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Post by amstilost on Jan 31, 2022 22:10:59 GMT -6
Anyone know if the second wave has any sleet contamination with it. Judging by the 850mb low it shows -8* at 6am Thurs. morn.
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Post by yypc on Jan 31, 2022 22:13:07 GMT -6
Ya I do worry that these high numbers are going to bust with sleet! Does anyone remember Sleetmagedddin? Like werr we seeing these high numbers and then it busted with most of metro area seeing 4-6 inches of sleet. How could anyone forget that lol. I had to take a train back from Chicago to get back in town before it started because all the flights were cancelled. Really wish I just wouldve stayed to experience a real snowstorm. Also really hope this storm isnt similar in precip type. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 22:13:29 GMT -6
No not for metro maybe way down south
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 31, 2022 22:15:50 GMT -6
Ya I do worry that these high numbers are going to bust with sleet! Does anyone remember Sleetmagedddin? Like werr we seeing these high numbers and then it busted with most of metro area seeing 4-6 inches of sleet. How could anyone forget that lol. I had to take a train back from Chicago to get back in town before it started because all the flights were cancelled. Really wish I just wouldve stayed to experience a real snowstorm. Also really hope this storm isnt similar in precip type. What I was really trying to say was. Does anyone remember what the models were saying leading up to the storm. I think I remember us all waiting for the sleet to change over(never did) Trowel to move through and never did. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 22:17:37 GMT -6
You can probably go back and read the old thread notes if it’s still there
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 31, 2022 22:18:13 GMT -6
Looks to me like the 00z GFS has the first wave being stronger and second weaker and a bit further south.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 31, 2022 22:19:06 GMT -6
You can probably go back and read the old thread notes if it’s still there Shoooot I wanted a quicker answer. 🤣 |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 22:23:14 GMT -6
GEFS is still a beast, now has the 16-18” band covering the metro… Wow
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 22:24:36 GMT -6
One of the “Snows “ could post the map that would be great. For all you late nighters keep up the model output reports .
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Post by stlweatherguy - Hillsboro, MO on Jan 31, 2022 22:24:53 GMT -6
If I remember correctly that storm jumped northwest at the very last minute as that sucker wrapped up.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 31, 2022 22:25:29 GMT -6
The GFS IS SNOW PORN. I am so glade I was so wrong about this system GFS & GEFS 10-1 RATIO. & GFS KUCHERA:    |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 31, 2022 22:26:39 GMT -6
So what would someone have to do to curse this?
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 22:27:07 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 22:29:47 GMT -6
GEFS is still a beast, now has the 16-18” band covering the metro… Wow Crazy stuff  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 22:33:54 GMT -6
Chance of 12” or more of snow from the GEFS  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 22:36:38 GMT -6
GEM is good. Goes along with RGEM where sleet cuts into totals. But all systems remain go
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 22:37:19 GMT -6
Chance of 12” or more of snow from the GEFS Wow |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2022 22:37:21 GMT -6
Gem is still the warmest model with sleet until Wednesday evening only has 8-12” for metro:) hopefully it’s wrong
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Post by amstilost on Jan 31, 2022 22:40:43 GMT -6
Kind of bizarre that Boston was forecast to get rain at the end of this week and the GFS has another 16" with this storm and another 4" a few days later. The Euro has no snow for Boston with our storm. One of the models is going to drop out with this. Rooting for GFS.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 31, 2022 22:49:30 GMT -6
UKmet is really solid as well. Steady as she goes. Tomorrow will be big.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2022 22:49:48 GMT -6
Positive snow depth mean is 14-16” for the metro on the GEFS  |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 31, 2022 22:51:05 GMT -6
So when does the winter storm warning become real?
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 31, 2022 22:53:50 GMT -6
So when does the winter storm warning become real? You mean when does NWS change the watches to warnings? |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 31, 2022 22:54:18 GMT -6
Looks like I have 1.25" of QPF with the second wave on the Ukie. That is after 1.35" of rain. Hopefully all snow.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 31, 2022 22:55:31 GMT -6
Positive snow depth mean is 14-16” for the metro on the GEFS I don't think I've ever seen so much consistency. Lets hope it's the winner. |
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Post by yypc on Jan 31, 2022 22:56:40 GMT -6
So when does the winter storm warning become real? You mean when does NWS change the watches to warnings? They said on twitter probably tonight |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 31, 2022 22:57:19 GMT -6
Wow Snowstorm, I'm in the 14-16" also. There has to be some sleet for me down here in west central Jeffco to lower that a little anyway. But still WOW.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2022 23:06:45 GMT -6
I am working under the assumption that the models are a little too generous with snow potential Wednesday morning and I still favor historical precedent which is for a lot sleet and some snow at the head of the storm. I especially think the latest NAM... while a thing of beauty... may be a few inches too robust. That shaves some off the totals.
For now... I'm holding steady with a grand total of 6-9 (with 1-2 of that being sleet). I absolutely agree more is possible. But this being a two part storm... the road crews may have a chance to do some catch up after a big hit Wednesday morning even if it does develop.
So... for now... I'm holding steady...with one exception... I bumped the mostly snow zone up for 9-12 to 9-14. There's just no getting around the big potential where the precip remains mostly snow.
Caveat... keep the forecast numbers the same and focus more on impact of ice/snow/sleet, power outages and blizzard like conditions late Wednesday night and Thursday.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 31, 2022 23:15:53 GMT -6
I was surprised to see the SREF start snowing around 2 am Wed and dump 3", Then a 10 hour lull before wave 2 hits with additional 4"
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 31, 2022 23:22:06 GMT -6
It's tempting to want to bump up snow forecasts a bit for the metro given the GFS/GEFS but unless the Euro comes up with a big run I think staying the course would be right call for now for a few reasons:
1) The QPF once precip changes to all snow ranges from about 0.7 to 1.2" amongst UK/GEM/NAM/GFS/FV3. Models tend to run a bit wet during winter events so being conservative take away maybe 25% of that.
2) Assume warm layer and sleet may hang on for a bit longer than modeled.
3) All global models now show the main wave in a steady state or weakening as it passes by as seen by the closed 850mb low getting stretched into an elongated wave. And I'm no longer seeing signs of CSI enhancement in the Mg/Theta-e cross sections either.
So the snow/sleet "stuff" accumulation may vary quite a bit across the metro with say 6-12" from southeast to northwest with potential for 12+" north/northwest of the metro area.
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