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Post by jmg378s on Jan 31, 2022 10:12:59 GMT -6
This one definitely has thunder potential. And Cards is absolutely right...the margin between mixing and snow will be very thin...and at times, modulated by strong lift/convection. Yeah I'd like to dig into the thunder potential tonight. Yesterday I couldn't find much evidence for elevated cape in the BUFKIT soundings or time/height cross sections. However, I did generate angular momentum / theta-e cross sections in AWIPS and there was clear CSI on the northwest side of the low on Thursday. As long as we get a stronger storm I'm betting there'll be some mesoscale convective banding as the main system moves through. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 31, 2022 10:13:25 GMT -6
I don't envy the on-air mets this week.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 10:13:46 GMT -6
I'm pushing in all the chips...20-24" IMBY Let's do this. How much for Union lol You haven't made a map in years. You should do that |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 31, 2022 10:15:20 GMT -6
NWS St. Louis says 3-7 in for Ferguson so we’ll prob get something in the middle of that.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 10:15:48 GMT -6
GEM on black and white looks great colder similar to GFS , I can’t tell how much qpf but should be a hefty snow amount
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 31, 2022 10:16:39 GMT -6
GEFS showing 13-16" at hour 78 wow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2022 10:16:46 GMT -6
This forum has been around for 14-15 years. There are 4-5 winter storms we always talk about. 82 06 ice storm Feb 2014 Snow Jan 2019 Snow Maybe you can group the entire stretch in February last year. These don't come around often. This is one of those that 100% has the potential to be talked about forever. The sleet is going to be an issue in places. It always is. You can't ignore trends and past history of how things work in this area. But, nonetheless, this could be incredible. throw the March 2008 snow in that mix. BRTN and I both got about 14-15 inches in that baby. overnight that night was still to this day that hardest snowfall I've ever watched. Como, I only got about 8-9" from that one IMBY...the dry slot came in for a bit and shut down the 3"/hr stuff while it was still parked over N/W County. Still the heaviest I've ever seen it snow, with thunder in the distance. Pure bliss. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 10:17:28 GMT -6
Soundings with that main wave Thursday look beautiful around here
A fully saturated column up to the tropopause and lift present throughout nearly the entire column
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 10:18:51 GMT -6
Yes GEFS will probably have the 16-18” band in the metro or very close to that . I can’t remember ever seeing its mean that high for sure
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 10:19:21 GMT -6
GEFS showing 13-16" at hour 78 wow. Yes. Actually very similar to 6z. Maybe a tad less. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 31, 2022 10:19:36 GMT -6
NWS St. Louis says 3-7 in for Ferguson so we’ll prob get something in the middle of that. Check forecast for all days. When I look it is 4-10 not including Thursday for your location. The point forecast meteogram verbatim is 10.1" including Thursday. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 10:20:02 GMT -6
throw the March 2008 snow in that mix. BRTN and I both got about 14-15 inches in that baby. overnight that night was still to this day that hardest snowfall I've ever watched. Como, I only got about 8-9" from that one IMBY...the dry slot came in for a bit and shut down the 3"/hr stuff while it was still parked over N/W County. Still the heaviest I've ever seen it snow, with thunder in the distance. Pure bliss. WSC was the other one that jackpotted there. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2022 10:20:24 GMT -6
I'm pushing in all the chips...20-24" IMBY Let's do this. How much for Union lol You haven't made a map in years. You should do that 0.1-2" glaze, ~1" of sleet and 8" of snow...maybe more Will try to whip up a map later on. Firing up the smoker and enjoying this heat wave. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 10:21:38 GMT -6
NWS St. Louis says 3-7 in for Ferguson so we’ll prob get something in the middle of that. that map only goes thru 6am Thursday, the forecast several more inches for Thursday morning. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2022 10:23:02 GMT -6
Can someone plz link to the NWS winter weather forecast chart page if it still exists? I can't navigate gub'mint pages to save my soul.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 10:28:21 GMT -6
Can someone plz link to the NWS winter weather forecast chart page if it still exists? I can't navigate gub'mint pages to save my soul. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 31, 2022 10:32:05 GMT -6
Omg!!! Did anyone see the 12z NAM!?!?!?!
