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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2022 9:43:27 GMT -6
Models showing a pretty active southern jet starting middle of next week through end of month. The 17th-18th still looks like an interesting time frame on the GEFS and EPS It takes a lot of mental fortitude to track anything beyond day 7/8 in my mind. Some chatter starting about a nice severe weather setup around the time you are mentioning, so we shall see. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 7, 2022 9:54:09 GMT -6
The 17th-18th still looks like an interesting time frame on the GEFS and EPS It takes a lot of mental fortitude to track anything beyond day 7/8 in my mind. Some chatter starting about a nice severe weather setup around the time you are mentioning, so we shall see. Meteograms and mean QPF/height lines are all I look at this far out. Just trying to get an idea what the general pattern may be at that time. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 7, 2022 9:54:34 GMT -6
The 17th-18th still looks like an interesting time frame on the GEFS and EPS It takes a lot of mental fortitude to track anything beyond day 7/8 in my mind. Some chatter starting about a nice severe weather setup around the time you are mentioning, so we shall see. We could talk about reaching 60 tomorrow? Just trying to get a sense of pattern changes. We were mentioning GHD storm back on the 18/19th of January. This week and weekend look about as boring as could be. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2022 10:08:44 GMT -6
It takes a lot of mental fortitude to track anything beyond day 7/8 in my mind. Some chatter starting about a nice severe weather setup around the time you are mentioning, so we shall see. We could talk about reaching 60 tomorrow? Just trying to get a sense of pattern changes. We were mentioning GHD storm back on the 18/19th of January. This week and weekend look about as boring as could be. Not critiquing at all. That’s why the forum is here. Just wish there was Spring Training or something to fill the gap that is the next week. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 7, 2022 10:48:51 GMT -6
I love seeing the animal tracks as the only evidence trespassing. I noticed going down to Farmington yesterday that the snow looked much like there was much less than at the house off the side of the Hwy 67 across the many fields down there. I thought they had more ice/sleet but about the same amount of snow as I had in De Soto. Lots of animal tracks heading out into the fields. Notice: There will be a "Grass Watch" hoisted today. Be on the lookout for possible blades of grass trying to make an appearance around the area. A subtle reminder to cut your grass shorter next fall.  Indeed.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2022 12:01:15 GMT -6
Snowstorm and Cards sucked me in.
12z ggem is pretty freaking cool at D9/10.
Come on euro 😂
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 7, 2022 12:08:09 GMT -6
I love seeing the animal tracks as the only evidence trespassing. I noticed going down to Farmington yesterday that the snow looked much like there was much less than at the house off the side of the Hwy 67 across the many fields down there. I thought they had more ice/sleet but about the same amount of snow as I had in De Soto. Lots of animal tracks heading out into the fields. Notice: There will be a "Grass Watch" hoisted today. Be on the lookout for possible blades of grass trying to make an appearance around the area. A subtle reminder to cut your grass shorter next fall. Indeed. Ummmmm….is that blood? |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 7, 2022 12:27:52 GMT -6
Indeed. Ummmmm….is that blood? Just a flesh wound |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 7, 2022 12:58:02 GMT -6
I love seeing the animal tracks as the only evidence trespassing. I noticed going down to Farmington yesterday that the snow looked much like there was much less than at the house off the side of the Hwy 67 across the many fields down there. I thought they had more ice/sleet but about the same amount of snow as I had in De Soto. Lots of animal tracks heading out into the fields. Notice: There will be a "Grass Watch" hoisted today. Be on the lookout for possible blades of grass trying to make an appearance around the area. A subtle reminder to cut your grass shorter next fall. Indeed. Grazed coyote? |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 7, 2022 13:10:06 GMT -6
I love seeing the animal tracks as the only evidence trespassing. I noticed going down to Farmington yesterday that the snow looked much like there was much less than at the house off the side of the Hwy 67 across the many fields down there. I thought they had more ice/sleet but about the same amount of snow as I had in De Soto. Lots of animal tracks heading out into the fields. Notice: There will be a "Grass Watch" hoisted today. Be on the lookout for possible blades of grass trying to make an appearance around the area. A subtle reminder to cut your grass shorter next fall. Indeed.  Are you having sausage/jerky or dumplin's with it? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 7, 2022 14:18:03 GMT -6
Suspected fresh bobcat kill on the paw. Deep timber.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2022 15:12:22 GMT -6
12z euro has the same storm as the ggem towards the D10 period.
Euro ensembles are supportive as well.
Could be severe weather, could be snow, could go poof. But there is a signal translating to the operational models now.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 7, 2022 15:39:02 GMT -6
Caught Ryan Hall on YouTube today. He said signs are there the week after Valentines Day for something winter like brewing in the mid part of the country. Didn't say it would, but factors point to it. He also said there is some sign for severe weather last part of February, but saidcits too far out to get to concerned.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 7, 2022 16:54:36 GMT -6
12z euro has the same storm as the ggem towards the D10 period. Euro ensembles are supportive as well. Could be severe weather, could be snow, could go poof. But there is a signal translating to the operational models now. Yeah, definitely something brewing. Op GFS has had something then for quite a few days now. Different flavors each run, but it’s sniffing something out. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 7, 2022 18:39:39 GMT -6
The large scale pattern later next week looks to feature a swipe from the vortex followed by cut off energy ejection behind it, with potential for split flow phasing across the Central US. This isn't too far off from what we saw on GHD...actually, some of the model depictions are downright spooky in comparison. But I suspect it won't be of that caliber. Definitely a pretty solid signal for a winter storm to develop...the question at this range is where at.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 8, 2022 1:07:20 GMT -6
We will make a legit run at 60 Tuesday afternoon.
