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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 9:30:15 GMT -6
RGEM shows pretty much same snow totals from that COU to SPI line. Gives downtown St Louis 3" of Sleet. Yes, sleet.
Looking at those soundings, St Louis is going to be teetering on the edge of snow/sleet late Wed into Thursday for hours.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 9:32:21 GMT -6
It is becoming increasingly clear that someone is going to get 6" of concrete sleet and snow and someone 10 miles N of them will be 12-15" of snow.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 31, 2022 9:35:56 GMT -6
It is becoming increasingly clear that someone is going to get 6" of concrete sleet and snow and someone 10 miles N of them will be 12-15" of snow. I'm not real skilled at determining thunder on skewts, but I noticed some pretty steep lapse rates during sleet signals on earlier runs, at least for my area. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 31, 2022 9:39:26 GMT -6
I did some digging. It looks like the Atmospheric River Storm project is running daily reconnaissance flights over the Pacific. This data is fed into the global circulation models.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 31, 2022 9:42:31 GMT -6
It is becoming increasingly clear that someone is going to get 6" of concrete sleet and snow and someone 10 miles N of them will be 12-15" of snow. I'm not real skilled at determining thunder on skewts, but I noticed some pretty steep lapse rates during sleet signals on earlier runs, at least for my area. It looks like you/showtime and I will be riding the line from sleetfest to significant/potentially crippling ZR from wave 1 and 2. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 9:44:41 GMT -6
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bob
Junior Forecaster
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Post by bob on Jan 31, 2022 9:47:55 GMT -6
Cards what is the link you posted telling us? Also do you think mostly sleet here on ofallon mo
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Post by dschreib on Jan 31, 2022 9:48:47 GMT -6
I'm not real skilled at determining thunder on skewts, but I noticed some pretty steep lapse rates during sleet signals on earlier runs, at least for my area. It looks like you/showtime and I will be riding the line from sleetfest to significant/potentially crippling ZR from wave 1 and 2. That's almost a given...almost. More sleet than freezing rain, I think (hope). It's just been a few years since I've had thunder with a winter event. The last few have been sleet or freezing rain. Seems like that's a possibility with this one again. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 9:49:48 GMT -6
gfs hits the freezing mark at midnight tuesday night
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 9:51:00 GMT -6
Cards what is the link you posted telling us? Also do you think mostly sleet here on ofallon mo Sounding for STL showing snow by Wednesday morning. Outlier but good to see. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 9:52:35 GMT -6
GFS is pretty similar to 6z so far. Maybe a hair cooler and a hair south.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 9:54:03 GMT -6
looks like gfs is a touch colder..has it all snow by 6pm Wednesday.earlier than before
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 9:54:16 GMT -6
and KABOOM on GFS
20 Mile + shift south with snow line based on soundings
12z trends are tremendous.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 9:54:25 GMT -6
gfs will be nuts
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2022 9:55:19 GMT -6
This one definitely has thunder potential.
And Cards is absolutely right...the margin between mixing and snow will be very thin...and at times, modulated by strong lift/convection.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 9:55:20 GMT -6
GFs looks like mostly snow in the metro on that main wave Thursday
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 9:55:53 GMT -6
Arkansas robbing a bit of moisture at hour 69 but incredible run so far. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 9:57:46 GMT -6
I keep watching the back end of this system come Thursday night and it is almost trying to create a 4th round.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 10:00:09 GMT -6
gfs dumps like 8-12 inches from 6pm to 6am wednesday night
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 10:00:55 GMT -6
Positive snowfall depth change is absolutely bonkers in the metro that run
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 10:02:14 GMT -6
This includes sleet  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 10:05:49 GMT -6
The 10:1 map is showing 12-18” in the metro from that run
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 10:06:04 GMT -6
WOW could we lock that puppy in now! I still think the colder solutions will win this war
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2022 10:07:13 GMT -6
found this little tidbit of info from Middle Tn: 5 inches of snow and ice fell on january 31, 1951, producing a water equivalent of 3.83, the greatest one-day January precip event for Nashville history.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 31, 2022 10:07:24 GMT -6
It is becoming increasingly clear that someone is going to get 6" of concrete sleet and snow and someone 10 miles N of them will be 12-15" of snow. anyone getting 6 inches of sleet with snow on top is going to be shut down for days, into the end of the weekend. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2022 10:08:51 GMT -6
I'm pushing in all the chips...20-24" IMBY
Let's do this.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 10:09:03 GMT -6
This forum has been around for 14-15 years. There are 4-5 winter storms we always talk about.
82
06 ice storm
Feb 2014 Snow
Jan 2019 Snow
Maybe you can group the entire stretch in February last year.
These don't come around often. This is one of those that 100% has the potential to be talked about forever.
The sleet is going to be an issue in places. It always is. You can't ignore trends and past history of how things work in this area. But, nonetheless, this could be incredible.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 10:10:06 GMT -6
Haha, the fact that BRTN just posted that at the exact same time has me even more amped up
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 10:12:10 GMT -6
GEFS is going to be even better than 6z .
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 31, 2022 10:12:30 GMT -6
This forum has been around for 14-15 years. There are 4-5 winter storms we always talk about. 82 06 ice storm Feb 2014 Snow Jan 2019 Snow Maybe you can group the entire stretch in February last year. These don't come around often. This is one of those that 100% has the potential to be talked about forever. The sleet is going to be an issue in places. It always is. You can't ignore trends and past history of how things work in this area. But, nonetheless, this could be incredible. throw the March 2008 snow in that mix. BRTN and I both got about 14-15 inches in that baby. overnight that night was still to this day that hardest snowfall I've ever watched. |
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