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Post by dmbstl on Feb 2, 2022 14:02:27 GMT -6
And the number shaving begins... We knew this was coming. When was the last time we had a 6-9, 7-10, 8-12 forecast and actually got that? Seems like most of our storms are busts. |
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 2, 2022 14:02:37 GMT -6
No doubt you will get 14" on Mt St. Peters. Dmbstl...it happens every time I don't know why it surprises me. Should be a solid 2-4" in Ballwin by tomorrow lol
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2022 14:02:44 GMT -6
Also nam looks great for the metro tonight, solid 5 to 8 on kuchera and ratios could be higher.
Also very windy some of the blowing snow I have with drifting around my home is something I have not witnessed very much in my back yard.
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Post by mchafin on Feb 2, 2022 14:07:17 GMT -6
Not sure about the rest of you, but as long as I cannot see any blades of grass, I’ll be good.
I wonder if there is concern with either trajectory or sleet contamination overnight?
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
Member is Online
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Post by steve on Feb 2, 2022 14:07:30 GMT -6
And the number shaving begins... We knew this was coming. When was the last time we had a 6-9, 7-10, 8-12 forecast and actually got that? Seems like most of our storms are busts. Tell me where the forecast has been wrong so for? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2022 14:09:32 GMT -6
I don't really call an additional 6-10 inches "number shaving" I think some on here have had this apocalypse mentality when in reality, this storm is performing as advertised. Models have done an outstanding job of laying this storm out and in the end, this will have been an outstanding storm to follow. Here's to tonight It's always the same story from the same people...
Every. Single. Storm.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2022 14:10:34 GMT -6
I wont get 14 but I am just stating ranges. And that the forecast is on track from what chris forecasted. I do feel like along and north of missouri river in metro do possibly seem to be in the best spot for the overlapping from the 2 waves. In addition light fluffy snow continues even with light returns.
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stormspotter63640
Junior Forecaster
Farmington MO
Posts: 273
Snowfall Events: 11/21/15. First flurries!!!
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Post by stormspotter63640 on Feb 2, 2022 14:12:33 GMT -6
FAM SREF mean plume is up to 7.3”.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2022 14:12:42 GMT -6
I dont mean to upset anyone, I just feel like the forecast is doing very well and verifying
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Post by mchafin on Feb 2, 2022 14:13:06 GMT -6
I don't really call an additional 6-10 inches "number shaving" I think some on here have had this apocalypse mentality when in reality, this storm is performing as advertised. Models have done an outstanding job of laying this storm out and in the end, this will have been an outstanding storm to follow. Here's to tonight It's always the same story from the same people...
Every. Single. Storm.
The difference between 1” of sleet and 4” of snow was a fine line that we only figured out where it would be once the starm finally started going. While frustrating, it is what it is. Next wave, please. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2022 14:13:09 GMT -6
18z NAM looks great with the final wave later tonight into tomorrow along/SE of 44/70. I'd say another 5-8" on top of what has already fallen is looking likely for the Metro. And definitely good potential for blowing and drifting with a 45kt LLJ noted during the morning hours.
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Post by scmhack on Feb 2, 2022 14:14:16 GMT -6
I wouldn’t count out Alton north getting 14+. It’s been crazy out this way. Somewhere around 5” I’d have to guess off drifts and dips.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Feb 2, 2022 14:14:58 GMT -6
Radar starting to fill back in SW of Springfield MO.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2022 14:16:00 GMT -6
It's always the same story from the same people...
Every. Single. Storm.