End of next week into next weekend look very wet and stormy. I cant rule out severe weather, nor can I rule out backend snow with possible setup for secondary development.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 8, 2022 7:45:03 GMT -6
Suspected fresh bobcat kill on the paw. Deep timber. I recall a few years back sitting in a hunting blind seeing a wounded bobcat crossing the field. He/she was favoring the right paw and limping some. In the back of my head I kept hearing the property owner that let us hunt there saying, "If you see a bobcat, take it out, they are a nuisance." I didn't, and still wonder about this. I 'feel' that, without hard evidence of a problem predator, it is better to leave nature alone. She sure has seemed to do better over millions of years vs. man's short record on this planet. Just my $.02. Again, that property owner had over 80 acres so he likely seen 'problem' predators. I have not on the small acreage I hunt now. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 8, 2022 8:19:17 GMT -6
They can definitely be a problem to homesteads with livestock like chickens and ducks. And they can greatly reduce game populations when their numbers grow. I know of a property in Green Co. that a buddy hunts deer on that has a bobcat den and the deer have all skedaddled. It just depends on the situation.
This may have just been a wounded animal as well. Hard to say. I didn't bother with tracking it.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 8, 2022 8:57:32 GMT -6
Looks like models have trended towards a warmer pattern ahead of the cut off energy ejection next week with mid/upper-level ridging developing ahead of it. That looks like more of a heavy rainfall/severe wx pattern opposed to a winter storm. But it will all depend on the timing of waves coming through the N stream. One major difference with this storm is the upstream surface ridging looks more subdued...and even non-existent on some runs. So if these trends continue, cold air may be lacking for the first part of the storm at least. As Chris said, maybe there's some secondary potential there. A lot of possible outcomes with that one...but still a strong signal for a significant storm system around the 16th-18th. The Gulf looks to be wide open again with strong SE ridging which signals another potentially high QPF storm system. The 00z EC looks like rain/storms to ice to wet snow with multiple waves.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 8, 2022 9:37:29 GMT -6
I would prefer not as much snow as what we just had if it snows anymore this month.
It was fun, but at the same time it was a ton to shovel. My old landscape company I used to work for said that it was one of the worst storms because not only was it a ton, but also because of the staffing shortage. It just about broke them mentally and physically.
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 8, 2022 9:54:44 GMT -6
The other thing about this time of year is getting glimpses of the spring with longer days and warmer temps and then the roller coaster starts again! The weather has a mind of its own!
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 8, 2022 9:57:12 GMT -6
I have a friend up near Winnipeg who told me they are starting to talk about spring flooding already but he’s had 36 inches of snow already! They are thankful because they’ve had bad drought!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 8, 2022 10:34:32 GMT -6
Something I find a little interesting - there is a slight uptick in arctic sea ice coverage over the last 2-3 years, when compared to the previous 8 or 9 years. It may just be noise, but there is a slight trend there back in the other direction. nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/Also, nobody wants to talk about the GFS eh? Looks awfully familiar. Trends... |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 8, 2022 10:35:12 GMT -6
Don't look at the 12z GFS run for latter part of next week.
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 8, 2022 10:43:30 GMT -6
Don't look at the 12z GFS run for latter part of next week. Wow!!! |
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Feb 8, 2022 10:45:51 GMT -6
The large scale pattern later next week looks to feature a swipe from the vortex followed by cut off energy ejection behind it, with potential for split flow phasing across the Central US. This isn't too far off from what we saw on GHD...actually, some of the model depictions are downright spooky in comparison. But I suspect it won't be of that caliber. Definitely a pretty solid signal for a winter storm to develop...the question at this range is where at. Spooky indeed. Almost a carbon copy of GHD. gfycat.com/obviouspalebetafish |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 8, 2022 10:50:44 GMT -6
Please noooo. Although it's the the gfs so another 10 inches is a lock as it did best with the last storm at that range. If that happens it better be it til next year, casuse we are near average at 15 to 17 inches for the year already in st.charles county, another storm like that and we are in the 25 to 30 range which is quite a snowy winter in this area.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 8, 2022 10:53:11 GMT -6
They can definitely be a problem to homesteads with livestock like chickens and ducks. And they can greatly reduce game populations when their numbers grow. I know of a property in Green Co. that a buddy hunts deer on that has a bobcat den and the deer have all skedaddled. It just depends on the situation. This may have just been a wounded animal as well. Hard to say. I didn't bother with tracking it. Agree with the situation aspect. It could be since we just moved here two years ago that all my new neighbors have kept them controlled. Same with my 20 acre hunting parcel. We are not there much (except hunting season and occassional walking treks with the grandkids.) and have several neighbors that possibly keep them controlled. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 8, 2022 10:55:10 GMT -6
Don't look at the 12z GFS run for latter part of next week. Not 1, but 2 chances! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 8, 2022 10:57:16 GMT -6
Something I find a little interesting - there is a slight uptick in arctic sea ice coverage over the last 2-3 years, when compared to the previous 8 or 9 years. It may just be noise, but there is a slight trend there back in the other direction. nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/Also, nobody wants to talk about the GFS eh? Looks awfully familiar. Trends... Might be good for earth, but negatively impacts our winter weather in the short term. Low arctic sea ice seems correlated with a disrupted PV. |
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Are you having sausage/jerky or dumplin's with it? 
