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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 31, 2022 23:25:23 GMT -6
I am working under the assumption that the models are a little too generous with snow potential Wednesday morning and I still favor historical precedent which is for a lot sleet and some snow at the head of the storm. I especially think the latest NAM... while a thing of beauty... may be a few inches too robust. That shaves some off the totals. For now... I'm holding steady with a grand total of 6-9 (with 1-2 of that being sleet). I absolutely agree more is possible. But this being a two part storm... the road crews may have a chance to do some catch up after a big hit Wednesday morning even if it does develop. So... for now... I'm holding steady...with one exception... I bumped the mostly snow zone up for 9-12 to 9-14. There's just no getting around the big potential where the precip remains mostly snow. Caveat... keep the forecast numbers the same and focus more on impact of ice/snow/sleet, power outages and blizzard like conditions late Wednesday night and Thursday. Chris I have a doctors appointment Friday afternoon a check up after recovering from Covid. Could the roads be in decent shape by Friday afternoon if the Snow ends by Thursday afternoon? |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 31, 2022 23:31:32 GMT -6
I feel pretty confident the major snowfall February futility at Lambert is ending this week.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 0:07:01 GMT -6
I am working under the assumption that the models are a little too generous with snow potential Wednesday morning and I still favor historical precedent which is for a lot sleet and some snow at the head of the storm. I especially think the latest NAM... while a thing of beauty... may be a few inches too robust. That shaves some off the totals. For now... I'm holding steady with a grand total of 6-9 (with 1-2 of that being sleet). I absolutely agree more is possible. But this being a two part storm... the road crews may have a chance to do some catch up after a big hit Wednesday morning even if it does develop. So... for now... I'm holding steady...with one exception... I bumped the mostly snow zone up for 9-12 to 9-14. There's just no getting around the big potential where the precip remains mostly snow. Caveat... keep the forecast numbers the same and focus more on impact of ice/snow/sleet, power outages and blizzard like conditions late Wednesday night and Thursday. Chris I have a doctors appointment Friday afternoon a check up after recovering from Covid. Could the roads be in decent shape by Friday afternoon if the Snow ends by Thursday afternoon? That's a question for MoDot... it will all depend on how they handle the roads. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 0:10:23 GMT -6
How could anyone forget that lol. I had to take a train back from Chicago to get back in town before it started because all the flights were cancelled. Really wish I just wouldve stayed to experience a real snowstorm. Also really hope this storm isnt similar in precip type. What I was really trying to say was. Does anyone remember what the models were saying leading up to the storm. I think I remember us all waiting for the sleet to change over(never did) Trowel to move through and never did. That was forecast to be a sleetmagedon for days for most of metro STL up until one last NAM run made a sudden jog east dramatically upping the ante in the STL metro. A Blizzard Warning was issued that morning and it immediately crashed and burned. The original forecast would have been perfect. It is one reason I so strongly resist the temptation to make huge swings at the last minute. Especially right along the transition zone. I've always said... better to be wrong 1x than 4,5,6 times. Every effort should be made to stay as close to an original forecast as possible. That was a tough storm. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 1, 2022 0:10:29 GMT -6
Let’s hope the euro is wrong about the icing
FRAM chart has 0.30-0.50” in the metro
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Post by amstilost on Feb 1, 2022 0:10:51 GMT -6
Hoping for another bulls eye in Jeffco with the second wave on Euro, looks good at Hr60 over Springfield, MO
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2022 0:11:14 GMT -6
So what would someone have to do to curse this? Ask that question.... lol. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 1, 2022 0:14:30 GMT -6
No matter how you slice it, this will be a major storm for the metro. It's been a while since we have seen all types of winter precipitation like this. With the rain, changing to sleet, the ground will cool fast. I know around my house, the ground really hasn't thawed out yet. All we will need is thundersnow, and it's '82 all over again!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 1, 2022 0:53:32 GMT -6
Looks like the 10:1 chart drops anywhere from 7-10” in the metro on the euro
Not quite as crazy as some of the other models lol
It is noticeably further south with the warning level snow in the CWA
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Post by fojginmo on Feb 1, 2022 2:45:38 GMT -6
And there’s the Winter Storm Warning.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2022 2:47:05 GMT -6
Is it just me, or did a tropical storm develop in the NW Gulf?
Crazy looking MCV
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 1, 2022 2:56:52 GMT -6
Is it just me, or did a tropical storm develop in the NW Gulf?
Crazy looking MCV
I seen that! 🤔 |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2022 4:17:47 GMT -6
OMG...the 06z NAM looks AMAZING!!!
There's a BLIZZARD coming!!! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2022 4:57:17 GMT -6
NAM showing a 50-55kt LLJ on the backside Thursday with heavy snow falling. It usually overdoes the wind a bit, but DAMN!
