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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2022 4:15:45 GMT -6
Yeah...but look at that juicy looking pocket of CAPE just above it.
Buckle up kids!
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 4:17:54 GMT -6
WSWatch issued.
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations between 6 and 9 inches and sleet accumulations
around one quarter of an inch. Ice accumulations up to one-quarter
of an inch are possible in southeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois.
* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, and west central
Illinois. Portions of central, east central, northeast, and
southeast Missouri.
* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday evening.
* IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow and ice on tree
limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages.
Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree limbs may
cause widespread and long-lasting power outages. Travel could be
very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday
evening and Wednesday morning commutes.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 4:29:14 GMT -6
GEFS snow depth. Doesn’t get any better.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2022 6:00:07 GMT -6
This may be a good time to brush up on the good ol' Garcia Method if you're into that kind of thing...
Earl's Isentropic Viewer
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 6:10:20 GMT -6
6z Euro is going to be better than 00z. Global continue to trend in right direction. I’d expect a much different NAM by this afternoon if not this morning.
Edit: euro wants to go kaboom at 66
Edit: really wants to go kaboom at 69
So close. Just can’t get past that shallow warm layer. Sleet fest S of 70. 12-20” N
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 31, 2022 6:16:38 GMT -6
6z Euro is going to be better than 00z. Global continue to trend in right direction. I’d expect a much different NAM by this afternoon if not this morning. Edit: euro wants to go kaboom at 66 Edit: really wants to go kaboom at 69 “really wants to go kaboom at 69” Tee hee…..I think I’ve been teaching middle school for too long. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2022 6:18:11 GMT -6
The feed of deep moisture into this storm is incredible. The method outlined above suggests potential for 10"+ of snowfall within the cold sector prior to the last wave on Thursday. I do think there is real potential for 15-20" totals with this storm within the CWA. My gut is telling me that will set up roughly from COU to SPI. The Metro and points S/SE will likely deal with mixing during the first half of this storm, but there's still very good potential for 6"+ amounts with the final wave on top of a mess of snow, sleet and glaze ice.
The ZR potential across the S counties is very, very concerning. 1"+ of glaze isn't out of the question here.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 6:29:43 GMT -6
Cards what’s the 6Z Euro showing? Colder more snow hopefully
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 6:30:04 GMT -6
6z euro supports Chris’ map perfectly at this point.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 6:32:53 GMT -6
Here are 6z euro zr and snow maps. Took the 10:1 ratio map because I felt kuchera was a little too clownish.   |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 31, 2022 6:33:14 GMT -6
Just saw the 06Z GFS.
MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE SECOND PART OF THE SYSTEM.
THAT'S A GREAT RELIEF
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 6:36:49 GMT -6
6z Euro looks awesome
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 6:40:55 GMT -6
Looks like we could get to -10 if clouds stay away Saturday night.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 31, 2022 6:40:57 GMT -6
A 50 mile shift South and we can tie this one off and boogy  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 6:42:37 GMT -6
That’s a better attitude 21
except, I’ll take it as is right now with no shift. 10 on top of 1” of sleet and 1/4” of ice would shut the weekend down.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 31, 2022 6:45:30 GMT -6
The accumulated ice map above.....does that include sleet or just glaze ice? I can’t remember and have so much rotating in my head right now. TIA
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 31, 2022 6:46:51 GMT -6
If you live well North of 70. That would be extremely disappointing for over half of the forum. The way the models are handling the energy ejecton it won't take much right turning off the trough axis to really set the metro for clobbering time. |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 31, 2022 6:50:31 GMT -6
The accumulated ice map above.....does that include sleet or just glaze ice? I can’t remember and have so much rotating in my head right now. TIA Be safe this week brother! You know where we’re at. The coffee pot is always on if you need to get caffeinated. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 31, 2022 6:51:00 GMT -6
That’s a better attitude 21 except, I’ll take it as is right now with no shift. 10 on top of 1” of sleet and 1/4” of ice would shut the weekend down. Yeah its good for us. But not so much for the folks in Perryville, St. Gen, Farmington and any other backwoods backwards hick h*** hole. If we gett the 12-20" band to run up 44/64 the entire metro will be plastered in white |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 6:51:49 GMT -6
It still has a decent amount of snow for you guys and I did see the extended HRRR and RAP like mentioned both have us near freezing around 12-2 am on Wednesday morning a little sooner than most models currently hopefully everything keeps trending south some today
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2022 6:52:02 GMT -6
The accumulated ice map above.....does that include sleet or just glaze ice? I can’t remember and have so much rotating in my head right now. TIA FRAM stands for freezing rain accumulation model, so unless it is really poorly named that map should be looking at ZR accretion. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 31, 2022 6:52:46 GMT -6
Excuse me?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 31, 2022 6:54:30 GMT -6
You want snow or not? I was just kidding. Now no snow 4 you |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 7:09:16 GMT -6
The accumulated ice map above.....does that include sleet or just glaze ice? I can’t remember and have so much rotating in my head right now. TIA FRAM stands for freezing rain accumulation model, so unless it is really poorly named that map should be looking at ZR accretion. Correct. Euro’s precip map literally showed no sleet across area. Just zr and snow. However, soundings indicate plenty of sleet but when I took it by the 3 hour increments it accounted it in the fram map. So, that zr map above isn’t 100% accurate. If that makes sense. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2022 7:21:34 GMT -6
9z sref mean is about 8 inches for STL through Thursday evening.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 7:25:01 GMT -6
That’s a nice mean on the sref
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Post by snowday_lover on Jan 31, 2022 7:35:38 GMT -6
Soooo.... I thought that models still showed lots of ice for us here in the southern counties.?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2022 7:42:53 GMT -6
Soooo.... I thought that models still showed lots of ice for us here in the southern counties.? They do, meaningful ice pretty much up to the 70 corridor, but more ice the further south you go. You’ll still get some snow from the last wave though, potentially several inches. |
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Post by snowday_lover on Jan 31, 2022 7:50:22 GMT -6
Soooo.... I thought that models still showed lots of ice for us here in the southern counties.? They do, meaningful ice pretty much up to the 70 corridor, but more ice the further south you go. You’ll still get some snow from the last wave though, potentially several inches. Okay, thanks for the info. That's what I thought but wasn't sure if anything changed over-night. I'll be keeping an eye on this because the ice amounts down here could cause some major issues. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 7:53:08 GMT -6
12z HRRR looks pretty good at 48
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