on Jan 30, 2022 22:23:06 GMT -6
You would think that the dynamics would be able to bust thru the narrow warm wedge a bit sooner than it shows. That warm wedge is what? Less than 1 km deep? Almost always underdone. I was almost sure it was super shallow and "only" about .5C a couple storms ago, and it did nothing but rain.
Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me...fool me twice...you won't get fooled again.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:24:07 GMT -6
Not deep, but stout. 10C @ 825MB nothing to sneeze at. Heavy precip rates with fully saturated atmosphere might actually lead to those surface temps rising once heavy precip arrives.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 22:25:07 GMT -6
That’s not even close to 10C
More like 2-3C
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 30, 2022 22:26:04 GMT -6
That warm wedge is what? Less than 1 km deep? Almost always underdone. I was almost sure it was super shallow and "only" about .5C a couple storms ago, and it did nothing but rain.
Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me...fool me twice...you won't get fooled again.
Solid historical political reference there. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 30, 2022 22:27:30 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 30, 2022 22:27:38 GMT -6
0Z GEFS. Another day and another run and it's snow depth product is still ridiculous.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 22:27:50 GMT -6
I’ve been out in every single snow storm for the last 28 years. It could be one of those situations where during heavier rates it’s a mix of snow /sleet/graupel I’ve seen it many times in the past . The key is we should have temps in the mid 20’s that’s very efficient for sleet accumulation. This is better than us watching it rain at 33-34 hoping the temp will drop
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:30:05 GMT -6
That’s not even close to 10C More like 2-3C isn't the light green and red lines the dewpoint and temp? Where are you getting 2.5*C? If you look at the notch it's clearly almost at 10*C @825mb level before dropping as you head closer to the surface. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 22:30:11 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 22:31:44 GMT -6
That’s not even close to 10C More like 2-3C isn't the light green and red lines the dewpoint and temp? Where are you getting 2.5*C? If you look at the notch it's clearly almost at 10*C @825mb level before dropping as you head closer to the surface. Temperature lines run at a 45° angle from the left to right, not straight up and down. Hence the name skew-T |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 22:31:45 GMT -6
GEFS still 12-16” mean snow through out the area
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 30, 2022 22:32:12 GMT -6
Man the roads are going to be a mess, with that much sleet/freezing rain /snow and temperatures in the teens/20’s . Add to that MODOT short on staff and no chance to pre treat due to rain. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 30, 2022 22:32:24 GMT -6
Almost always underdone. I was almost sure it was super shallow and "only" about .5C a couple storms ago, and it did nothing but rain.
Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me...fool me twice...you won't get fooled again.
Solid historical political reference there. That was a totally different set up... this is 5000ft up and have heavy flakeage falling into that small wedge |
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 30, 2022 22:33:14 GMT -6
Correct me if I am wrong, but I feel like the GFS has been pretty solid at this range as of late.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:33:47 GMT -6
So it's diagonal not vertical. Looks like it even 'cheats' and shows the freezing (0*C or lower) between the dashed blue lines. In which case it gets to your 2C. OK. Honest lack of knowledge there. Thanks for the info. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 30, 2022 22:39:18 GMT -6
0Z GDPS puts the axis of maximum depth pretty much right through the metro area. It's snow depth product is reasonable and realistic unlike the...eh..um...GFS and its ensemble. It also has over 3.0" of ZR for parts of AR, TN, and KY. That's pretty gnarly down that way.
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