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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2022 7:53:36 GMT -6
That’s a better attitude 21 except, I’ll take it as is right now with no shift. 10 on top of 1” of sleet and 1/4” of ice would shut the weekend down. Yeah its good for us. But not so much for the folks in Perryville, St. Gen, Farmington and any other backwoods backwards hick h*** hole. If we gett the 12-20" band to run up 44/64 the entire metro will be plastered in white Honest question...have you ever even been to any of those places you just blatantly insulted?
I've been to Belleville and it's no paradise.
I sent you a PM asking if you're OK, because it's clear you are not...and you didn't even bother responding.
Get over yourself, dude.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 8:09:33 GMT -6
Yeah, come on. Be better than that, Friv.
Nam is several degrees colder through 33
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 31, 2022 8:11:43 GMT -6
1/31 07Z NBM KSTL
10-90% = 1.5" to 15.4"
25-75% = 2.6" to 10.8"
50% = 6.7"
S = 7.9"
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2022 8:15:00 GMT -6
speaking of those places, our 5th grade class took a field trip to Ste. Genevieve. had a lot of fun. first settlement west of MS River. I just wanted to put that out there. A lot of cool history in both MO and IL. Im sure every locale has a claim to fame abt its history. its the appreciation that towns have in their own history that make it cool. my hometown does not seem to appreciate the history though. it lets the university acquire historical landmarks and tear them down for more parking lots, instead of building a centrally located parking garage. I love towns that take care of their history.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 31, 2022 8:18:37 GMT -6
We're allowed to insult ourselves down here in the sticks. Skinny jeans-wearing, pinko city folk aren't.
 <----That means I'm kidding. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 8:24:19 GMT -6
off to a bang up day here I see, lol
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 8:31:10 GMT -6
The NAM is going to drop 3' in Central Illinois.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
Member is Online
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Post by bob on Jan 31, 2022 8:33:28 GMT -6
Cards what does NAM show for st charles
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 31, 2022 8:34:05 GMT -6
Nam still icy, but seems to be trending gradually back to reality. Steady as she goes
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 8:36:23 GMT -6
NAM is huge step in right direction.
I predict 00z run tonight will be $$$
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 8:37:10 GMT -6
Let me put my moderator hat on for a moment...ok that's better.
The next few days are going to be hectic around here I'm sure. Remember, there are a lot of folks who lurk and read this forum that we never see. They read it for good information. We are known for good information. We can do this and be mindful of others, be careful with your comments. Be HONEST always, don't insult. We can have fun while doing this without anyone getting put into timeout. Yes..I need to follow my own advice lol. Now..let's get this storm and bring it home!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 8:40:05 GMT -6
Yeah, NAM is cooling off in the mid levels faster..getting that sleet to snow a little faster..need another 6-9 hours quicker. Getting there.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 8:40:33 GMT -6
The NAM is absolutely BONKERS last 10 hours.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 8:41:18 GMT -6
I would volunteer to be a moderator too but I have 3 kids myself and can't even control them half the time.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 31, 2022 8:43:27 GMT -6
I hope I am doing better guys. I am very excited but I am really enjoying watching yalls input. Lets have fun this week.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2022 8:43:46 GMT -6
12z nam looks pretty close to what I expect.
Falls inline with the gfs ensemble mean and the euro.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 31, 2022 8:44:20 GMT -6
So if the NAM comes back to reality temperature-wise, the metro looks like a sweet spot for heavy snow. It really appears the axis is in place for the I-44 special. I personally hope for less ice and more snow but regardless, looks like we are in business!!!!
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 31, 2022 8:45:06 GMT -6
The NAM has the axis of heaviest snow/sleet accumulation from Columbia, MO to Springfield, IL.   |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 31, 2022 8:47:35 GMT -6
The 12Z NBM has the axis of heaviest snow from Columbia, MO to Springfield, IL. I'll post the corresponding KSTL probabilities in about 15-30 minutes.  |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 31, 2022 8:51:41 GMT -6
I would volunteer to be a moderator too but I have 3 kids myself and can't even control them half the time. Like herding cats sometimes...
We (at least I) let a lot slide, because most of us know how most of us are. I do bring out the occasional DELETE POST hammer; so if anyone sees a post that was there a minute ago but probably shouldn't have been and isn't, it was likely me.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 31, 2022 8:53:19 GMT -6
The 12Z NBM has the axis of heaviest snow from Columbia, MO to Springfield, IL. I'll post the corresponding KSTL probabilities in about 15-30 minutes. I think that tight drop off in accumulations down this was is inevitable. It is what it is...what it has been...what it seemingly always will be. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 31, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
1/31 13Z NBM KSTL
10-90% = 1.4" to 16.8"
25-75% = 3.7" to 12.2"
50% = 7.4"
S = 7.8"
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 9:10:16 GMT -6
If you look at the Kuchera snowfall map right now from the nam and took 80% of those totals, I think it'd be realistic. I can't post map currently.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 31, 2022 9:15:12 GMT -6
The 12Z NBM has the axis of heaviest snow from Columbia, MO to Springfield, IL. I'll post the corresponding KSTL probabilities in about 15-30 minutes. I think that tight drop off in accumulations down this was is inevitable. It is what it is...what it has been...what it seemingly always will be.Almost had the title to the song.  Apologies to Zeppelin, What is and What Should NEVER Be. Well the wind won't blow, it's never going to snow, it only goes to show, woe, woe, wo |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2022 9:16:29 GMT -6
Notable jog north on the 12z rgem for wave #1 upping the ice threat for the central metro.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 31, 2022 9:17:48 GMT -6
If you look at the Kuchera snowfall map right now from the nam and took 80% of those totals, I think it'd be realistic. I can't post map currently. That's actually pretty close to the reduction factor I'm seeing with the Cobb method. I do wonder if the Cobb method isn't exaggerating the totals as well though. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 31, 2022 9:19:34 GMT -6
The accumulated ice map above.....does that include sleet or just glaze ice? I can’t remember and have so much rotating in my head right now. TIA Sleet is usually counted in the snowfall maps, IIRC. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 31, 2022 9:22:30 GMT -6
I was just listening to a Cape radio station and they had 1 to 3 inches of snow on Wednesday Wednesday night Thursday and Thursday night… Didn’t even mention freezing rain… I couldn’t believe it… They might be lucky to get 3 inches total
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 9:24:32 GMT -6
12z ICON looks colder and less amped up with the main energy Thursday
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2022 9:25:16 GMT -6
I was just listening to a Cape radio station and they had 1 to 3 inches of snow on Wednesday Wednesday night Thursday and Thursday night… Didn’t even mention freezing rain… I couldn’t believe it… They might be lucky to get 3 inches total i think Beau Dodson social media weather guy (cant recall if hes a met, but hes reasonable), has a realistic expectation for this storm. |
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<----That means I'm kidding.