It is so pretty to look at! Lol
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 31, 2022 10:32:13 GMT -6
throw the March 2008 snow in that mix. BRTN and I both got about 14-15 inches in that baby. overnight that night was still to this day that hardest snowfall I've ever watched. Como, I only got about 8-9" from that one IMBY...the dry slot came in for a bit and shut down the 3"/hr stuff while it was still parked over N/W County. Still the heaviest I've ever seen it snow, with thunder in the distance. Pure bliss. ohhhh, gotcha. I was having some aging memory problems, haha. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 31, 2022 10:33:00 GMT -6
I'm pushing in all the chips...20-24" IMBY Let's do this. How much for Union lol You haven't made a map in years. You should do that You know your only getting 1" |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 10:33:30 GMT -6
Canadian actually a bit north with the sleet line ..it kinda sucks, but..lol
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 10:33:38 GMT -6
Can someone plz link to the NWS winter weather forecast chart page if it still exists? I can't navigate gub'mint pages to save my soul. 99 had it |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 10:34:50 GMT -6
Good morning... I picked a bad week to stop drinking.............................................................................................................diet coke. Ok... yes... definitely some convective potential... which would be nice at devouring the warm wedge along the edge from time to time. With so much to juggle with forecast, planning, etc... not much time to share details of thoughts... except those famous words... STEADY AS SHE GOES Nothing in what has arrived this morning changes the forecast I pushed last night. I acknowledge that the mostly snow area may need to get bumped up... but 9 to 12 inches is a pretty good start up there for sure. Second... I really like were I sit on the northern transition zone with 1-2 of sleet and 5-7 of snow... or a total of stuff of 6-9 inches. Could it be more... absolutely. But here again... 6-9 is a good start. Down south... the "ice zones" may be too snowy as the line between a couple of inches of sleet/snow and just freezing rain may be razor thin... but I can't see anything out there to improve on what I already have. The screaming message is a major winter winter storm is on the way with major to extreme impacts across the entire region...ranging from big snows and near blizzard conditions north of I-70 to a significant ice storm south of the Kaskaskia River into far southeast Missouri. Time to get my other stuff done before I officially go on the clock!  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 10:35:24 GMT -6
Canadian actually a bit north with the sleet line ..it kinda sucks, but..lol In line with it's younger brother. Finishes strong |
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 31, 2022 10:35:51 GMT -6
That March 8th storm is still the heaviest snow I have ever seen. We had to have been approaching 4"/hr at points. I think Ballwin ended up with 12 or 13" out of that one in a pretty short period of time.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 10:36:36 GMT -6
Good morning... I picked a bad week to stop drinking.............................................................................................................diet coke. Ok... yes... definitely some convective potential... which would be nice at devouring the warm wedge along the edge from time to time. With so much to juggle with forecast, planning, etc... not much time to share details of thoughts... except those famous words... STEADY AS SHE GOES Nothing in what has arrived this morning changes the forecast I pushed last night. I acknowledge that the mostly snow area may need to get bumped up... but 9 to 12 inches is a pretty good start up there for sure. Second... I really like were I sit on the northern transition zone with 1-2 of sleet and 5-7 of snow... or a total of stuff of 6-9 inches. Could it be more... absolutely. But here again... 6-9 is a good start. Down south... the "ice zones" may be too snowy as the line between a couple of inches of sleet/snow and just freezing rain may be razor thin... but I can't see anything out there to improve on what I already have. The screaming message is a major winter winter storm is on the way with major to extreme impacts across the entire region...ranging from big snows and near blizzard conditions north of I-70 to a significant ice storm south of the Kaskaskia River into far southeast Missouri. Time to get my other stuff done before I officially go on the clock! Put some crown in that diet coke and go 10-15" with locally higher spots.  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2022 10:36:47 GMT -6
I'm pushing in all the chips...20-24" IMBY Let's do this. How much for Union lol You haven't made a map in years. You should do that i didnt think Union was getting any snow. maybe 2 more weeks. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 10:37:06 GMT -6
Canadian actually a bit north with the sleet line ..it kinda sucks, but..lol In line with it's younger brother. Finishes strong true |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 10:45:13 GMT -6
Positive snowfall depth change from the 12z GEFS This is how much "stuff" it thinks will be on the ground  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 10:46:14 GMT -6
Ukmet is a great run colder more snow vs sleet 12” for metro at 10-1 ratios. Probably 15-16” with Kuchera
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 31, 2022 10:46:37 GMT -6
Ukie, a little less than last night, but 8-12" for the metro..at 10:1
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