The difference between 1” of sleet and 4” of snow was a fine line that we only figured out where it would be once the starm finally started going. While frustrating, it is what it is. Next wave, please. I didn't see much if any data that supported 4" of snowfall across the S Metro with this first round...just saying. Had the sleet changed over quicker, it would have been doable, but that wasn't really supposed to happen down your way. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 2, 2022 14:16:44 GMT -6
And the number shaving begins... We knew this was coming. When was the last time we had a 6-9, 7-10, 8-12 forecast and actually got that? Seems like most of our storms are busts. My forecast stands... no adjustments to be made. I will ride it to the finish line. |
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 2, 2022 14:18:09 GMT -6
Well..5-9" is nice if it happens, but it's a far cry from the 9-13" my forecast started with this morning. Btw Chris..none of this is directed at you. You are always rock solid about maintaining a forecast. Some other folks though like to mess with numbers as the event unfolds and that irritates me. Pick some numbers and stick with them.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 2, 2022 14:20:48 GMT -6
Well..5-9" is nice if it happens, but it's a far cry from the 9-13" my forecast started with this morning. Btw Chris..none of this is directed at you. You are always rock solid about maintaining a forecast. Some other folks though like to mess with numbers as the event unfolds and that irritates me. Pick some numbers and stick with them. SO... if you get 9 inches its a perfect forecast. |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 2, 2022 14:22:00 GMT -6
The 1540 850-700mb thickness line is at STL now but just northwest of JeffCo still. The 5400 1000-500mb thickness line is just to my south/southwest now, barely. This is from the 2pm update.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 2, 2022 14:22:30 GMT -6
The difference between 1” of sleet and 4” of snow was a fine line that we only figured out where it would be once the starm finally started going. While frustrating, it is what it is. Next wave, please. I didn't see much if any data that supported 4" of snowfall across the S Metro with this first round...just saying. Had the sleet changed over quicker, it would have been doable, but that wasn't really supposed to happen down your way. The snow line pretty consistently stalled out roughly along 44 in the metro on the modeling with wave one. That was confirmed with a persistent warm wedge between 850mb and 700mb on the soundings. But even then models were trying to throw down some 4”+ totals around here. I thought there was maybe a slight chance dynamics could overcome that, but never doubt the WAA. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2022 14:23:06 GMT -6
Looks like the greatest potential for 12"+ totals is going to set up roughly along and either side of a line drawn from Middletown to Litchfield. The NAM is showing 6"+ along that line with the final wave. Definitely a good signal for strong upglide and increasing mid-level frontogenesis as we come underneath the RER of the outbound jetstreak. Classic.
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kkwhit
Weather Weenie
Ballwin, MO
Posts: 40
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Post by kkwhit on Feb 2, 2022 14:23:55 GMT -6
I always find that being negative takes way more energy than just enjoying what comes. Everyone in the viewing area is getting something, some more than others. Enjoy the ride!
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Post by scmhack on Feb 2, 2022 14:28:09 GMT -6
It’s still snowing in Alton albeit flurries to light snow but this is far from over and I have weak echos. Hold strong everyone.
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Post by mchafin on Feb 2, 2022 14:28:33 GMT -6
The difference between 1” of sleet and 4” of snow was a fine line that we only figured out where it would be once the starm finally started going. While frustrating, it is what it is. Next wave, please. I didn't see much if any data that supported 4" of snowfall across the S Metro with this first round...just saying. Had the sleet changed over quicker, it would have been doable, but that wasn't really supposed to happen down your way. I’m making the point that it was fine line between winners and losers, that’s all. We knew it’d be there. I was hoping it’d set up south of me. But alas. |
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Post by mchafin on Feb 2, 2022 14:28:47 GMT -6
I didn't see much if any data that supported 4" of snowfall across the S Metro with this first round...just saying. Had the sleet changed over quicker, it would have been doable, but that wasn't really supposed to happen down your way. The snow line pretty consistently stalled out roughly along 44 in the metro on the modeling with wave one. That was confirmed with a persistent warm wedge between 850mb and 700mb on the soundings. But even then models were trying to throw down some 4”+ totals around here. I thought there was maybe a slight chance dynamics could overcome that, but never doubt the WAA. No kidding. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Feb 2, 2022 14:32:03 GMT -6
Ending wave one with 1/4 inch of sleet with a touch of snow mixed in. Under that a light glazing
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 2, 2022 14:32:57 GMT -6
M3.6" in the Harvester area.
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Post by stlweatherguy - Hillsboro, MO on Feb 2, 2022 14:33:33 GMT -6
The NWS radar is hard to work with. I need something else. It is a bit of a monstrosity. lol.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Feb 2, 2022 14:35:05 GMT -6
Well..5-9" is nice if it happens, but it's a far cry from the 9-13" my forecast started with this morning. Btw Chris..none of this is directed at you. You are always rock solid about maintaining a forecast. Some other folks though like to mess with numbers as the event unfolds and that irritates me. Pick some numbers and stick with them. Well..5-9" is nice if it happens, but it's a far cry from the 9-13" my forecast started with this morning. Btw Chris..none of this is directed at you. You are always rock solid about maintaining a forecast. Some other folks though like to mess with numbers as the event unfolds and that irritates me. Pick some numbers and stick with them. SO... if you get 9 inches its a perfect forecast. Trust the pros and the ones in here that are relied on for a realistic approach... The rest are hobbyist like myself. Tonight I feel great about what I see to unfold. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2022 14:36:38 GMT -6
Was the GFS was a bit too aggressive with the snowfall down there? I pretty well switched to using the NAM and hi-res models by yesterday and they showed a definite stall of the mid-level cold air and I think the EC did too. Coz mentioned this would probably happen as the advection processes became neutral with the wave working up the boundary. The 850mb boundary was the dividing line for sure and it slowed and stalled right over the Metro as you'd expect, lol.
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Feb 2, 2022 14:37:20 GMT -6
Well I have measured in several spots. Some a tad bit over 4, and some right on 4 inches, here in silex. Temp is 18.
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