It's also starting to pick up on the mesobanding potential just N of the Metro Wednesday with intense low/mid-level Fgen developing. It does look sleety in the Metro until later in the afternoon though. But Wednesday night into Thursday looks like PURE WINTER.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 5:16:47 GMT -6
06z update
Nam and HRRR are a bit warmer with more sleet and ice S of 70 for wave one but looked absolutely locked and loaded for wave 2.
Gfs continues to lead the way with highest snow totals and most consistency. Crushed.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2022 5:17:31 GMT -6
NAM has a very strong TROWAL developing up 44/70 Thursday AM...1-2"/hr+ stuff
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2022 5:20:08 GMT -6
06z update Nam and HRRR are a bit warmer with more sleet and ice S of 70 for wave one but looked absolutely locked and loaded for wave 2. Gfs continues to lead the way with highest snow totals and most consistency. Crushed. Yeah, the 06z NAM actually develops an 850mb low Wednesday that rides up over the Metro...definitely looks sleety until it passes by. The 00z EURO was suggesting this too.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2022 5:34:55 GMT -6
06z GFS definitely a bit cooler with the profile for the Metro Wednesday AM and has a well-defined TROWAL aimed at areas along/N of 44/70. Friggin' beautiful! I'm feeling very good about 12"+ amounts up this way...and possibly extending down into the Metro if the sleet transitions a bit sooner. I'd like to see the 12z data before drawing up a forecast though.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 5:39:29 GMT -6
 Much better snow map. A little confused about the ice accumulation numbers along 44 and 64. Those seem low. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2022 5:40:22 GMT -6
The warmer solutions like the NAM are printing out some concerning amounts of ZR across the Metro tonight into tomorrow AM...potentially 0.25"+ of glaze. The NAM actually has a bullseye of 0.5" up this way but some of that that may be sleet.
Not good if you want the power to stay on.
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Post by birddog on Feb 1, 2022 5:48:22 GMT -6
The warmer solutions like the NAM are printing out some concerning amounts of ZR across the Metro tonight into tomorrow AM...potentially 0.25"+ of glaze. The NAM actually has a bullseye of 0.5" up this way but some of that that may be sleet. Not good if you want the power to stay on. I will take no ice please! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2022 5:53:14 GMT -6
The warmer solutions like the NAM are printing out some concerning amounts of ZR across the Metro tonight into tomorrow AM...potentially 0.25"+ of glaze. The NAM actually has a bullseye of 0.5" up this way but some of that that may be sleet. Not good if you want the power to stay on. I will take no ice please! I suspect it will be mainly sleet and snow up this way...but it's concerning for the Metro and points S/SE for sure. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2022 5:56:40 GMT -6
Still no mention of blowing or drifting in the disco...what's up with that? 12"+ of snowfall with 30-35mph gusts is very significant. There was a similar storm in 96 I believe that blew roads shut up here. This one may be worse...
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 6:06:27 GMT -6
 6z euro ice map. Shows very little sleet and don’t have soundings uploaded yet. |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Feb 1, 2022 6:08:27 GMT -6
Much better snow map. A little confused about the ice accumulation numbers along 44 and 64. Those seem low. My guess for the ice numbers being lower is accretion is never as high as modeled because of latent heat at onset(unless somehow there is a wave of sleet prior, another frequent wildcard) |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 6:12:56 GMT -6
I agree with that but we are talking 50% less when it comes to accretion. Not 75-80%
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 6:15:45 GMT -6
No real surprises on euro.
Really shows some problematic zr S of 70.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 1, 2022 6:21:22 GMT -6
The 3k Nam puts almost all my eggs into second wave, almost. .55"QPF before freezing temps at 6am Wed. Another .55 that I hope is sleet and not frz rain. A break, then .625" with second wave with more looking to move through at the end of 60hr run. Should/could be fun.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2022 6:36:01 GMT -6
6z euro ice map. Shows very little sleet and don’t have soundings uploaded yet. I’m seeing more of a sleet sounding on euro instead of zr until you get about 15 miles south of St. Louis. Then it’s zr. Tough forecast. someone is going to get .25” of zr, an inch of sleet and 6+“ of snow. That’s about as impactful of a storm as you’re going to get. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 1, 2022 6:39:57 GMT -6
6z euro ice map. Shows very little sleet and don’t have soundings uploaded yet. I’m seeing more of a sleet sounding on euro instead of zr until you get about 15 miles south of St. Louis. Then it’s zr. Tough forecast. someone is going to get .25” of zr, an inch of sleet and 6+“ of snow. That’s about as impactful of a storm as you’re going to get. The ice is starting to bug me over here. I am far enough east (not as far as J) to think its gonna be a bigger problem than not. Yay. |
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