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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:40:00 GMT -6
GEM has some pretty biblical Ice Acceleration amounts along the Ohio River, Sheez.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 22:40:07 GMT -6
Gem Kuchera is 12-14” for the metro with some freezing rain on the front end . It’s by far the coldest model so far. Hopefully it has some insider Canada knowledge of the cold high pressure that the other models don’t know about!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:41:04 GMT -6
UKMET is rolling out.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 22:41:58 GMT -6
Bdgwx there’s going to be an area with some heavy freezing rain, I would not want to live down there. I bet we see some hefty reports way south , just not sure where it sets up.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:44:06 GMT -6
UKMET is a very solid run.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:45:04 GMT -6
UKMET finishes with 15-18" accumulated snowfall using 10:1 ratios. Centered right on top of the metro area.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:46:10 GMT -6
UKMET also features the overnight Thursday into Friday AM wave as well.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:48:01 GMT -6
UKMET prints out 3.6+" of QPF in the southeastern half of the metro in Jefferson County, Missouri to Monroe and St. Clair counties in Illinois. Just wow! I get access to the higher detailed UKMET through my pivotal subscription.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 30, 2022 22:48:03 GMT -6
Steady as she goes yall! Have a great night. Thank you all for your input and knowledge.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 22:48:13 GMT -6
After the NAm everything looks great. Fear not. Steady as she goes. This is going to be a fun week.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 22:48:57 GMT -6
The consistency in the gfs is admirable. That is a lot of consecutive runs with a similar outcome. This. It has been solid this year. also, I was digging into model scores and it looks like ICON is toward the top as far as temperatures are concerned. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 30, 2022 22:49:54 GMT -6
Ukie is pretty awesome
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2022 22:50:32 GMT -6
Ukmet is probably the coldest model yet switch’s you snow similar to gem . Hammers the metro with 12-16” of snow. Then there’s that . I agree with the others you have a 1050 HP driving right into the storm injecting cold air a d we’re not dealing with a crazy strong low , it would be different if there was a 990 LP coming out of Texas. That’s not the case , with this set up I think the colder solutions will end up coming true more than some of the warmer ones. Maybe I’m just wish casting but it just makes more meteorology sense.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 22:50:52 GMT -6
Just leaves the EURO, but most probably won't be staying up for it as it doesn't come around until after Midnight.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 22:52:00 GMT -6
GEM has some pretty biblical Ice Acceleration amounts along the Ohio River, Sheez. 3” of ice + below 0 temps is not ideal |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 22:52:59 GMT -6
Basically a 2014 repeat there as far as snow amounts. This would just be On top of ice. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2022 22:54:48 GMT -6
Looking at sounding,
UKMet is 2-3 degrees colder where other models have that small warm wedge. By far the coldest at that level.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 30, 2022 22:56:18 GMT -6
Per soundings that's all snow or close to it for the metro at hour 60 on the UKMET.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 23:14:48 GMT -6
00z GEFS positive snow depth change Not sure how accurate this is but It's fun to look at  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2022 23:50:43 GMT -6
Cobb data for STL off the 00z GFS prints out:
9.8" of snow
1.17" of sleet
0.28" of ZR
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 30, 2022 23:56:39 GMT -6
EURO running now. Upto 24 hours.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 31, 2022 0:15:24 GMT -6
I know... one storm at a time... but did someone earlier say the models are showing more snow like next week too? Are we going to get all of our Winter jammed into the month of February?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 0:35:05 GMT -6
Euro looks to confirm the going forecast: Rain to icy mix to snow Quite a bit of freezing rain this run, especially across the southern counties  |
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Post by RyanD on Jan 31, 2022 0:49:50 GMT -6
Ahh, the frustrations of living in the "transition zone" but seems where I live is always in that zone. Seems all the models are honing in on a very heavy band of snow just N and NW of the metro. That area looks like a lock for big snow at this point. The question after that is how much snow falls in that transition zone from STL down to roughly the Kaskaskia River. Could be a sleetfest or could switch to snow sooner and make more of us happy. As usual this isn't going to be easy to pin down. UKIE is a big hit of snow for everyone. GEM is solid for my area but far from anything historic. GFS is huge depending on what algorithm you use. Oddly the total snowfall and positive depth is much higher than the Kuchera total snowfall for my area on the GFS. I can see why FRIV's is nervous because nothing sucks more than seeing the big snows just to your north while it's sleeting at your house. It looks like this could be a storm to remember for areas that turn to snow early and get in on all 3 waves.
Also, being today is the 40th anniversary of the "Blizzard" of '82 it's understandable there have been some comparisons to it. There are some strong similarities with the strong arctic front pressing in and stalling out just south of STL. A rather weak SLP tracking to the south of us. In fact this SLP is modeled even weaker but takes a similar path. The thing is, in '82 it just went straight from rain to snow. I don't recall any sleet. If it sleeted it was very brief. Just another anomaly with that storm. Thinking back I wonder why there wasn't more sleet given the similarities. Maybe we will get lucky and the cold air will be deeper and we switch to snow sooner. The SLP isn't very strong. Would think WAA wouldn't be that crazy but we all know too well you can never underestimate the WAM. I think we'd all be happy with an area wide 8-12" on top of some sleet but we can dream of a 15-20" storm. LOL
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 1:20:25 GMT -6
I've looked at about all I can look at for now. This is what my thoughts have crystalized around for now... I'll post this here... but not out on social media for now. These are my first thoughts on potential accumulation for this system. The volume of QPF will be impressive... but figuring out the breakdown between rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow is super complex... especially in a multi-wave event which this appears to be.  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 31, 2022 2:38:43 GMT -6
The 03Z rap is almost like the NAM was a few days ago.
With wave one has the boundary layer quite a bit further South than other models.
The 06Z HRRR as well.
The uknet is a beautiful dream.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 31, 2022 2:45:49 GMT -6
I've looked at about all I can look at for now. This is what my thoughts have crystalized around for now... I'll post this here... but not out on social media for now. These are my first thoughts on potential accumulation for this system. The volume of QPF will be impressive... but figuring out the breakdown between rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow is super complex... especially in a multi-wave event which this appears to be. Good thing you cant look any thing more. Since the 06Z NAM IS EVEN WORSE |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 3:54:30 GMT -6
GFS is going to be really good
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 4:00:58 GMT -6
By really good I mean lock it in right now.
Epic. Perfect. Kaboom. Let’s go.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 4:09:07 GMT -6
On GFS: hours 66-72 look like this. You can literally take the snow sleet line up 44. N is snow. S is sleet. But it is so close. Difference between 15” and 6”  |
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